Roundup: Standard Chartered, Citigroup, Galaxy and Other Institutions' Predictions on Bitcoin's Bottom Price in This Cycle
TechFlow Selected TechFlow Selected
Roundup: Standard Chartered, Citigroup, Galaxy and Other Institutions' Predictions on Bitcoin's Bottom Price in This Cycle
Institutional estimates are concentrated in two ranges: $50,000 to $60,000 and $40,000 to $46,000.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor | WuSay Blockchain
TL;DR
Bitcoin entered a downward cycle after reaching an all-time high of about $126,000 in October 2025. On July 1, 2026, BTC once fell to about $57,800, a maximum drawdown of about 54% from the all-time high; as of July 14, the price rebounded to near $62,000.
As the market enters the bottom-finding stage, institutions such as Standard Chartered Bank, Galaxy Research, CryptoQuant, NYDIG, and 10x Research have successively given their judgments. However, the nature of the predictions varies: some institutions provide a baseline bottom, some only key support levels or pessimistic scenarios, and others are technical targets after breaking below specific price levels.
Combining current public views, institutional predictions are mainly concentrated in two ranges: $50,000 — $60,000 and $40,000 — $46,000; KOL judgments are more scattered, extending as low as below $30,000.
Standard Chartered Bank: $59,000 May Be the Bottom of This Cycle
On June 12, Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered Bank, stated that Bitcoin may have formed a cycle bottom at about $59,000 and believes that this "crypto winter" has ended.
Kendrick attributed the previous market decline to outflows from spot ETFs, decreased purchasing power of digital asset treasury companies such as MicroStrategy, and the transfer of investor funds to AI-related assets. Standard Chartered Bank still maintained a target of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by the end of 2026 at that time.
However, Bitcoin subsequently fell to about $57,800 on July 1, briefly breaking below the $59,000 bottom given by Standard Chartered. Its prediction was relatively close to the actual low, but this cannot yet confirm that the market has completed the final bottoming.
10x Research: Further Downgraded from $55,000 to About $50,000
On June 24, 10x Research founder Markus Thielen stated that Bitcoin may form a low after falling to about $55,000. He believes that a strong US dollar, tightening liquidity, and market seasonal factors may still exert pressure on BTC.
On July 1, 10x Research further updated its Elliott Wave model. The institution previously expected that Bitcoin would complete Wave A decline at about $63,000, then rebound to the $80,000 — $90,000 region, and then fall towards about $50,000 via Wave C. The latest model gives a potential price range of about $46,628–$50,732.
Therefore, 10x Research's judgment has been gradually revised down from the initial $55,000 to near $50,000, but the institution also believes that after Bitcoin falls below $55,000, long-term allocation value will begin to emerge.
CryptoQuant: $53,600 May Constitute a Valuation Bottom
CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno pointed out in a report released in June that Bitcoin had then entered the on-chain valuation range, but demand side remained weak, and the market had not yet shown complete capitulation signals.
The report showed that Bitcoin's Realized Price was about $53,600 at that time. Realized Price reflects the average cost of all BTC at the last on-chain transfer, historically often regarded as an important valuation floor in bear markets.
CryptoQuant also combined indicators such as MVRV Z-Score, viewing $55,000 — $60,000 as a potential bottoming area needing key observation. However, the institution emphasized that only if spot demand, ETF fund flows, and stablecoin liquidity improve simultaneously can the cycle bottom be further confirmed.
Citi: $53,000 in Pessimistic Scenario
On July 1, Citi downgraded Bitcoin's 12-month target price from $112,000 to $82,000, mainly due to continuous outflows from spot ETFs, stagnation in US crypto legislation progress, and weakened investor demand.
In a pessimistic scenario of economic recession and continued ETF outflows, Citi's given Bitcoin valuation is about $53,000.
It should be noted that $53,000 is not the cycle bottom explicitly predicted by Citi, but a 12-month pessimistic scenario valuation based on assumptions of economic recession and continuous fund outflows.
NYDIG: $53,700 is the Cost Line, Extreme Drawdown Scenario is $37,900
NYDIG stated in a report released on June 5 that Bitcoin was then not far from the historical bear market bottom region, but market evidence remained relatively complex, insufficient to confirm the final bottom.
The report views the 1x MVRV level of about $53,700 as an important cost line. This position means Bitcoin's market price is close to the average on-chain cost of all network holders.
NYDIG also calculated that if Bitcoin draws down about 70% from the high of $126,000 in this cycle, the price will fall to about $37,900. However, this figure belongs to a stress scenario derived from referencing historical bear market drawdown magnitudes, not NYDIG's baseline prediction.
Galaxy Research: Baseline Bottom is $40,000 — $46,000
Galaxy Research gave a relatively clear and low baseline prediction among current institutions. Its June report believes that Bitcoin may form a cycle bottom in the $40,000 — $46,000 region between now and the fourth quarter of 2026.
Galaxy established a Bitcoin bottom monitoring framework containing 13 indicators, covering factors such as price drawdown, holder loss, Realized Price, miner stress, long-term holder behavior, and market time cycles. As of the report release, only 4 indicators were fully triggered, indicating that although Bitcoin has entered the latter half of the bear market, the market may not have fully completed clearance in terms of drawdown magnitude and duration.
Therefore, Galaxy lists $40,000 — $46,000 as the baseline bottom range, and also reminds that if the macro environment or digital asset treasury companies deteriorate further, the market may experience deeper tail risks.
Bitfinex: $53,400 is Structural Support, Insufficient Demand May Probe $40,000
Bitfinex Alpha, in a report on June 29, viewed the Realized Price of about $53,400 as an important structural support for Bitcoin.
The report believes that if ETF outflows slow down and spot buying recovers, Bitcoin may complete bottoming in this region; if demand remains weak, the market may further probe near $40,000 in the fourth quarter.
On July 1, Bitcoin fell to about $57,800 and then rebounded quickly. Bitfinex pointed out in a subsequent report that this movement may belong to a "false breakdown," but it was still insufficient to confirm that the final bottom had formed at that time.
22V Research: After Breaking Below $60,000, Technical Target May Point to $40,000
22V Research Technical Strategist John Roque stated that Bitcoin is testing $60,000, the first downside target. If the price effectively breaks below this position, it may further probe $40,000.
Therefore, $40,000 belongs to a conditional target after breaking key technical levels, not an unconditional prediction made by 22V Research on the bottom of this cycle.
Other Institutions: $31,000 — $40,000 Mainly Belongs to Deep Bear Market Scenarios
Zacks Investment Research Chief Equity Strategist John Blank stated in February that if this crypto winter lasts 12–18 months, Bitcoin may fall to about $40,000 in the next 6–8 months. He mainly made judgments based on technical patterns, declining liquidity, and historical bear market cycles.
Stifel previously gave a potential target of about $38,000; Ned Davis Research believes that if the market enters a complete "crypto winter," Bitcoin may fall to about $31,000. These figures belong more to long-term bear market or deep stress scenarios, not the current unified baseline judgment of various institutions.
MicroStrategy and Metaplanet: No Clear Bottom Predicted, but Long-Term Treasury Strategy Continues
MicroStrategy and Metaplanet did not give a clear Bitcoin bottom price, but the treasury behaviors of both are important variables for institutions judging market demand.
Michael Saylor stated that recent Bitcoin ETF outflows of about $4 billion reflect capital rotation towards the AI sector, rather than damage to Bitcoin itself; in his view, volatility can still create opportunities.
However, MicroStrategy has begun to manage its balance sheet more flexibly. The company sold 3,588 BTC between June 29 and July 5, cashing out about $216 million, mainly used to pay preferred stock distributions. In the latest week, the company did not continue to buy or sell BTC, but raised about $467 million by selling common stock, increasing USD reserves to about $3 billion. As of disclosure, MicroStrategy holds 843,775 BTC.
Metaplanet continues to maintain the long-term direction of expanding BTC reserves, and sets holding 100,000 BTC by the end of 2026 and 210,000 BTC by the end of 2027 as targets. The positions of the two companies are more suitable to be classified as long-term treasury allocation, rather than short-term bottom predictions.
KOL Predictions: From $57,000 to Below $30,000
Besides institutions, on-chain analysts, traders, and industry figures have also given different judgments on the bottom of this cycle.
Michael Terpin stated in April that Bitcoin has not yet touched the final bottom, and expects the price may fall to about $57,000 around October. The $57,800 low that appeared on July 1 is already close to his prediction, but whether it belongs to the final bottom remains to be confirmed.
Bitget CEO Gracy Chen stated in June that $59,000 is the first support needing attention; if broken, the next important region is located at $48,000 — $52,000. Biteye summarized its bottom judgment as about $50,000 based on this.
On-chain analyst Willy Woo in March based on traditional on-chain models such as CVDD, placed the potential bottom range at $46,000 — $54,000. At that time, the CVDD floor was about $45,500, and would gradually rise over time. He also reminded that these models have only experienced 4 complete bear markets, if the macro environment deteriorates significantly, the actual price may also fall deeper.
F2Pool founder Jiang Zhuoer expects that Bitcoin may fall to $42,000 — $44,000 in the fourth quarter of 2026. He referenced the ratio of MicroStrategy's market cap to Bitcoin Net Asset Value, and combined the four-year cycle and the characteristic of Bitcoin volatility declining round by round to make judgments.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes that Bitcoin may fall to about $40,000 in the next 6 months. He has hedged downside via option structures, but still states he is long-term net long Bitcoin. Therefore, $40,000 belongs to his mid-term risk judgment, not a long-term bearish target.
KOL WolfyXBT stated that he is still waiting for Bitcoin at $35,000, representing some traders holding more pessimistic judgments on the drawdown of this cycle.
According to Biteye compilation, crypto investor Tony Ling expects that Bitcoin may enter the $30,000 — $40,000 region in the fourth quarter of 2026, and believes the market may subsequently be affected by a long-term Nasdaq bear market and AI bubble burst. Since his complete original post has not been found currently, this view should retain the source limitation of "According to Biteye compilation".
Technical analyst Tony Severino maintains a long-term target of about $34,500, corresponding to Bitcoin drawing down about 72% from the all-time high. He expects the cycle low may appear around October.
Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone gave the most pessimistic judgment. He believes that if Bitcoin cannot reclaim $75,000, the price may still fall to $10,000 in extreme cases. It needs to be emphasized that this is McGlone's personal analysis view, not Bloomberg's formal institutional prediction, nor does it belong to the current mainstream market expectation.
Parties Have Not Formed a Unified Consensus of $44,000 — $46,000
Combining views from all parties, currently one cannot yet draw the conclusion that "institutions generally believe the bottom of this cycle is located at $44,000 — $46,000".
Standard Chartered Bank believes $59,000 may have already constituted the cycle bottom; key regions for CryptoQuant, NYDIG, Citi, and 10x Research are mainly concentrated at $50,000 — $55,000; Galaxy Research, Bitfinex, and Arthur Hayes place the deeper risk range at $40,000 — $46,000. Predictions below $30,000 — $40,000 are mostly based on assumptions of deep bear market, macro recession, or continued deterioration of technical structure.
The core of prediction divergence is not just the different models used by parties, but also their different assumptions about the future macro environment. Whether spot ETFs can resume inflows, whether digital asset treasury companies such as MicroStrategy continue to sell BTC, Federal Reserve policy and USD trends, and whether investor funds continue to transfer to AI assets, may all affect the final bottom.
Therefore, $40,000 — $46,000 can be viewed as the currently more concerned second-layer support and baseline bottom range for some institutions, but cannot be described as a unified consensus already formed by the market.
Join TechFlow official community to stay tuned
Telegram:https://t.me/TechFlowDaily
X (Twitter):https://x.com/TechFlowPost
X (Twitter) EN:https://x.com/BlockFlow_News
吴说区块链
