Podcast Notes | Conversation with Former NYSE Market Maker: Watch These 7 Signals to Confirm BTC Bottom, Don't Just Focus on Price
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Podcast Notes | Conversation with Former NYSE Market Maker: Watch These 7 Signals to Confirm BTC Bottom, Don't Just Focus on Price
If you are waiting for BTC at 40,000 to 50,000, adjusted for M2 money supply, you have already reached it.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsOrganized & Compiled: TechFlow
Guest: Eric Krown, former New York Stock Exchange ARCA (NYSE Arca) options market maker, now full-time crypto trader, founder of YouTube channel Krown's Crypto Cave
Host: Alessandro, Crypto Banter "Risk Takers" program
Podcast Source: Crypto Banter
Original Title: The Exact Bitcoin Levels That Decide the Next Move | Krown
Air Date: July 19, 2026
Disclosure: Krown publicly stated he bought spot BTC slightly above $60,000, while operating paid trading courses and exchange affiliate links (ByBit, BloFin, etc.). This episode is pure technical analysis and does not involve promotion of specific project tokens.
Key Takeaways
Eric Krown is a former NYSE ARCA options market maker with over 15 years of trading experience, starting from learning equity options at the Pacific Stock Exchange as a teenager, later serving as an Authorized Market Maker Trader (MMAT) at NYSE ARCA, and transitioning to full-time crypto trading several years ago. This is his fourth appearance on Alessandro's "Risk Takers" program, where the monthly series of discussions has been tracking a core question in real-time: where exactly is the macro bottom for Bitcoin.
The biggest information increment in this episode is Krown piecing together all the monthly signals currently converging synchronously into a complete checklist. 55 EMA reclaim level $63,735, Stochastic Oscillator cross trigger level $64,371, bi-weekly MACD histogram 168-day cycle pointing to early August, and after the LTI tool issued a strong buy signal in January, the price has retraced 22.64% (highly consistent with the 20-22% of previous cycles). He clearly stated that if BTC closes above $63,735 on the monthly chart, he has 85% confidence that the macro bottom is being constructed. On the other hand, the Fear & Greed Index has stayed below 20 for two to three consecutive months, market sentiment is extremely pessimistic, yet the price has already executed a major reversal; this divergence has appeared at every macro low in history.
Highlights Summary
On the Psychological Trap of "Waiting for 50k"
"Everyone is shouting 40k to 50k, but if you divide BTC by the M2 money supply, it has actually retested the flash crash low from August 2024, $49,270. The number you want, adjusted for inflation, has already been given to you."
On the Monthly 55 EMA
"After BTC fell below the 55 EMA in 2022, it took about half a year to reclaim it; once reclaimed, the bull market officially began. In 2018, it only lost two monthly candles before reclaiming. Now it just needs to close above $63,735 in July, and this thing is reclaimed."
On the 168-Day Cycle
"From the MACD histogram low to the actual price low in 2018, 168 days. 2022, 168 days. This cycle's trend line has already been triggered; pushing forward 168 days lands exactly in early August, completely overlapping with the time window for the monthly close and Stochastic Oscillator cross."
On Market Sentiment
"Fear & Greed Index is 28, having been below 20 for two to three consecutive months. The price has already reversed from the low, but sentiment is still in the basement. Looking back at 2015, 2019, 2022, every macro low had this recipe."
On Traditional Market Rotation
"The semiconductor index has risen 300% from April 2025 to now; I called the top in early July. Profits are flowing into healthcare biotechnology (IBB) and the industrial sector. But the SPY chart is not bearish; I don't see any macro top signals, at least not before Q4."
On Gold and Copper
"Gold just hit the top in January on a 10-year cycle; high probability of sideways movement or decline in the coming years. Copper is different; it just broke out of a 20-year consolidation range starting from 2006, target price around $8. Copper is a direct proxy for AI data center construction."
Main Text
Chapter 1: "Deflating" BTC with M2 Money Supply
Alessandro: Last month you said BTC hovering around 60k until summer would start to look very good, do you still think so?
Krown: Yes, and I now have about 85% confidence that the macro low is being confirmed at this month's close. Let's start with a perspective I feel is seriously overlooked. Many people are waiting for BTC at 40k to 50k; various influencers and retail investors are shouting this range. But if you divide BTC by the M2 money supply, the situation is completely different. This chart uses money supply as the denominator, equivalent to standardizing the inflation factor.
2022 was the same situation. Everyone was shouting 10k, 8k, but if you standardize using M2, BTC actually fell to the equivalent of the $10,000 level in November of that year. I said on my channel at the time, if you were waiting for 10k to 11k, adjusted for money supply, it had already arrived.
The situation now is exactly the same. The sub-50k you want, adjusted for M2, BTC has already retested the flash crash low of August 2024 at $49,270. The number you want has already been given to you, you just didn't use the correct ruler to measure it. Since 2020, money supply has increased by 40% to 50%, yet we treat the US dollar as a constant to measure asset prices, which is itself a cognitive bias.
Alessandro: I have also used the BTC/M2 chart before to illustrate that BTC is the only asset that continues to make higher highs and higher lows against money supply. S&P and Gold are actually trending lower against M2.
Krown: That's right, the S&P only recently broke through the 1999 high, corresponding to a break against M2 as well. Everything is related to money supply; nothing operates in a vacuum.
Chapter 2: Monthly 55 EMA, $63,735 is the First Confirmation Signal
Alessandro: Let's get into specific price levels. What is the situation with the monthly 55 EMA you mentioned before?
Krown: Let's start with the simplest. The 55 EMA (Exponential Moving Average) on the monthly chart has historically been the key moving average for BTC to confirm macro lows. In 2022, after BTC fell below it, it spent about half a year underneath; once reclaimed, it was a major signal, and the bull market started from there. In 2018, it only lost two monthly closes before reclaiming, then surged. Going further back to 2015 and 2014, although historical data is limited, the 55 EMA similarly acted as a basing point.
The situation now: If BTC closes above $63,735 this month, it completes the reclaim of the 55 EMA. We are currently near this price level. There are 11 to 12 trading days remaining, and so far everything is normal. This signal is very specific and very easy to track. Even if you are the staunchest bear, you have to admit this is at least a major low, and BTC will most likely rebound back above 70k.
For short-term confirmation I still need to see BTC close above 65,500. But on the monthly level,63,735 is the first hard indicator.
Chapter 3: Triple Convergence of Monthly MACD, RSI, and Stochastic Oscillator
Alessandro: What about the monthly MACD?
Krown: The monthly MACD is showing a momentum weakening signal; July is the first awesome momentum signal, the last one appeared in April. Historically, every time monthly MACD momentum starts to weaken, the low has either already appeared, or is so close you might as well enter. 2015 was like this, the low was already there. 2019 reversal was almost on that bar. In 2022, although there was the extreme event of the FTX collapse later, if you bought when the MACD signal appeared, it was only one month earlier than the final low, and long-term you would be very satisfied.
Regarding RSI, the monthly RSI is now basically at the same level as the 2022 low, maybe a little lower, and lower than all previous macro lows in BTC history. Multiple momentum oscillators are corroborating the same story at the same position.
Looking at the monthly Stochastic Oscillator. It has already touched the oversold zone below 20, this is a low signal. The next confirmation is waiting for it to cross upward. Every time this cross occurs, the low is already in place. I have tracked data starting from 2012, without a single exception.
Here is a key number: I back-calculated, if BTC closes on the monthly chart at 64,371 or above, it will force the Stochastic Oscillator to cross upward. So you see two trigger levels within a very narrow range:63,735 reclaims 55 EMA, $64,371 triggers Stochastic Oscillator cross. If both hit simultaneously, plus MACD momentum signal and RSI low, even the biggest bear has to start considering whether this is the macro bottom.
Chapter 4: 168-Day Cycle, Pointing to Early August
Alessandro: What about the bi-weekly MACD histogram trend line you mentioned before?
Krown: This is one of the tools I used to publicly call the macro low in advance in 2022. Looking at the MACD histogram on the bi-weekly timeframe, a downward trend line can be drawn starting from 2018; every time the histogram touches this line, a low forms. Note, the low of the MACD histogram does not equal the low of the price, there is a time difference between the two.
But this time difference is very regular. 2018: From MACD histogram low to actual price macro low, 168 days. 2022: Similarly 168 days. Precise to the day.
This cycle, the trend line has already been triggered. Pushing forward 168 days, you land in early August. This completely overlaps with the time window for monthly 55 EMA reclaim and Stochastic Oscillator cross. Everything is converging at the same point in time.
Alessandro: So the signals you see are not isolated, they are synchronously pointing to the same conclusion?
Krown: Yes, that's why I say 85% confidence. Any single indicator can be wrong, but when five or six independent signals trigger simultaneously within the same week, the probability is completely on your side. This is the same logic as World Cup odds. The French team is the biggest favorite, 15% probability rising all the way to 40%, but the probability of all other teams combined is always higher than France. You bet on France to win, the reasons can be very sufficient, but you are most likely wrong.
Alessandro: Trading is the same, you never have 100% certainty.
Krown: Never. But when you have a probability advantage, just stand on the side of high probability. You don't need to be right every time, in a market like BTC, you only need to be right once big.
Chapter 5: LTI Tool and the 22% Rule
Alessandro: What about your LTI (Long-Term Investor) tool? Last time you mentioned it issued a buy signal.
Krown: LTI is a long-term tool that combines volatility, momentum, dates, and other fundamental factors. Every time it issues a strong buy signal, the price is usually about 20% downside space from the final low. Let me quickly go through the history.
December 2014, the first strong buy signal appeared, from signal to the next closing low fell 22.90%. 2018, signal to low 20.61%. June 2022 signal appeared, to macro closing low 20.65%. This cycle, the strong buy signal appeared in January 2026, from signal to current closing low has already fallen 22.64%. Four signals, declines all between 20-23%, astonishingly consistent.
There is a premise for my judgment on the macro low: the weekly trend must officially reverse. Currently all higher timeframes are still in a downtrend, this is a fact. But if the monthly closes above those numbers mentioned earlier, I will move from 80% to 85% confidence. This doesn't mean BTC won't rise to 75k first then fall back to 65k, but the bottom structure is forming.
Chapter 6: Fear & Greed Index 28, Classic Divergence Between Sentiment and Price
Alessandro: How do you view market sentiment?
Krown: The Fear & Greed Index is now 28, previously below 20 for two to three consecutive months. Looking at my YouTube analytics data, the number of followers has also decreased significantly. But the sentiment of those who remain is extremely pessimistic.
Here is a classic divergence: Market sentiment is in the basement, yet the price has already completed a major reversal from the low. This configuration has appeared at every macro low in 2015, 2019, 2022. Everyone thinks they are going against the crowd, actually they are the crowd. The crowd is bearish, and very convinced.
Even if the macro low hasn't arrived yet, I don't think there is much downside space left. The worst case is also a rebound market lasting several months. $60,000 is my key level, where psychological barrier and technical level coincide. As long as BTC is above this, I treat it as a major low or even macro low. Only a weekly or bi-weekly close below $60,000 will break many structures.
Alessandro: So your invalidation is a bi-weekly or 10-day line close below $60,000?
Krown: Yes, technically you need to see a bi-weekly or at least 10-day line close below $60,000 to start breaking these signals. Below that, many things fall apart. But I haven't seen this sign yet.
Chapter 7: Four-Year Cycle? Don't Care, August is October's Neighbor
Alessandro: What about the four-year cycle? Do you think this low will arrive earlier than October?
Krown: To be honest, I no longer care about the four-year cycle narrative. Everyone reads on YouTube "BTC bottoms one year after topping, so the low must be in October". But how do you define the top? If using the BTC vs M2 chart, the timing of the high appears differently. I see the low signal will appear, I don't care what day is written in the history textbook.
Alessandro: But it's only July now, if the bottom is right now or within a month or two, you have to admit the four-year cycle is right again.
Krown: That's right, July is only three months away from October. Close enough that you can tip your hat and say "Okay, it's right again". I don't need to be precise to October 16th. In this market you don't need to be perfect to make a lot of money. But if BTC makes a new low in October, I will be very suspicious whether that is the real bottom, because that means the technicals have suffered deeper damage.
Chapter 8: Semiconductors Topping, Capital Rotating into Healthcare and Copper
Alessandro: You mentioned traditional markets are showing rotation, can you elaborate?
Krown: Semiconductors are the biggest topic. NVIDIA, Intel, Micron, these, I publicly called the top in early July. The semiconductor index has risen over 300% from April 2025 to now, just holding the index tripled the money. People are taking profits, completely understandable.
But I am not bearish on traditional markets. Rotation does not equal bear market. Capital coming out of semiconductors is entering healthcare biotechnology. IBB (iShares Biotechnology ETF) just completed a daily level breakout, I think it will continue to rise until the end of the year. Short-term there may be buying opportunities on pullbacks to near 180. The industrial sector is also strengthening.
The SPY chart is not bearish. Short-term may pullback to near 7200, but overall still bullish to Q4. I don't think there are any macro top signals now, at least not before October, November. QQQ is weak short-term, early August may have another flash crash (this situation happens in early August every past few years), but afterwards will continue to rise.
Alessandro: The memory ETF sector also gave back half the gains, but the index wasn't much affected. Apple is the largest company again now, this is too crazy.
Krown: Apple's chart is very good, at least 3 to 6 months of upside space remaining. This is how the market works: one sector tops, capital flows to the next sector, the index continues to rise. This has been the pattern since 2008. Everyone likes to shout macro top, probably because they watched "The Big Short" and took those few people as idols. But honestly, in these markets going long is much easier than going short.
Alessandro: Finally talk about gold and copper?
Krown: Gold and silver I remain extremely bearish on. Gold hit the top in January on a 10-year cycle, high probability of sideways to decline in the coming years, there are rebounds in between to short. If you are holding long in this rebound, that is a sell gift God gave you.
Copper is a completely different chart. Just broke out of a 20-year consolidation range starting from 2006, target price around $8. Copper is a direct proxy for AI data center construction, these data centers need a lot of copper. As long as copper price is above $560, objectively bullish. I don't trade copper often, but from a pure technical perspective, the breakout is real, there is still upside space.
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