BTC Needs 92% Surge to Rescue Last Year's $120,000 Buyers, First Escape Exit at $72,000
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BTC Needs 92% Surge to Rescue Last Year's $120,000 Buyers, First Escape Exit at $72,000
The short-term holder cost basis stands at $72,200, and the realized market average is at $76,600; these two levels will be the first pressure test on the path to rebound.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Liam "Akiba" Wright, CryptoSlate
Compiled by: TechFlow
TechFlow Editor's Note: With BTC currently priced at approximately $64,000, buyers who entered at $120,000 last July are losing nearly 48%, requiring a 92.2% rebound to break even. Glassnode on-chain data shows the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis is at $72,200, and the Realized Market Mean is at $76,600—these two points will be the first stress tests on the road to recovery, with some holders potentially choosing to sell as losses narrow.
Buyers at $120,000 Last Year Are Deep Underwater
With BTC currently priced at approximately $64,000, investors who entered when BTC first broke through $120,000 last July see their $1,000 investment now worth only about $520—a loss of 47.98%, requiring a 92.2% rebound to break even (excluding fees).
In July 2025, BTC stood above $120,000 for the first time, setting an all-time high of $123,165; on October 6 of the same year, it climbed further to a higher record of $126,198. However, currently, the price is far below either milestone.
First Stress Test on the Road to Breaking Even
According to Glassnode's Week 27 research report, the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis (comprehensive break-even point for recent buyers) is located at approximately $72,200; the Realized Market Mean (cost basis benchmark for broader active investors) is around $76,600. BTC has been trading below these two indicators for about 5 months.
At points approaching the first two cost bases, losses for buyers who entered at highs will narrow, while other holders will gain earlier exit opportunities. Some may continue holding after returning to profit, while others may choose to reduce positions after long-term losses—the intensity of demand at these points determines whether potential supply can be absorbed.
Overview of Key Points:
- $72,200 (requires 12.7% rise): Short-Term Holder Cost Basis, demand test when recent buyers return to break-even
- $76,600 (requires 19.6% rise): Realized Market Mean, demand test when broader active market returns to break-even
- $100,000 (requires 56.1% rise): Psychological threshold, testing whether recovery far exceeds the first cost basis checkpoint
- $123,000 (requires 92.2% rise): Entry price in July 2025, whether buyers at last year's highs can break even
Bottom Still Unconfirmed
Glassnode's update on July 13 pointed out that the process of BTC trending towards $64,000 lacks broad consensus, with both spot participation and on-chain activity being weak. On July 15, Glassnode stated that capitulation by long-term holders is cooling, buyers have absorbed the June lows, but the bottom remains "a work in progress."
Both updates point to gradual improvement—but breaking through the first two cost bases still requires stronger demand. At the two key points of $72,200 and $76,600, the core question is: how much potential selling pressure emerges, and whether buyers can digest it.
Glassnode simultaneously maintains downside risk exposure—the report on July 8 pointed out that the Realized Price at the bear market lower bound of approximately $53,000 could still be touched. Glassnode views $53,000 as residual risk and continues to characterize the bottom as unconfirmed.
BTC must first reclaim the two cost bases of $72,200 and $76,600 before $100,000 and $123,000 become meaningful. A stronger recovery first depends on whether demand can absorb the risk release near $72,200, and then $76,600. Before the two checkpoints are confirmed reclaimed by broader participation, buyers at last year's highs face holders who can exit earlier.
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