HTX Research Latest Report Interpretation: When AI Becomes a "Liquidity Black Hole", How the Crypto Market Regains Pricing Power
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HTX Research Latest Report Interpretation: When AI Becomes a "Liquidity Black Hole", How the Crypto Market Regains Pricing Power
Rather than judging whether AI will crash, this research report focuses more on how global capital migrates between AI, US stocks, bonds, energy, and crypto.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insights
Recently, HTX Research, the research department under HTX, released the latest research report "AI Bubble, Liquidity Black Hole, and Crypto Market Repricing: Mid-2026 Macro and Risk Asset Correlation Study", analyzing how the AI investment supercycle reshapes the distribution pattern of global liquidity, and thereby changes the correlation structure between Bitcoin and risk assets. Rather than judging whether AI will crash, the report focuses more on how global capital migrates between AI, U.S. stocks, bonds, energy, and crypto.
Coexistence of Real Technological Revolution and Financial Bubbles
HTX Research points out that this AI cycle is not exactly the same as the 2000 internet bubble. Large models have indeed improved efficiency in scenarios such as code, content, customer service, and data analysis, and cloud providers, model companies, and hardware supply chains also have real revenue. But real technological revolution does not equal asset prices being reasonable forever. Historically, the most dangerous bubbles are often built after real technology is overly financialized, overly capitalized, and overly optimistically priced.
The core risk of the AI market has shifted from "whether the technology is real" to "whether capital returns are sufficient to support current investments". After 2024, global AI data center capital expenditure accelerated upwards. Hyperscale cloud providers, model companies, data center developers, private credit funds, and the bond market participated together, rapidly pushing up the scale of AI infrastructure financing. AI is transforming from a growth narrative in the stock market into a balance sheet engineering project jointly borne by the bond market, private credit market, and energy market.
"Liquidity Black Hole": Why Crypto Failed to Fully Benefit from This Round of Easing
According to traditional logic, M2 expansion, fiscal deficits, monetary easing expectations, and rising risk appetite usually drive Bitcoin and crypto assets stronger. However, from late 2024 to mid-2026, a significant portion of new USD liquidity was absorbed by the AI industry chain: stock investors bought AI equity assets, bond investors purchased AI-related credit assets, private funds participated in data center financing, and banks and non-bank institutions lent to tech giants and data center projects.
AI CapEx thus became the "liquidity black hole" of global risk capital, and this change altered Bitcoin's pricing logic of the past decade. Bitcoin was originally mainly related to USD liquidity, real interest rates, risk appetite, and regulatory cycles, but in 2026 it must face a new variable: whether AI continues to suck away global marginal risk capital. This also explains why, in an environment where macro liquidity is not exactly tight, the dominance of incremental funds in the crypto market continues to be suppressed.
Research Framework for Second Half of 2026: Multidimensional Monitoring System Composed of Six Categories of Indicators
The methodological value of the report is concentrated in the research framework for the second half of 2026. Facing changes in the correlation between AI bubbles and the crypto market, a single indicator cannot judge market trends. HTX Research provides a multidimensional monitoring system that observes macro, AI, credit, stocks, crypto, and political risks together, covering six categories of indicators.
Among them, two categories of indicators are particularly critical. The first is energy and inflation. The basis of AI is electricity; sustained upward energy prices will reprice AI training and inference costs, compressing model companies' gross margins and cloud providers' CapEx returns; at the same time, oil prices directly affect the Federal Reserve's policy space through inflation. For the crypto market, the most favorable environment is usually when "falling inflation + loose liquidity + risk appetite recovery" appear simultaneously, and mid-2026 has obviously not entered this state yet. Brent, WTI, natural gas, grid load in concentrated data center areas, as well as CPI, PCE, and inflation expectations, are all signals that need continuous tracking.
Another category, underestimated yet potentially the most important, is AI credit financing indicators. The bursting of the AI bubble may not happen first in stock prices, but may happen first in the credit market. Tech giant bond issuance scale, credit spreads, data center ABS/CMBS pricing, private credit fundraising, bank lending standards, and project financing failure cases jointly constitute this most worthy warning line of vigilance. Once the credit market shifts from "willing to finance infinitely" to "requiring cash flow proof", the expansion speed of AI CapEx will be suppressed and transmitted to the crypto market through risk appetite.
The remaining four categories of indicators each have their own focus: AI CapEx and order indicators focus on whether wording such as "controlling pace" appears in tech giants' capital expenditure guidance; Mega IPOs and unlock schedule observe whether companies like SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic etc. can be accepted by the public market after listing; Political and regulatory indicators track policy changes on AI data centers and electricity price issues in swing states; Crypto market internal liquidity, through BTC and ETH ETF net inflows, stablecoin supply, on-chain activity, etc., judges whether crypto is passively bearing external risks or beginning to be seen as an alternative allocation after the AI bubble clears.
Three Scenarios and Longer-Term Judgment
Based on the above framework, HTX Research deduced three scenarios for the second half of the year: AI continues to expand, crypto continues to be suppressed; AI moderates correction, crypto differentiates after short-term pressure; and AI bubble bursts rapidly, triggering credit contraction. In the third scenario, the crypto market is difficult to rise independently in the short term, but after policy rescue and monetary re-easing appear, Bitcoin may stabilize first, becoming one of the most elastic assets in the next round of liquidity restoration.
In the longer term, AI is reshaping the flow of global liquidity, and the crypto market is in the process of re-finding pricing power. The truly important intersection point of the two may fall on the combination of "AI × Crypto Financial Infrastructure": stablecoins becoming the payment layer for AI Agents, on-chain markets becoming the trading layer for AI assets, and exchanges becoming the unified entry point for global risk assets. HTX is also exploring this direction through its self-developed AINFT products, aggregating mainstream large model capabilities into the platform ecosystem.
HTX Research believes that at the current stage, identifying changes in capital flow is more critical. AI may continue to rise, but it is no longer a risk-free growth story; the crypto market will still fluctuate, but it is no longer an isolated high-volatility asset. What truly determines the market direction in the second half of the year will be whether AI CapEx can continue to obtain financing, whether energy prices can stabilize, and whether Bitcoin can regain marginal pricing power over global liquidity.
About HTX Research
HTX Research is the exclusive research department under HTX, responsible for in-depth analysis of a wide range of fields such as cryptocurrency, blockchain technology, and emerging market trends, writing comprehensive reports, and providing professional evaluations. HTX Research is committed to providing data-based insights and strategic foresight, playing a key role in shaping industry viewpoints and supporting informed decisions in the digital asset field. With rigorous research methods and cutting-edge data analysis, HTX Research always stands at the forefront of innovation, leading industry thought development, and promoting in-depth understanding of changing market dynamics. Visit Us.
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