HTX DeepThink: This round of Bitcoin market movement is not a simple rebound, but the starting point of a new macro-level pricing cycle
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HTX DeepThink: This round of Bitcoin market movement is not a simple rebound, but the starting point of a new macro-level pricing cycle
In the short term, the market may still be affected by macro data and sentiment fluctuations, but from both liquidity and geopolitical perspectives, the crypto market is being positioned at an extremely favorable macro风口.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insights
Recently, Bitcoin has continued to receive strong buying support at elevated levels despite a lack of clear improvement in macroeconomic data. In this edition of the HTX DeepThink column, HTX Research analyst Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) argues that Bitcoin’s current price action does not resemble a technical bounce, but rather appears to mark the beginning of a new macro pricing phase. Behind this trend, two key macro-level pricing drivers are emerging: one stemming from shifts in liquidity within the U.S. financial system, and the other from the systematic rise in geopolitical risks in the Middle East.
A Housing Policy Angle: The U.S. Financial System Is Undergoing 'Stealth Easing'
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent’s recent comments regarding Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s purchases of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) may seem confined to housing policy, but from a financial structural perspective, this represents a highly significant liquidity event for the crypto market.
While the Federal Reserve continues its quantitative tightening (QT), allowing approximately $15–17 billion worth of MBS to roll off its balance sheet each month, the Trump administration is now using government-supported institutions to buy back these same assets with their own balance sheets. This means that part of the liquidity being drained by the Fed is being reabsorbed through the housing finance system—effectively launching a "shadow QE" within the real estate sector without altering the official monetary policy framework.
For the crypto market, the immediate impact on mortgage rates is less important than whether actual liquidity is returning to the U.S. financial system. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s MBS purchases narrow the yield spread between MBS and Treasuries, freeing up bank balance sheet capacity and enhancing credit expansion potential. In the U.S., real estate lending is one of the largest channels for liquidity transmission—exactly what fueled the 2020–2021 Bitcoin bull run.
This implies that even though the Fed remains cautious about rate cuts, dollar credit is already beginning to expand at the systemic level. When the real estate sector is effectively being propped up again, risk assets are typically the first to reflect this shift—and among all risk assets, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market are the most sensitive to liquidity changes. This explains why Bitcoin continues to see sustained buying pressure at high valuations, even amid stagnant macro indicators.
Escalating Iran Situation: Repricing of Inflation and Currency Uncertainty
Simultaneously, the situation in Iran is providing another critical pricing driver for the crypto market. Iran is experiencing its largest wave of protests since 1979, posing a serious threat to regime stability, while both the U.S. and Israel are preparing for possible political or military intervention.
The over 5% surge in crude oil prices within two days was not driven by inventory or demand shifts, but by markets pricing in risks of energy supply disruptions and regional conflict. Such shocks inherently increase global inflation risks and amplify uncertainty around the U.S. dollar system.
For crypto assets, this kind of structural uncertainty has a clearly positive impact. On one hand, rising energy prices push up production costs and elevate tail risks for inflation. On the other, the U.S. is expanding credit via shadow QE to counter economic pressures. Together, these forces further suppress real interest rates, erode fiat purchasing power, and trigger a repricing of scarce, hard-to-dilute assets.
A Classic Structural Regime Is Emerging
It is precisely under these conditions that we observe gold, silver, and Bitcoin all strengthening simultaneously. These assets are not reacting to short-term risk appetite swings—they are collectively reflecting a shared macro reality. As fiscal policy begins to steer monetary conditions and geopolitical tensions disrupt energy and inflation expectations, decentralized, non-dilutable assets are becoming the preferred safe havens for capital.
Structurally, the crypto market is entering a classic phase: the U.S. dollar is undergoing stealth easing, geopolitical risks are rising, and the long-term valuation anchor for Bitcoin and high-quality crypto assets is gradually being lifted. In the short term, markets may still be affected by macro data releases and sentiment fluctuations. But from the dual perspectives of liquidity and geopolitics, the crypto market is positioned within an exceptionally favorable macro environment.
This is why the current Bitcoin rally looks more like the starting point of a new macro pricing cycle—not just another temporary rebound.
Note: This article does not constitute investment advice nor any offer, solicitation, or recommendation regarding investment products.
About HTX
Founded in 2013, HTX has evolved over 12 years from a cryptocurrency exchange into a comprehensive blockchain business ecosystem encompassing digital asset trading, financial derivatives, research, investment, incubation, and more.
As a leading global Web3 gateway, HTX adheres to a development strategy centered on global expansion, ecosystem growth, wealth creation, security, and compliance, delivering comprehensive, secure, and reliable value and services to crypto enthusiasts worldwide.
To learn more about HTX, visit https://www.htx.com/ or HTX Square, and follow us on X, Telegram, and Discord. For inquiries, please contact glo-media@htx-inc.com.
About HTX Research
HTX Research is the dedicated research arm of HTX, conducting in-depth analysis across cryptocurrencies, blockchain technology, and emerging market trends. It produces comprehensive reports and expert assessments, aiming to deliver data-driven insights and strategic foresight. HTX Research plays a pivotal role in shaping industry discourse and supporting informed decision-making in the digital asset space. With rigorous methodologies and cutting-edge data analytics, HTX Research remains at the forefront of innovation, driving thought leadership and deepening understanding of evolving market dynamics. Visit us.
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