New Order of the Crypto Market Under Liquidity Repricing | HTX Research Releases Quarterly Outlook Report, Breaking Down Q3 Strategy Framework
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New Order of the Crypto Market Under Liquidity Repricing | HTX Research Releases Quarterly Outlook Report, Breaking Down Q3 Strategy Framework
The report indicates that market direction will depend on two conditions yet to be confirmed: whether global liquidity can stop deteriorating, and whether regulatory certainty can unlock institutional risk budgets.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insights
Recently, HTX Research, the exclusive research department under HTX, released the Q3 2026 Outlook Report titled "Liquidity Defines the Crypto Market: A New Crypto Order Under Global Liquidity Repricing". In the report, HTX Research starts from the market changes that occurred in the second quarter and provides a complete judgment on the next phase focusing on the two main threads of liquidity and regulation.
Read the full report:
The launch of the quarterly outlook stems from HTX's observation of users' real needs: in a crypto market overloaded with information and frequent narrative shifts, what users need more is an analytical context that can penetrate noise and reveal the mid-term main thread. HTX Research takes a quarterly cycle, incorporating macro liquidity, policy regulation, and on-chain fundamentals into a unified framework, helping users understand the deep drivers of the market beyond price fluctuations, thereby clarifying trends more clearly and building their own strategy frameworks.
Looking back at the just-concluded second quarter, HTX Research believes that the pullback in crypto asset prices was essentially a macro-driven global liquidity repricing, and the long-term logic and fundamentals of the crypto industry have not reversed thereby. The superposition of four forces—Fed policy turning hawkish, a stronger USD, reversal of spot ETF fund flows, and cooling corporate treasury buying—collectively raised capital costs and compressed market risk budgets. This adjustment is significantly different from the previous bear market: the latter stemmed from credit collapse and damaged institutional trust within the industry, while the pressure in this round is concentrated at the macro level, with rising capital costs and the disappearance of marginal buying being the main causes. This judgment is clearly confirmed by data: Bitcoin fell to about $59,000 in June after touching a phase high of about $82,000 in mid-May, compressing peak-to-trough valuation by about 24%; spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a combined net outflow of nearly $4.9 billion in May and June, turning the previous core marginal buying into selling pressure.
Based on this background, HTX Research proposes three judgments on various assets. First, what determines the mid-term trend of Bitcoin is still global USD liquidity, and geopolitical conflicts such as the situation in Iran only change short-term risk appetite. In the second quarter, gold once performed stronger than Bitcoin, confirming that its pricing logic has become closer to global liquidity assets. Second, the market no longer pays premiums for pure narratives; the divergence of ETH, DeFi, and altcoins indicates that ecosystem activity, TVL, and user growth must be converted into fees, revenue, burns, or clear token value capture to support valuations. Finally, the price pullback has not interrupted the expansion of infrastructure; the scale of tokenized RWA (excluding stablecoins) rose from about $29.49 billion to $32.28 billion in the second quarter, U.S. Treasury tokenization continues to contribute the main incremental growth, and stablecoin settlement, on-chain securities, and institutional compliance channels are also advancing simultaneously.
Regarding the third quarter, the report points out that market direction will depend on two conditions yet to be confirmed: whether global liquidity can stop deteriorating, and whether regulatory certainty can release institutional risk budgets.
Accordingly, HTX Research proposes three observation variables that need continuous tracking: first, whether the Federal Reserve continues its hawkish reaction function; second, the pace of U.S. Treasury debt issuance and the draining effect of TGA reconstruction on liquidity (after the RRP buffer is basically exhausted, TGA has replaced traditional QT as a more critical liquidity variable); third, the legislative progress of the CLARITY Act. The bill has passed markup in the Senate Banking Committee by 15 to 9 and been included in the legislative agenda; whether it can subsequently cross the 60-vote threshold constitutes the largest policy variable for the third quarter.
On this basis, the report constructs three scenarios and their probabilities: under the baseline scenario (60%), liquidity improves limitedly, regulation continues to advance but is not fully realized, and the market is more likely to show structural repair; the optimistic scenario (25%) corresponds to falling inflation, a weaker USD, and regulatory progress exceeding expectations; the pessimistic scenario (15%) comes from renewed energy price shocks and further liquidity contraction.
At the same time, the report sorts out the sensitivity of various assets to the above two main threads. Bitcoin is regarded as a proxy variable for global liquidity, often reflecting marginal changes in liquidity first; RWA, supported by both the high-interest rate environment and institutional compliance needs, is seen as a through-cycle structural main thread; high-quality DeFi's revaluation depends more on real revenue, risk governance, and value capture capabilities rather than TVL scale; ETH's recovery awaits further confirmation of fees, burns, and ETF fund flows. HTX Research judges that the market in the third quarter will not reward all risks; liquidity, cash flow, and compliance paths will become key to distinguishing asset performance.
Through this report, HTX Research aims to help global HTX users clearly sort out key variables and verification signals for the third quarter, providing referable analytical basis for them to judge market direction in a complex macro environment. In the future, HTX Research will continue to release "Quarterly Outlook" and other types of high-quality investment research content, synchronously updating the judgment framework with the evolution of the macro and policy environment, providing stable support for users to track market trends and improve strategy ideas in the long term.
Note: This article does not constitute investment advice.
About HTX Research
HTX Research is the exclusive research department under HTX, responsible for in-depth analysis of a wide range of fields such as cryptocurrency, blockchain technology, and emerging market trends, writing comprehensive reports, and providing professional assessments. HTX Research is committed to providing data-based insights and strategic foresight, playing a key role in shaping industry views and supporting informed decisions in the digital asset field. With rigorous research methods and cutting-edge data analysis, HTX Research always stands at the forefront of innovation, leads industry thought development, and promotes in-depth understanding of changing market dynamics. Visit Us.
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