January 30 Market Recap: Gold and Silver Plunge Overnight; Trump Stirs Up Fed Personnel Moves
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January 30 Market Recap: Gold and Silver Plunge Overnight; Trump Stirs Up Fed Personnel Moves
The market is never short of stories—what it lacks is certainty.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsBy Ma Mengniu, TechFlow
Last night, the gold and silver markets delivered a heart-stopping spectacle: after hitting an all-time intraday high, gold and silver suddenly reversed course—plunging so sharply that investors were caught completely off guard.
Precious Metals: Soaring to the Sky, Then Crashing Down
In the dead of night, spot gold plummeted from its peak of $5,598, briefly dipping below $5,100—a single-day decline exceeding $400. Silver plunged even harder, collapsing from $121 to below $110, a drop of over 6%. Domestic markets followed suit: Shanghai gold and silver futures main contracts tumbled across the board, each falling more than 3%.
This roller-coaster move was triggered by escalating tensions in Iran.
Since mid-January, former U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly flip-flopped on Iran—first threatening to dispatch a carrier strike group, spooking markets into buying safe-haven assets; then abruptly backtracking with “no military action—just watching.” Yesterday, however, Trump announced anew: “A massive fleet is already en route to Iran,” warning that “a major strike is imminent” unless Iran concedes. The situation instantly intensified.
Gold and silver—traditionally safe-haven assets—soared skyward, effectively transforming into risk assets.
More immediately, pressure came from exchanges’ “iron fist.” On January 30, the Shanghai Gold Exchange raised margin requirements for silver deferred contracts—from 19% to 20%—and widened the daily price limit from 18% to 19%. This marks the Nth consecutive intervention by exchanges—including CME, SHFE, and SGE—as domestic and international venues jointly hike margins and restrict new positions to cool down overheated markets.
Historical precedent offers sobering context: After CME raised silver margin requirements five times in 2011, silver prices crashed nearly 30% in three weeks—from $49 to below $35. Even more dramatic was 1980, when exchanges banned speculative buying, triggering silver’s collapse from $50 to $10.
Yet stepping back, medium-term fundamentals remain intact: central banks continue buying gold, and the U.S. dollar’s credibility continues eroding—supportive drivers unchanged. The recent correction is simply technical: prices rose too fast, too far, too quickly. Silver’s volatility inherently exceeds gold’s—making a short-term retreat to $100 or even $90 entirely possible.
New Fed Chair: Trump to Announce Nominee
Another market nerve center: Federal Reserve leadership.
On January 27, Trump publicly criticized current Fed Chair Jerome Powell, accusing him of wanting “to keep interest rates as high as possible,” and added he would “soon announce the next Fed Chair nominee.” U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent hinted the announcement could come as early as this week (the week ending January 26).
On January 29, President Trump stated he would announce the nominee for the next Federal Reserve Chair on Friday, January 30.
Currently, the highest-probability nominee on prediction market Polymarket is:
Kevin Warsh, former Fed Governor.
In recent years, Warsh has issued sharp critiques of the Fed—spanning both short-term policy decisions and long-term strategic considerations.
First, Warsh has consistently criticized the Fed’s aggressive use of its balance sheet over the past fifteen years.
While he supported the Fed’s quantitative easing (QE) program during the global financial crisis, he warned that continued QE afterward was inappropriate—risking inflation, financial instability, and diverting the Fed from its core mandate toward credit-allocation policies that distort market signals.
Warsh further argues that the Fed’s active balance-sheet management ushered in an era of “monetary dominance.” He contends that by artificially suppressing interest rates for extended periods, the Fed played a dominant role in fueling U.S. government debt accumulation.
On January 16, markets convulsed when Trump hinted he might not nominate economist Kevin Hassett—causing the U.S. Dollar Index to surge 30 points, spot gold to plunge $70, and the 10-year Treasury yield to spike to 4.23% (a September high). This underscores just how sensitive markets are to Fed leadership speculation.
U.S. Equities: Microsoft Plunges, SanDisk Soars
On Thursday, January 30, Microsoft’s stock crashed 9.99%, wiping out nearly $360 billion in market value—the second-largest single-day loss on record, surpassed only by NVIDIA’s $60 billion collapse last January during the DeepSeek-related panic.
Yet its earnings report looked stellar on paper: Q2 revenue hit $81.3 billion (+17% YoY), and net income soared to $38.5 billion (+60% YoY). So what went wrong?
The secret behind the 60% net income surge: Of that $38.5 billion, $7.6 billion stemmed from a one-time gain tied to OpenAI’s restructuring. Excluding that, adjusted net income rose only 23%—far less impressive.
Azure growth slows. Microsoft’s cloud division Azure posted revenue growth of 38% YoY—solid on the surface but slightly below Wall Street’s 39.4% expectation. More critically, Azure’s growth momentum is decelerating. As the centerpiece of Microsoft’s AI narrative, any slowdown here rattles investor confidence.
Capital expenditures surged to $37.5 billion, up 66% YoY—exceeding analysts’ forecast of $36.2 billion. CEO Satya Nadella pledged to expand AI capacity by 80% over the next two years. But the burning question remains: At this pace of spending, when will returns materialize?
Wall Street’s core concern is straightforward: “You say AI is the future—we believe you.
But the four tech giants—Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Alphabet—are collectively spending $440 billion on AI infrastructure this year. Where’s the payoff? Azure’s growth is slowing, and its gross margin has fallen to a three-year low of 68%. How does this math add up?”
JPMorgan analysts put it bluntly: “Based on signals from Meta and Microsoft, capex is running above expectations—and AI-related spending is accelerating. The key difference? Meta significantly raised its 2026 revenue outlook; Microsoft did not.”
In stark contrast to Microsoft’s slump, memory chip leader SanDisk surged 17% after hours. Its 2025 share price skyrocketed 577%, making it the top performer in the S&P 500—and momentum remains strong in 2026.
The logic is clear: AI data center construction has ignited a “memory supercycle.” AI servers require 8–10x more storage than conventional servers. With the four tech giants planning $600 billion in AI infrastructure investment by 2026—over 30% of which targets storage hardware—the upside for memory suppliers is enormous.
Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin Breaks Below $85,000—Where Is Faith?
Bitcoin has broken below $85,000—down over 33% from its October peak of $126,080. Ethereum trades sideways between $2,900 and $3,100, repeatedly failing to breach $3,300.
The harshest comparison lies here: Even after their sharp declines, gold remains above $5,100 and silver above $110—up 20% and 40% respectively year-to-date. Bitcoin? Below $85,000.
Institutional sentiment is cooling. Standard Chartered slashed its 2026 Bitcoin price target from $300,000 to $150,000. A Coinbase survey found 54% of institutions view the current phase as either accumulation or outright bearish. Trading volume is shrinking, liquidations are frequent (including multiple mass-liquidation events affecting thousands of traders in January), and while speculation remains rampant, underlying confidence is fragile.
Yet viewed another way, extreme fear and FUD may accelerate the arrival of a bottom.
Core Narrative: Policy Uncertainty Dominates All
Markets on January 30 told just one story: uncertainty.
The precious metals pullback is technical—driven by excessive near-term gains, repeated exchange tightening, and concentrated profit-taking. Yet medium-term fundamentals hold: as long as dollar credibility keeps eroding and central banks keep buying gold, this correction represents opportunity.
The real focal point is the Fed chairmanship battle: Will it be dovish Randal Quarles—or hawkish Kevin Warsh? What does Trump truly want? Can the Fed preserve its independence? Answers to these questions will determine the 2026 rate-cut path—and thereby shape the medium- to long-term trajectories of the dollar, gold, and equities.
Cryptocurrencies occupy the most awkward middle ground—lacking precious metals’ consensus as safe havens, and lacking tech stocks’ earnings support—leaving them reliant solely on speculation.
Markets never lack stories—what they lack is certainty.
Right now, that certainty rests squarely in Trump’s hands.
Risk Disclaimer: Increased short-term technical correction risk for precious metals—especially heightened volatility for silver; the new Fed Chair nominee will define monetary policy direction—any erosion of Fed independence risks triggering a confidence crisis; cryptocurrencies have broken key support levels, exposing elevated leverage risk; concerns over AI-driven equity bubbles are intensifying; geopolitical uncertainty looms from Iran tensions and tariff policies; markets are highly volatile—exercise caution, and manage position sizes prudently.
This article is for market observation only and does not constitute investment advice.
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