As December begins, both the global macro environment and the crypto market have entered a critical observation period. This week's密集 release of manufacturing, employment, and inflation data will serve as the core basis for markets to reassess the Fed's rate cut path amid the statistical vacuum caused by the previous U.S. government shutdown; equity liquidity and crypto market sentiment are also undergoing repricing accordingly. In this column, Chloe, researcher at HTX Research (@ChloeTalk1), analyzes the current risk landscape and potential evolution paths based on macroeconomic data, U.S. equities, and structural changes in the crypto market.
High-frequency indicators converge, rate cut expectations face repricing
Currently, macro and crypto markets are in a typical "data-dense + policy inflection uncertain" window. Although the market broadly bets on another Fed rate cut in December, Powell emphasized last week that due to the absence of official economic data from the government shutdown, policymakers may not receive complete labor and inflation metrics before the meeting. Therefore, this week’s cluster of high-frequency data releases will directly determine whether rate cut probabilities fall back to 50% or rise close to 100%.
First is the November ISM Manufacturing PMI. The manufacturing sector has remained in contraction since March, with last month’s reading at just 48.7. Subcomponents for new orders and employment were both below 50, reflecting ongoing pressure from tariffs and global demand uncertainty. In contrast, the Services PMI held steady at 52.4, indicating mild expansion, but its prices component stayed elevated near 70, showing inflationary pressure stems from domestic services rather than imports. If November’s services data strengthens again, it will reinforce dovish skepticism within the Fed; if it falls back toward 50, a December rate cut would be nearly certain.
The labor market remains the most influential variable. With October’s nonfarm payrolls canceled and November’s report not due until December 16 (after the meeting), this week’s ADP private sector employment data becomes pivotal. October ADP added 42,000 jobs—above expectations. An unexpectedly strong November print would weaken rate cut expectations; weakness would bolster arguments for faster policy easing. Closely watched Challenger job-cut report follows: October saw layoffs surge to 153,074—the highest in 22 years. Further increases in November would prompt markets to reprice downside risks to the U.S. economy.
The release of PCE inflation and personal spending on Friday is this week’s most important event. Market expects headline PCE to rise slightly from 2.7% to 2.8%, while core PCE holds at 2.9%. If data continues to show “inflation stuck around 3%,” the Fed’s ability to cut rates will be constrained; any weaker-than-expected print could provide short-term relief and support market recovery.
Risk appetite under pressure, markets await directional signals
In U.S. equities, Goldman Sachs’ trading desk notes that as volatility declines and market breadth recovers from -150 early in the month to +150, systemic selling pressure in U.S. stocks has been largely released by mid-November. December institutional models now project a shift from net selling to approximately $4.7 billion in net buying, suggesting the traditional "Santa rally" isn't entirely off the table—though its emergence still hinges on whether this week’s data supports a dovish policy path.
In the crypto market, HTX data shows that after a nearly 30% pullback from its October highs, Bitcoin has recently reclaimed $85,000, yet overall sentiment remains in a phase of “weak sentiment and thin liquidity.” ETFs continue modest net outflows, Coinbase premium stays low, indicating institutions remain cautious. Options data reflects a classic risk-averse structure: short-term IV significantly exceeds long-term, and 25-delta put skew is negative across all maturities. Investors continue paying premiums for downside protection, signaling high expectations for near-term volatility.
Trend unclear, macro data to act as watershed
Overall, the current crypto market sits at a sensitive juncture—“unclear outlook, yet bottoming structures gradually emerging.” If this week’s U.S. data shows a combination of slowing growth without falling into recession, alongside marginal cooling in inflation, Bitcoin and major assets could see organic recovery, IV may decline rapidly, and volatility-selling strategies could regain effectiveness. Conversely, if manufacturing, employment, or PCE readings come in significantly stronger than expected—cooling rate cut odds—crypto markets may experience another sharp downturn during the seasonally illiquid holiday period.
Under these conditions, taking large directional positions carries higher risk. Structurally, lower price ranges often attract gradual long-term accumulation, while persistently high short-end IV offers hedging opportunities. The $80,000–$82,000 range for Bitcoin remains a key support zone, but whether the trend can reverse depends on this week’s macro data delivering clearer directional signals.
Note: This article does not constitute investment advice nor any offer, solicitation, or recommendation regarding investment products.
About HTX
HTX was founded in 2013. After 12 years of development, it has evolved from a cryptocurrency exchange into a comprehensive blockchain business ecosystem encompassing digital asset trading, financial derivatives, research, investment, incubation, and more.
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About HTX Research
HTX Research is the dedicated research arm of HTX, conducting in-depth analysis across cryptocurrencies, blockchain technology, and emerging market trends. It produces comprehensive reports and expert assessments, aiming to deliver data-driven insights and strategic foresight. HTX Research plays a vital role in shaping industry perspectives and supporting informed decision-making in the digital asset space. With rigorous methodology and cutting-edge data analytics, HTX Research remains at the forefront of innovation, driving thought leadership and deeper understanding of evolving market dynamics. Visit us.
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