What are the crypto workers still grinding during the Christmas holidays predicting?
TechFlow Selected TechFlow Selected
What are the crypto workers still grinding during the Christmas holidays predicting?
Merry Christmas!
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Castle Labs
Compilation: TechFlow
Welcome to our 152nd special edition newsletter!
To celebrate the year-end, we've specially collected quotes and predictions from the Castle Labs team, the Castle Cap community (all legends), and some friends!
Since we’ve already released a comprehensive year-end report, this time we’re presenting it differently: through direct quotes from builders, experts, researchers, and seasoned traders, sharing their reflections on 2025 and predictions for 2026.
1. Castle Labs Predictions
I hate making predictions! As a researcher, I prefer to make "predictions" based on data. So I only have confidence in a few narratives.
First is robotics. Not just because of its inherent potential, but also because I believe it will gain policy support. Trump has already announced that he might launch a robotics strategy in 2026 and sign an executive order.
Another prediction is that everyone needs to align their investment frameworks closer to traditional finance (TradFi). I think 2026 will be the year protocols operate like companies and rebuild moats, continuing to deeply integrate into the global financial architecture.
In addition, I expect criminal behavior in prediction markets to keep increasing, with insider trading becoming more common. The fact that Trump is involved in prediction markets via his family company itself signals what’s coming.
Last but not least, I expect artificial intelligence (AI) to continue growing—not only replacing more processes but also highlighting threats around privacy, identity, etc. Thus, privacy issues will become increasingly critical. Identity verification solutions like Worldcoin's proof of identity will become more important and help drive innovations such as uncollateralized loans based on on-chain reputation tied to real-world identities.
Therefore, I see 2026 continuing as a year of industry maturation and evaluation. However, none of these developments exist in isolation—the sector is increasingly dependent on macroeconomic and geopolitical news. So you can’t accurately analyze token movements without paying attention to whether Venezuela will be bombed, for example. Our CT political analysts, take note!
@0xatomist
Zero-Knowledge Proofs (ZK) will become central to global digital infrastructure, though their application won't necessarily be limited to "crypto" or blockchain. Instead, they'll gradually permeate the traditional Web2 world, addressing today's severe data accountability crisis—driving adoption of privacy-preserving authentication, secure logins, and verifiable AI technologies.
Whoever develops a "legally compliant and widely accepted" on-chain transaction privacy technology will win big. This is a prerequisite for the first wave of real enterprise and institutional capital flowing on-chain.
The market will gradually realize that crypto is the missing link in robotics development. By 2050, the humanoid robotics market could reach $5 trillion, but currently faces a massive "data barrier," as it can't be trained like simple large language models (LLMs). Practices in 2025 have already proven that Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks (DePIN) and Decentralized Physical AI (DePAI) are the only ways to massively accelerate robot training. Tokenized incentive mechanisms can mobilize global contributors to collect unique motion and environmental data needed for physical AI. Crypto isn’t just about finance anymore—it will become the coordination layer for the machine economy.
@schizoxbt
By 2026, 80% of altcoins and blockchain projects will trend toward zero. The reason is simple: most have terrible tokenomics and offer products with no market demand, making them unworthy investments. As for memecoins, they should go extinct like the dodo bird—they're possibly one of the most absurd things our industry has created.
However, I believe decentralized finance (DeFi) will absolutely revive in 2026. As institutions and traditional finance (TradFi) funds flow onto chains at larger scales, DeFi protocols (the closest thing our industry has to stocks or investable businesses) will be the biggest winners. Their total value locked (TVL) is expected to grow significantly with institutional inflows (hopefully, haha). If institutional money floods in, I wouldn’t be surprised if DeFi TVL exploded and related tokens surged.
While privacy had a small breakout before, it later faded. Yet, I believe privacy protection will make a comeback in 2026 and become a major industry narrative.
Additionally, I hope to see more discussions in 2026 about tokenomics and token holder rights, finding better solutions than current models. The current state of tokenomics is quite bleak—most designs are poor. I’m really looking forward to innovation in this space!
@noveleader
The crypto user base is maturing. At least 2025 taught us one thing: people are losing interest in scams. Moreover, core crypto users are starting to care more about key factors like revenue sources, token holder rights, and returns. Next year, we’ll see more discussion on these issues, and protocols will have to create value for token holders to stay competitive and relevant.
Perpetuals (Perps), privacy, and AI and robotics will grow stronger next year. While average users may not care much about privacy since they’re already “pseudo-anonymous,” institutions, protocols, DAOs, and high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) will place greater emphasis on private fund flows. Perps and on-chain spot trading will capture a larger share of centralized exchange (CEX) volume in 2026, and more financial activity will move on-chain.
User onboarding and capital flow patterns in DeFi will undergo new changes. Current onboarding methods will shift significantly and be replaced by consumer-facing apps. Applications like Aave App and Worldcoin will become primary entry points for new crypto users. This will also help new users better avoid hacks, and “low-risk DeFi” will become more prominent.
**Prediction Markets** will see a breakthrough, but the main market share will be dominated by Polymarket and Kalshi. Although other players will contribute to innovation, they’ll serve niche audiences. Also, building atop mature applications will be highly advantageous. On Polymarket, trading bots will explode—mispricings in any market will be captured within seconds or even milliseconds, especially in faster-resolution markets.
2. Castle Cap Community 2026 Predictions
@0x_ultra - @Kalshi
2025 was the year prediction markets (PMs) evolved from an application into a financial layer, from a niche tool into a new way of trading. Over recent years, our industry has clearly seen the world gradually financializing many aspects of life—including expertise. Now others are discovering what finance looks like through prediction markets. Everyone is an expert in something, and they should have tools to monetize that knowledge.
@proofofjake_ - @ripdotfun
I generally believe the collectibles space will experience exponential growth over the next year. Especially with the upcoming Pokémon 30th anniversary and the One Piece 30th anniversary in 2027. Over the past year, many on-chain real-world assets (RWA) and on-chain collectible projects have shown strong product-market fit (PMF) indicators—for example, Courtyard’s exceptional growth and the potential demonstrated by other projects (such as Dune analytics).
@kirbyongeo - @hypurr_co
Hyperliquid will become the liquidity layer for all finance.
The HIP-3 proposal will increase trading volume tenfold, and new deployers will focus on long-tail assets. We’ll see unique perpetuals (Perps) and innovative models powered by Hyperliquid.
Builder Codes are already empowering existing apps (like Phantom and Metamask) and generating revenue for them. Where capital flows, attention follows—we’ll see more apps built using Builder Codes.
Eventually, technical boundaries will blur and abstract away—people won’t even realize they’re transacting using Hyperliquid’s infrastructure.
Building a blockchain to host all finance is an ambitious goal—the road ahead may be tough and full of challenges. But when you see 100x potential, you drop everything and go all-in.
@mattdotfi- @backedFi
Tokenization gives traditional assets composability and modularity, creating a more inclusive financial ecosystem for institutional and retail users. The explosive growth of tokenized stocks in 2025 shows demand already exists—and this demand will only rise further by adding new use cases across DeFi and beyond.
@ericonomic - @try_supercexy
Perps are breaking out of the crypto Twitter (CT) echo chamber and going mainstream, largely thanks to Hyperliquid’s success. Its rise made many traders aware of the opacity and self-serving operations of most centralized exchanges (CEX), while decentralized exchanges have evolved into genuine alternatives. These platforms now offer CEX-like user experiences while avoiding structural conflicts of interest.
I expect DEX perp trading volume to reach 50% of CEX volume by 2026—and potentially surpass it in reality, since many CEX-reported volumes are inflated or even fabricated. As this trend progresses, many regional and smaller CEXs will gradually migrate to Hyperliquid’s infrastructure, transforming via Builder Codes.
@dandefied - @ryskfinance
2026 will be a defining year for DeFi.
Infrastructure has finally matured—products tested through this cycle are battle-hardened, and institutional players are moving meaningful amounts of capital on-chain. This gives DeFi a real chance to prove it’s not just a niche market or "casino," but a cleaner, safer, and more efficient alternative to traditional finance.
Trading will still be dominated by perps, and Hyperliquid will continue to extend its lead.
Perps remain the dominant on-chain trading product. Liquidity, user experience (UX), and execution quality will determine the winners, and Hyperliquid is far ahead. The emergence of new perp markets (e.g., stock perps) is a promising experiment, but attracting new TradFi users and liquidity will be the main challenge and growth opportunity.
2026 will also be the year options truly go mainstream in DeFi—but not as trading tools, an area already dominated by perps. The real opportunity lies in using options for specific use cases, such as generating income from volatility or building yield structures that don’t require users to handle underlying complexity.
Capital is already shifting toward products that use options under the hood rather than as trading venues, and 2026 will make this trend even clearer.
@reisnertobias
2025–2026: Hyperliquid’s Future
The coming year will be crucial for Hyperliquid realizing its vision of “becoming the blockchain for all finance.” Recently, we’ve seen more teams launching HIP-3 markets on Hyperliquid, covering forex, precious metals, and even Pokémon cards. Beyond pushing advanced tech, Hyperliquid now faces competition from other perp DEXs. Overall market growth is positive, and the future competitive landscape is worth watching.
@insomniac988 - @thetanutsfi
InfoFi is not dead!
Although InfoFi faced challenges in 2025—such as accusations of enabling AI spam, failed incentive projects, and questions about incentives and content quality—that doesn’t mean InfoFi is dead.
Looking back, since Kaito Yaps launched, InfoFi has proven its value and will continue evolving. We’ve seen positive changes: bot behavior crackdowns, better participant profiling via on-chain history, and improvements in measuring mindshare and reward mechanisms.
I believe 2026 will be a year of further maturity for InfoFi—with better mechanisms, simplified incentives, and outcomes better aligned with user and project expectations.
InfoFi is currently undergoing transformation, and I'm personally very interested in this phase.
@CryptoPadawan55
Artificial intelligence (AI) will remain highly popular and a key driver of equity returns, but signs of bubble formation will emerge. For example, overvaluation of AI startups in TradFi, circular financial promises, and long-term loan rates being 100 basis points higher than Treasury yields.
Fundamentally, crypto and AI will thrive in niches like provenance and automation. Patterns effective in Web2 apply to Web3 too, but in Web3, data provenance can be maintained more efficiently via technologies like zero-knowledge proofs (ZKPs), enabling distinction between authentic and AI-generated content in specific contexts.
We won’t see the first mainstream consumer app using LLMs with over 500 million monthly active users (MAU) in 2026. 95% of AI’s value to humans will come from consumer apps leveraging the best LLMs. However, competition in the “LLM frontier” must be resolved first, which will take at least 3–5 years.
A hallucinated ChatGPT misquoting or fabricating provenance and data doesn’t deliver real foundational value.
Currently, top MAU apps focus on generative voice, text, video, and audio. As margins and competition intensify, AI slop and bot problems will worsen in 2026. Platforms will tighten distinctions between generated and human-created content. The more AI slop and botnets there are, the stronger user backlash and demands will grow.
@0xmars_- @moonpay
2025 marks a pivotal turning point for fintech migrating on-chain. Financial apps aren’t just integrating crypto—they’re rebuilding their tech stacks directly on blockchains.
This shift is enabled by two key infrastructures maturing simultaneously:
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On/Off-ramps: Evolving from infrastructure to scalable, user-experience-focused on-chain financial gateways accessible to anyone.
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Stablecoins: Becoming the default way to hold and transfer value on-chain. This isn’t just new infrastructure emerging—it’s the foundation layer for global capital flows, a world where value moves as freely as internet information.
2025 became a key inflection point for fintech embracing blockchain. Financial apps are no longer simply integrating crypto—they’re rebuilding their tech stacks on blockchain infrastructure. This shift is powered by the simultaneous maturity of two core modules: first, fiat-to-crypto channels (on/off ramps) evolving from infrastructure into scalable, user-centric onboarding layers, making on-chain finance easier for everyone; second, stablecoins becoming the default method for storing and transferring value on-chain.
This isn’t just about new infrastructure rising—it’s about building the foundational layer for global value movement. In this new world, value will flow as freely and seamlessly as information on the internet.
@sakshimiishra - @a1research__
The U.S. dollar’s share in global reserves is declining, indicating capital is shifting from the dollar (the fiat global reserve currency) to hard assets like gold. However, due to gold being a physical asset with inherent limitations, Bitcoin becomes the ideal asset for capital parking. Many countries have begun considering Bitcoin for reserves, and more are expected to follow.
Real-world asset tokenization (Real World Tokenisation) is also advancing rapidly, with institutions adopting tokenized assets and on-chain operations taking a more aggressive stance. In 2025, institutions mainly invested in crypto via digital asset trusts (DATs); by 2026, they’ll participate directly in on-chain operations.
However, transparency will become a challenge once institutions enter on-chain environments, so many blockchains will adopt a “Privacy as a Service” operational model. This means users on current popular blockchains will be able to set their activities to private mode.
I expect market volatility to persist in Q1 2025, but Bitcoin prices will perform strongly in Q2, followed by some altcoins. But as we’ve observed in this cycle, there are few ultimate winners—so investment positioning must be cautious.
@darrencamas- @ipor_io
With U.S. midterms approaching, ongoing rate cuts have triggered a risk-on market rebound, falling Treasury yields, and DeFi stablecoin lending optimizers offering attractive risk-reward profiles. Ethena rates are recovering, and the return of DeFi-native yield-generating stablecoins and their looping strategies creates numerous arbitrage opportunities for new real-world asset (RWA) collateral entering the market.
DeFi Fusion is fully unfolding across three areas: lending optimization, leveraged looping strategies, and arbitrage trading.
@route2fi
I’m optimistic about the overall crypto industry outlook, but bearish on altcoins. I believe the altcoin market is nearing saturation—in the past three months alone, we’ve seen countless ICOs drop 50%-70% within 24 hours of their token generation event (TGE).
The crypto industry keeps evolving. I think we’re transitioning from a phase of “hype-driven altcoin promotion” to one focused on “protocol use cases.” To me, this is a positive change—we don’t need more tokens without real utility.
Looking ahead to 2026, I believe TradFi dominance will grow. KYC-gated products like stocks (including spot/perps) and leveraged products in prediction markets will rise. Moreover, I think TradFi will dominate the industry. People like us won’t get hired in the future just for posting on Twitter. That said, I think we still have a 2–5 year window.
unexployed - VC Fund
"'Spray-and-pray' venture capital is dead. Today, projects prefer to validate their products with minimum viable products (MVPs), then raise via public launches. Many VCs have collapsed and pivoted to offering services, consulting, market-making, and OTC deals, trying to preserve private advantages in front of retail. Yet many will realize they have no edge here either. The collapse of these funds is an inevitable and healthy cleansing process for the industry. Some brave VCs have moved into liquid markets, entering the arena as equal competitors."
@defipleb - Chad memecoin trader
In crypto trading, markets typically swing rapidly between extreme greed and extreme fear. Eventually, we’ll return to extreme greed—altcoins will recover, and things will stabilize.
Watch emerging narratives like robotics and prediction markets—these areas are attracting significant capital and could offer the most promising opportunities ahead.
@0xasrequired - @lifiprotocol
The four-year cycle still seems intact, so I expect most of 2026 to trend downward, possibly even seeing a "black swan" event (will more "10/10" events emerge?). However, with quantitative tightening (QT) ending, this time likely won’t be as bad as 2022 or 2018.
I believe orderbook DEXs will continue capturing market mindshare, and their token generation events (TGEs) will outperform the broader market because they’re “cash cows” in crypto. Though some perp DEXs’ token and revenue metrics may be inflated, I don’t see this as a bubble (this might be my “famous last words”), because I don’t believe airdrop incentives are unsustainable. In crypto, we’re used to similar narratives eventually becoming “euthanasia rollercoasters,” but I believe we’re witnessing real market growth.
Hyperliquid still has 42.888% of its HYPE supply reserved for airdrops, with no clear incentives since November 2024. I believe HYPE airdrops can last over a decade, and other perp DEXs may try to copy Hyperliquid’s (expected) model—using multiple airdrops to avoid burning resources all at once and losing most users overnight. Beyond DEXs themselves, I also expect most builder apps—including non-Hyperliquid builders and HIP-3 DEXs—to conduct multiple airdrops. Even if they don’t, new airdrop projects won’t be lacking.
3. Predictions from Castle Friends
@joshuacheong - @mantle_official
Real-world assets (RWAs) are moving from experimentation to scale—from today’s ~$36B market size, aiming for trillions within this decade. Fixed-income assets first proved demand, and tokenized stocks growing over 100x in a year revealed the next growth engine. In 2026, utilization of assets will matter more than issuance volume: assets that can be collateralized, borrowed against, traded 24/7, and reused in DeFi will dominate. Institutional adoption will deepen through infrastructure like on-chain settlement and messaging layers, not retail-facing brands.
Retail participation will accelerate as minimum investment thresholds drop from millions to just a few dollars, with liquidity remaining open on weekends. The huge gap between today’s 0.01% tokenization penetration and the actual market size represents untapped potential. Liquidity fragmentation remains a constraint, and interoperability will be the release valve. By 2026, RWA success won’t be measured by total on-chain asset value, but by how frequently those assets turn over.
@dabit3- @eigencloud
Three things saw breakthrough progress in 2025:
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Crypto gained real legitimacy in traditional finance;
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AI agents achieved true product-market fit with crypto primitives;
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x402 opened a new chapter for mass-scale internet-native payments. Previously, people asked, “Why use crypto for this?” Now we have a clear answer: “Why not use crypto?”
@sukiorlove- @chaoslabs
DeFi will only get more complex. Over the past year, market activity centered on advanced looping strategies like Ethena and Pendle, and projects like Maple began adopting similar structures.
Yield-generating stablecoins will diversify significantly: more risk tranching, more diverse sources, and products designed around predictable risk/return models—not just chasing the highest (risk-unadjusted) yields.
DeFi is also showing more layering trends. Assets begin behaving like L1s, lending protocols like L2s, and vaults like L3s—each layer packaging risk, liquidity, and composability differently. This “stacked abstraction” will greatly improve market efficiency, especially as more quant-savvy participants enter, bringing tighter pricing, faster arbitrage, and more efficient capital allocation.
Narrative debates around liquidity fragmentation and risk isolation will continue. No clear “winner” will emerge until TVL grows by orders of magnitude.
@Oxwizzdom
Privacy tech will become a moat, maturing and deeply integrating into emerging crypto sectors—from prediction markets to stablecoins—projects like MiragePrivacy already show early examples of this fusion.
New forms of prediction markets also began emerging by late 2025—projects like Bentodotfun, Predictdotfun, and 42space.
Additionally, Solana’s x402 activity will surge, primarily driven by Tempo, Arc, and similar projects. Most enterprises will favor Solana’s neutrality, further boosting network activity.
Meanwhile, the pace of new L2 protocol launches may slow, as investors, institutions, and users increasingly prioritize product-market fit and real utility over raw TPS.
@xbteneighty - @theblock__
High fragmentation across the ecosystem (L1s/L2s/DeFi) increases reliance on interoperability protocols and intent systems.
Stablecoins, perps, and privacy tech become focal points for institutions and newcomers.
User experience (UX) improves across the stack, with non-native users (i.e., regular non-crypto users) becoming the new primary target audience.
@litocoen - @socketprotocol
I believe we’ve long been in a bear market—accepting this reality and stopping your portfolio comparisons to all-time highs (ATH) will make you happier and more successful. Why are we in a bear market? One word: uncertainty. I don’t need to list every factor—just look at today’s world. As key issues (tariffs, wars, quantum computing, etc.) are resolved or priced in, this uncertainty will gradually ease. But right now, it hangs over us like a sword of Damocles.
Beyond being in a bear market, crypto is experiencing a “power transition.” The “bubble years” are over—Wall Street and Silicon Valley are arriving, bringing their P/E ratios, customer acquisition costs (CAC), and unit economics. I’m personally excited about this new phase. I believe we’ll see unprecedented acceleration in product development and utility in crypto. The past two years
The two brilliant founders of Hyperliquid and Ethena scaled their products at astonishing speed, building billion-dollar companies and products superior to anything crypto delivered in the past decade.
I don’t yet have a clear summary on how to prepare for this new phase of crypto, except to closely monitor market dynamics and deeply understand founder capabilities. I’ll share more as my thoughts clarify. By the way, this doesn’t mean only banks and Wall Street will benefit in the next era. Far from it. Crypto-native strategies (like token incentives, globalization, highly engaged user bases) still have advantages, and cypherpunk ideals like privacy now have stronger product-market fit (PMF) than ever. I just believe the game will be reshuffled. Some DeFi founders won’t adapt and will be eliminated; others will thrive, and new players will emerge.
Areas I’m bullish on:
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Credit: Projects like USDai or Daylight, issuing credit for infrastructure expansion and financing via data-model-based underwriting.
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DeFi Innovation: Examples like Fluid, merging money markets and DEXs to boost capital efficiency (I think DEX v2 will make them the #1 DEX), and protocols making DeFi yields more accessible externally (e.g., aggregation, tranching, interest rate swaps).
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Exchanges: The “perpification of everything” trend is accelerating—perp trading moving on-chain is crystal clear. I believe we’ll eventually see a CEX-like dynamic with five major players. Currently, Hyperliquid leads, but Lighter, Extended, Ethereal, and Ostium are strong contenders (Hyena isn’t a real competitor—it’s built on Hyperliquid).
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Prediction Markets: The CFTC’s decision to legalize prediction markets is a major milestone. Though not native to crypto, as a new industry, it makes sense for all major players to use crypto tech (stablecoins, smart contracts for settlement, tokenization for composability). Polymarket and Kalshi will likely launch tokens, and we’ll see upstream innovation (e.g., lending markets, specialized terminals like Fireplace.gg).
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Neobanks & SuperApps: Integrating all crypto primitives (perps, spot, stablecoins, yield) into a single easy-to-use but non-custodial mobile app remains a massive latent opportunity—and now is the time.
Of course, entirely new things may emerge—this industry often surprises us. We can’t predict everything, but one thing is certain:
Crypto will ultimately triumph.
Tim - DeFi Strategist
This year’s market has been rollercoaster-like. It started strong, ETH corrected sharply due to political factors, then hit ATH on DAT buying and renewed market confidence—but now the market is trending down again. BTC’s price range has stabilized due to TradFi capital inflows.
Looking ahead, I expect BTC to trade between $75K and $140K next year, ETH between $2K and $6K. Growth in RWAs and private credit will help diversify on-chain risks, while on-chain yields will fall further. 2026’s DATs will focus on moving assets into vaults to generate extra yield for underlying assets.
@crypto_linn
We’ve never had more tailwinds, yet crypto seems to have lost its identity of “fighting against something.” If you feel you’re “resisting” TradFi and banks, enduring market pullbacks is easier—but when they join, things get complicated. With TradFi comes their “TradFi games”… Still, with a bit of patience, you’ll be rewarded. I expect 2026 to be a big year, especially for those consistently DCAing through volatility.
Also, no one can predict what surprise Pendle will bring in 2026.
@deankd_ - @rwa_xyz
Currently, the U.S. leads in tokenization, but Europe—especially Germany—is rapidly gaining share. Germany’s stablecoin market cap grew from ~$500M in 2025 to nearly $4B, driven by MiCA, attracting more institutional demand.
We’ll see traditional institutions and commercial banks launch many tokenized money market funds. Existing players now recognize tokenization improves liquidity and reduces operating costs—making it an obvious evolutionary path.
The value of tokenized private credit could double, as issuers discover representing off-chain loans on-chain significantly boosts operational efficiency.
To me, 2026 will be the breakout year for tokenized U.S. stocks. Corporate bonds may remain relatively sluggish, as the current market structure is already “good enough” for most issuers.
Overall, institutional interest has shifted from “Should we explore tokenization?” to “How fast can we act?” I talk daily with banks, regulators, and asset managers—it’s clear more liquidity is preparing to enter, especially in H1 2026.
Today, most tokenized assets face B2B go-to-market (GTM) challenges, not technical issuance issues. I predict the biggest change in tokenization in 2026 will be in GTM strategy, not the tech itself. Many overlook basic growth principles—like focusing on buyers, not assets. Institutions won’t buy any “tokenized asset”—they’ll only buy assets meeting their compliance and custody requirements.
@wajahat- @spreads_fi
General View on Yields (Stablecoins and Other Yield Assets):
Yields are becoming commoditized—simply offering high APRs is no longer enough for a business, protocol, or issuer to stand out. Few yield products today can build real moats. It’s all about distribution.
Still, exceptions exist—like yield categories normally inaccessible:
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Rysk (options yield)
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Yield Basis (AMM yield, no impermanent loss)
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Neutrl (OTC yield)
We’ll see various exotic and interesting yield products emerge from Web2—like private credit and insurance yields.
DeFi yields are purely speculative. If leverage demand and speculation in crypto decline, yields will collapse to T-bill levels.
When people start speculating on BTC again, when BTC finally shows some green candles, expect yields to rise again!
DeFi Expectations for 2026:
2026 will see a massive tokenized stock ecosystem. Not just asset issuance—I expect to see automated market makers (AMMs), order books, derivatives, yield products for nearly every stock on-chain, operating as smoothly and simply as buying ETH on-chain today. (Spreads will continue deepening in this space.)
@blueclarityone- @layerzero_core
In 2025, crypto marketing matured more than in any previous year. As the industry enters early adoption, marketing’s role is shifting from proving relevance and grabbing attention to earning trust. We see a clear split: algorithm-driven short-term tactics aimed at virality versus more strategic, long-term brand-building targeting audiences beyond core DeFi users.
More major crypto brands are investing in traditional marketing channels—email, paid social, research reports, and growing LinkedIn presence. With crypto effectively validated in 2025, institutional and financial service adoption accelerated, driving extensive co-marketing (“logo x logo”) to gain credibility and alignment with established brands outside DeFi—a trend continuing into 2026.
Meanwhile, marketing messages are shifting from product-centric narratives to more emotionally resonant, identity-driven ones, as audiences grow tired of superficial metrics, blockchain jargon, and marginal performance claims. While attention-grabbing tricks are fading, brand mindshare remains key to relevance and share of voice—this won’t disappear from marketing.
What interests me most is how user acquisition strategies will evolve next. For a crypto-powered neobank, executing correctly and borrowing from traditional banking playbooks offers a real shot at winning significant market share.
@hufhaus9 - @pear_protocol
Core 2026 Thesis: Widening Return Divergence Between Quality and Junk Assets
Assets like BTC have structural buyers, e.g., ETF allocations. Also, TradFi firms raising asset allocation from 1% to 3% could have a significant impact. Meanwhile, revenue-generating protocols can expand offerings into previously inaccessible equities and RWAs due to high regulatory barriers.
Yet many top 100 projects still have large token unlocks with no marginal buyers. By 2026, BTC dominance (BTC.d) will likely find a bottom around 60% and trend higher throughout the year. The “long BTC / short junk” strategy will be validated in both bull and bear markets.
Other thematic long/short ideas I like include:
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Long MNT / Short BNB: With Bybit aggressively competing for CEX market share and deeper MNT integration into its ecosystem, this trade deserves attention.
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In the DEX space, competition intensifies—we’ll keep seeing innovation around optimizing collateral and its yields.
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The combination of centralized limit order books (CLOBs) with DeFi tools is fascinating and will keep evolving. Projects like Nado, Extended, and Hyperliquid are redefining the value proposition for users choosing their platforms.
Overall, I’m cautious on the macro outlook—expecting BTC to find a bottom between $65K and $70K, gradually recovering around the U.S. midterms in November 2026.
Hope you enjoyed these unfiltered thoughts and predictions for the year ahead! Rest well during the holidays—we’ll see you next year!
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