7 Charts That Show Why Bitcoin Won't Follow the 2017 Path
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7 Charts That Show Why Bitcoin Won't Follow the 2017 Path
In the run-up to its peak in late 2017, Bitcoin surged over 215% in the 30 trading days prior; the past month's performance has fallen far short of such euphoria...
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Kevin Kelly, Co-founder of Delphi Digital;
Translation: Pan En
No, this isn't the 2017 Bitcoin...
Despite the recent surge, BTC's total market cap still accounts for less than 0.4% of global M2 money supply.
Bitcoin has re-entered the spotlight after taking a backseat during the "DeFi Summer" frenzy. At first, I thought this was just another inter-market move driven by winners reallocating capital back into BTC, but this time feels different—I can't help but notice the landscape beneath our feet is shifting.
I'm writing this at the end of October, shortly after Bitcoin broke through $13,000, amid rising market volatility and a fear index spiking to 40. Fast-forward three weeks, and we're already nearing new all-time highs.
We haven't broken it yet, but reaching a new high in dollar terms would be no small feat. Many skeptics have openly criticized BTC for failing to hit new highs despite such favorable macro conditions, so a strong breakout above $20,000 would reaffirm Bitcoin’s staying power.
But a new high is just the beginning—that's why I want to take a few minutes to discuss the context behind Bitcoin’s latest move.
First, if we compare BTC’s current trajectory with previous ones, the world’s largest crypto asset appears to be on the rise; while not perfectly aligned, the similarities between cycles are striking.
Moreover, $BTC’s monthly RSI has just crossed above 70—for the first time since the late-2017 rally.
For more context, see my earlier tweets:
At the end of 2016, BTC’s monthly RSI first broke above 70, followed by a +1,300% rise before hitting its December 2017 peak.
Reminder: Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Despite BTC’s recent rally, hype around it seems somewhat muted.
On Google Trends, Bitcoin interest—both globally and in the U.S.—is far from reaching 2017 levels.
Bitcoin’s price is now only 12% below its all-time high, yet Google Trends hasn’t come close to its 2017 peak.
That said, I did receive three separate messages on the same day saying, “I think Bitcoin will hit $100K in 2021,” so there’s that too.
The pace of Bitcoin’s price movement is also key to attracting new market participants.
Many financial advisors and portfolio managers cite BTC’s volatility as a primary reason for their hesitation.
Parabolic price action can fuel FOMO, but may also hinder broader adoption among this group.
That said, BTC’s returns over the past month have been relatively unremarkable—at least by its own historical standards.
During the late-2017 run-up, Bitcoin surged over 215% in the 30 trading days before its peak; the past month’s move pales in comparison...
Likewise, although trading volume is within 8% of its all-time high, BTC’s 90-day volatility is near the lower end of its 5-year average range.
Notably, since late March, global M2 money supply has expanded by over $10 trillion. Over the same period, BTC has nearly tripled—but its total market cap still represents only about 0.4% of global M2.
If our thesis proves correct, BTC could replace a meaningful portion of government and sovereign debt in the average investor’s portfolio over the coming years, leading to massive inflows into this nascent asset class.
And if BTC closes November near current levels, it will mark a new monthly closing high—surpassing the December 2017 close just above $14,000.
But remember, the path to the top is never linear—significant price drawdowns in Bitcoin are inevitable.
But make no mistake, this market is maturing.
Bitcoin is capturing the attention of the world’s top investors. It’s penetrating their inner circles.
And crucially, it’s awakening an entire generation to the flaws of today’s financial system—and in the process, building one of the most powerful, passionate communities on Earth.
I don’t know about you, but that doesn’t sound like an asset I’d want to bet against…
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