Reddit’s Weekly Hot Stocks Discussion: RKLB, LUNR, and ASTS Plunge Collectively—Is the Space Sector Still Worth Considering?
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Reddit’s Weekly Hot Stocks Discussion: RKLB, LUNR, and ASTS Plunge Collectively—Is the Space Sector Still Worth Considering?
SpaceX’s IPO has triggered an emotional spillover effect, with space-related stocks each backed by distinct investment rationales.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: David, TechFlow
On Reddit’s stock-related subreddits, a surge in discussion volume around a particular stock doesn’t necessarily mean it’s a buy—but it does signal that people are paying attention, as such discussions often reflect underlying catalysts.
Our monitoring tool scans daily for shifts in discussion volume and sentiment distribution across multiple major stock-focused subreddits, flagging anomalies for deeper analysis.
Last week’s top discussion signals converged on the space sector:
SPCE (Virgin Galactic) topped the热度 chart with 2,828 posts in 24 hours; RKLB (Rocket Lab) saw discussion volume surge 3.3x; LUNR (Intuitive Machines) and ASTS (AST SpaceMobile) also appeared frequently in high-discussion threads.
These four stocks are often discussed together on Reddit because they represent among the few pure-play space companies accessible to retail investors. With SpaceX still private, these names serve as retail investors’ primary proxies for “space-themed” exposure.
A common question in U.S. equity subreddits is: “Which companies am I missing from my space-themed investments?”—reflecting, to some extent, the spillover sentiment around SpaceX and retail expectations that its eventual public debut will ignite broader interest in the space theme, prompting early positioning.
Yet price action across these names diverged sharply: SPCE surged 22% intraday, while RKLB fell 15%, LUNR dropped 13%, and ASTS declined 7%.
Hence, current discussion around SPCE stems largely from profit-taking momentum attracting new attention, whereas discussion around RKLB/LUNR/ASTS reflects anxiety among existing holders amid losses or drawdowns.
If you’re tracking—or holding—any of these space-related stocks, the following analysis of their recent developments may help inform your decisions.
Most space stocks declined amid overlapping headwinds
Besides $SPCE, at least three negative catalysts hit the space sector simultaneously last week.
Blue Origin rocket explosion.
Blue Origin, founded by Amazon’s Jeff Bezos, is developing the New Glenn heavy-lift launch vehicle—a direct competitor to SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy and Rocket Lab’s upcoming Neutron rocket. On May 29, New Glenn exploded during a static-fire test at Cape Canaveral, prompting immediate grounding by the FAA (U.S. Federal Aviation Administration, which must approve all commercial launches).
This event hit $ASTS hardest:
The company plans to launch 45–60 satellites by year-end—and Blue Origin was one of its primary launch providers. The grounding effectively eliminated one critical launch path.
$RKLB does not rely on New Glenn for launches, but its own Neutron rocket competes directly with New Glenn. The explosion reminded investors just how risky rocket development remains. $LUNR was impacted more by sector-wide sentiment contagion than direct operational linkage.
$SPCE, however, benefited. Virgin Galactic operates in suborbital space tourism—a direct competitor to Blue Origin’s New Shepard vehicle. Following the New Glenn explosion, capital flowed out of Blue Origin-linked names and partially into SPCE. Additionally, SPCE’s relatively small market cap makes its share price especially volatile.
SpaceX IPO pricing potentially as early as June 11.
SpaceX filed its confidential S-1 registration in April, targeting a $1.8 trillion valuation and up to $75 billion in fundraising—the largest IPO in Wall Street history. For years, RKLB, LUNR, and ASTS have drawn investor interest partly because SpaceX remains private, making them the only space-themed access points for retail investors. Now that the “main event” is approaching, some capital is naturally rotating out of substitutes to make room for SpaceX.
Insiders selling shares.
Public filings show RKLB CEO Peter Beck sold approximately 2.51 million shares over the past six months, realizing ~$142 million. The company’s President, COO, and General Counsel also recently sold shares totaling ~$18 million.
Some sales were executed under pre-arranged 10b5-1 trading plans (a SEC-compliant mechanism for executives to sell shares in advance), but timing coincided with near-all-time highs. Over the past year, RKLB rose 412%, ASTS gained 437%, and LUNR climbed 267%—meaning substantial unrealized gains had already accumulated.
Four “space companies”—doing very different things
Retail investors tend to group SPCE, RKLB, LUNR, and ASTS as one sector for trading—but their businesses, revenue stages, and risk profiles differ significantly.
As shown above, RKLB is the only one generating real, accelerating revenue.
Looking at Q1 revenue: RKLB’s revenue grew 63.5% YoY—driven organically by individual contracts—and exceeded analyst expectations. LUNR’s headline revenue figure is similar in magnitude, but ~$800 million stems from its acquisition of Lanteris earlier this year; excluding that, organic growth is far less impressive—and total revenue still missed analyst forecasts by 9%.
ASTS and SPCE appear nearly invisible in this chart—their revenues are negligible relative to the other two.
RKLB: The only company with accelerating fundamentals—but $122 looks expensive
Rocket Lab is the second-largest U.S. rocket company. Its proprietary Electron small-lift rocket has completed over 50 launches. It also builds satellite buses and aerospace components for NASA, the Department of Defense, and commercial clients. Government and commercial revenue each account for roughly half its business, giving it a far more diversified customer base than the other three.
The Neutron medium-lift rocket—currently under development—is RKLB’s biggest variable. Positioned as a direct competitor to SpaceX’s Falcon 9, successful first flight would elevate RKLB from “small-launch service provider” to “the only publicly traded company besides SpaceX capable of launching medium payloads.” Targeted for Q4 2026, Neutron’s debut has already been delayed twice (most recently due to first-stage tank testing failures). Success versus failure implies vastly different valuation outcomes.
Q1 financial figures are detailed in the charts below. Here are three key points not visible in those tables:
First, $2.2 billion in backlog includes an $816 million satellite contract with the Space Development Agency (SDA)—Rocket Lab’s largest single order to date—signaling a strategic shift from launch services toward becoming a “full-stack space supplier.”
Second, RKLB secured five dedicated Neutron launch contracts in Q1—even before the rocket has flown—indicating growing market confidence in Neutron.
Third, CEO Peter Beck sold $142 million worth of shares over the past six months. While compliant under 10b5-1 rules, this scale of insider selling is notable within the aerospace industry.
Valuation-wise, the company trades at a Forward P/S ratio of ~80x. This assumes Neutron’s success, sustained defense contract growth, and continued gross margin expansion. A miss on any one of these assumptions could pressure the valuation significantly.
Overall, the current $122 price appears to have priced in most positive news. A pullback to the $96–$102 range (near its 50-day moving average) would offer a much better risk-reward profile.
Tide Outlook: Bullish bias—but wait for a better entry. Key catalysts: Neutron’s Q4 inaugural flight progress and the August 6 Q2 earnings report.
The other three: Wait for clearer catalysts—and watch for short squeezes
For a more intuitive comparison, here are core financial metrics for all four popular space stocks:
LUNR: $187M revenue tripled—but mostly acquired
Intuitive Machines delivers NASA equipment to the lunar surface and serves as a core contractor under NASA’s CLPS (Commercial Lunar Payload Services) program. Its Q1 revenue tripling looks strong—but the $800M Lanteris acquisition accounts for most of that growth; organic growth falls far short of the headline 199%.
Meanwhile, revenue missed expectations by 9%, and EPS came in four times worse than forecast.
The IM-3 lunar landing mission later this year is a decisive inflection point. IM-1 crashed; IM-2 landed but suffered communication limitations. A successful soft landing at the lunar south pole with IM-3 would secure follow-on NASA contracts; failure would materially weaken the narrative.
Its Forward P/S of 6.4x looks cheapest—but with just 19% gross margins, low P/S doesn’t equal undervaluation. Analysts’ average target price is $40.78; the current price of $38.21 is already close.
Tide Outlook: Neutral-to-bearish—wait for IM-3 results.
ASTS: Biggest story—but Blue Origin grounding derailed the timeline
AST SpaceMobile is building a satellite-based cellular network enabling standard smartphones to connect directly to space—no hardware modifications required. Its potential addressable market includes 4 billion people currently without mobile coverage. Partners include AT&T and Verizon, and it holds FCC licensing.
The concept is sound—but execution timing is now in doubt. Meaningful coverage requires launching 45–60 BlueBird satellites by year-end, yet Blue Origin’s two setbacks have severed one critical launch channel.
Satellite analyst Tim Farrar estimates only 3–5 usable Falcon 9 launches remain available this year. Deutsche Bank downgraded ASTS to Hold, and analysts’ average target price stands at $82.24—22% below current levels.
With $3.5 billion in cash, liquidity isn’t an immediate concern—but its Forward P/S of 177x assumes all satellites launch on schedule.
Tide Outlook: High risk—wait until Blue Origin’s relaunch timeline is confirmed.
SPCE: Highest Reddit discussion volume—beware short squeeze
Virgin Galactic offers suborbital space tourism—tickets cost $750,000. After pausing commercial flights in 2024, it focused on developing the Delta spacecraft, planning glide tests in Q3 and powered tests in Q4. Q1 revenue: $1.5 million (not billion); market cap: $760 million.
This rally was driven by Blue Origin’s competitor mishap + 23.2% short interest triggering a short squeeze + retail FOMO—trading volume spiked to 12x normal levels, triggering intraday volatility halts.
RSI has reached 90 (scale: 0–100; >70 signals overbought; 90 indicates extreme overbought conditions…).
Tide Outlook: Avoid. No revenue foundation. No clear path to profitability. Highest Reddit discussion volume ≠ highest investment merit.
Has the sector fallen into a “golden pit”? Too early to say.
To answer the article’s headline question: We don’t believe it’s a golden pit yet—but if declines continue, RKLB may be approaching a reasonable entry zone.
The Blue Origin explosion was a tangible negative (directly disrupting ASTS’s launch plan); the SpaceX IPO represents a near-term liquidity shock (though post-listing, sector attention may actually increase); and profit-taking at elevated prices is healthy.
The long-term thesis remains intact—but short-term valuations clearly ran ahead of fundamentals.
If forced to rank these four, RKLB is the only one warranting serious tracking: $2.2B in backlog, 43% gross margins, and consecutive earnings beats. Post-SpaceX listing, its status as the “only full-stack space company publicly traded” could even enhance its scarcity premium.
But $122 may still be too rich—$96–$102 looks more reasonable.
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This article is based on publicly available information and independent analysis. It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investing involves risk; please exercise caution before entering the market.
Data Sources: Yahoo Finance · SEC Filings · TradingView · Reddit/ApeWisdom · Stocktwits · CNBC · TipRanks · Simply Wall St
Tide Research · 2026-06-02
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