After Shorting for Nine Months, Fully Turns Long: Well-Known Trader Builds Bitcoin Position Near $64,000, Crypto Market Long-Short Divergence Intensifies
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After Shorting for Nine Months, Fully Turns Long: Well-Known Trader Builds Bitcoin Position Near $64,000, Crypto Market Long-Short Divergence Intensifies
Buying the Bottom on BTC, Is the Counterattack Starting Now?
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Claude, TechFlow
TechFlow Editor's Note: Bitcoin fell from last October's high of $126,000 to the $60,000 range, a drop of over 50%. Well-known trader Doctor Profit, who accurately shorted this decline, announced closing all short positions, entering long at $64,000, stating structural variables have rewritten the four-year cycle script. On-chain analyst gumsays pointed out weekly bullish divergence has lasted 147 days, close to the 161 days before bottoming in 2022. But cycle researcher Jake Pahor reviewed common characteristics of bear market bottoms since 2014, finding this cycle scored zero on all three conditions: time span, days of extreme panic, and falling below realized price. The market is tearing between "positioning early" and "waiting for confirmation signals".
Bitcoin fell from last October's historical high of about $126,000 to the $60,000 range, with a maximum drawdown exceeding 54%. This bear market has lasted nine months, and the focus of debate is shifting from "how much further will it fall" to "has the bottom arrived".
On July 19, well-known crypto trader Doctor Profit, who accurately shorted this decline, published a long post on the X platform, announcing the closure of all short positions and starting to buy Bitcoin spot at $64,000. This post received over 2.13 million views and quickly became a focal topic in the crypto community. On the same day, cycle researcher Jake Pahor gave a completely opposite judgment in his Substack column CryptoSuperHub: he 回溯 ed 5,279 days of data since 2012 and found that every bear market bottom since 2014 met three specific conditions, while this cycle has met none.
Doctor Profit Closes All Shorts, Claims Four-Year Cycle Bottom Will Arrive Early
Doctor Profit called this a "Century Report" in the post. He disclosed that all short positions established since September 2025 have been closed: Bitcoin shorts in the $115,000 to $125,000 range, shorts in the $79,000 to $82,000 range, and over 100 altcoin short positions, all locking in profits.
He entered to buy Bitcoin spot at $64,000, with a strategy of structured positioning: as long as Bitcoin is in the $54,000 to $64,000 range, invest 5% of allocated funds daily to buy spot. Buy at $58,000, continue buying at $56,000, and increase intensity if it falls below $54,000.
The core logic for turning bullish lies not in technicals, but in fundamentals. Doctor Profit believes the market mainstream is still waiting for the "four-year cycle bottom" in September or October, but this consensus itself is a danger signal. "The market does not reward those who memorize calendars. When everyone is waiting for the same date, the bottom often arrives early."
He listed several variables changing the Bitcoin market structure: the CLARITY Act may pass the Senate before August 10; BlackRock, Vanguard, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and the New York Stock Exchange have joined DTCC's security tokenization pilot, with Microsoft stock, SPY, QQQ, and US Treasury bonds being tested as tokenized securities, with official launch scheduled for October; Citadel just invested $400 million in Crypto.com, valuing it at $20 billion.
His judgment is: trillion-dollar institutional capital is waiting off-market to enter, while the tokenization revolution and regulatory legislation are advancing simultaneously. Retail investors are shouting on the X platform to wait for $40,000 to $50,000 to build positions, but the largest capital is already acting. "I will not stand behind the herd, begging the market for chips at the same price as everyone else. I want to run ahead."
Doctor Profit simultaneously keeps all S&P 500 short positions unchanged. He believes the crypto market bear market began in October 2025, starting several months earlier than the stock market, and has already undergone repricing. If a stock market crash triggers capital flow from high-valuation assets to the undervalued crypto market, it would instead constitute a catalyst.
gumsays: Weekly Bullish Divergence Has Lasted 147 Days, Close to Previous Bottoming Level
On-chain analyst gumsays posted on the same day, providing supporting arguments from a technical perspective.
His observation is: the trend on the Bitcoin weekly chart is highly similar to the 2022 cycle bottom. In the 2022 cycle, weekly bullish divergence lasted 161 days, after which Bitcoin made a new low and confirmed the cycle bottom; in the 2026 cycle, this divergence has lasted 147 days, only about two weeks short of the 2022 duration.
gumsays' conclusion is moderate but clear: "When you already have a good price, trying to wait for the absolute bottom makes no sense. If you buy at $60,000 to $64,000, and then add positions at $45,000, your average price will still be excellent in the next bull market." But he also added a risk warning: "You have no guarantee it will fall to $45,000."
Three Bottoming Conditions, None Met in This Cycle
Jake Pahor provided the most systematic counter-argument of the week in the July 19 CryptoSuperHub weekly report.
He 回溯 ed CSH Risk Score data since February 2012, totaling 5,279 days, and sorted out three common characteristics of every bear market bottom since 2014:
First, time span. Bear cycles since 2014 experienced about 12 months from top to bottom. The top of this cycle was in October 2025, corresponding to a window in the fourth quarter of this year for 12 months. Currently, only 9 months have passed.
Second, duration of extreme panic. The CSH Risk Score falls into the below 20 range before every bear market bottom and stays in that range for a considerable time. The 2014 to 2015 bear market lasted 275 days below 20, 52 days in 2018, and 123 days in 2022. This cycle has not had a single day below 20 so far, with the lowest point being 21.5 on July 1.
Third, price falls below Realized Price. Realized Price is the weighted average price of all Bitcoins at their last on-chain transfer, understandable as the entire market's collective cost line, currently about $53,000. In every previous bear market bottom, price pierced this level. The June low of $57,000 was close but did not touch it.
Three conditions, zero completed. This is the reason Jake Pahor refuses to join the "bottom has arrived" camp.
But he is not purely bearish.
He acknowledged the rationality of the bull camp in the article: the drawdown magnitude this time is shallower than the same stage in previous years, ETFs as a buying force not present in 2018 and 2022 may provide higher bottom support for this cycle, and over half of Bitcoins were in a loss state at the June low (this condition historically overlaps highly with bottom areas).
Jake Pahor's operation method reflects his attitude: weekly DCA continues as usual (score 20 to 30 range), but larger buy orders are hung for when the score falls below 20, not triggered yet. "If the bottom has arrived, my DCA in the 20s score range will perform very well. If the bottom hasn't arrived, my larger buy orders are waiting below 20, funds ready. The plan covers two outcomes, prediction can only cover one."
He also provided a set of historical backtest data: buying Bitcoin in the CSH score 20 to 30 range (current position), the median return after 12 months is +132%, with only 6% of trading days recording losses; buying above score 60, the median return is negative.
Two Key Time Windows and One Data Anchor
From the views of multiple traders and analysts, the core of the current two-party divergence can be summarized into one question: Are the two structural variables of ETF buyers and regulatory legislation sufficient to detach this cycle from the historical template?
Doctor Profit believes the answer is yes, betting on the bottom arriving early, going all-in long. Jake Pahor believes the evidence is insufficient to overturn historical laws, choosing systematic positioning but retaining larger positions to wait for more extreme signals.
As of July 19, Bitcoin is quoted at about $64,800, the 200-week moving average is near $63,000, and the price is sitting exactly above this long-term support line. The Fear and Greed Index is at 25 (Extreme Fear).
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