Ice and Fire in the Crypto World: Collapse, Shutdown, and Opportunity
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Ice and Fire in the Crypto World: Collapse, Shutdown, and Opportunity
For conservative investors: remain patient, as the current market direction is unclear, maintaining ample cash is the best strategy.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Hotcoin Research
Crypto Market Performance
The current total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $3.46 trillion, with BTC accounting for 59%, or $2.04 trillion. The stablecoin market cap stands at $305.4 billion, down 0.63% over the past seven days. Notably, stablecoin supply has seen negative growth for two consecutive weeks, with USDT representing 60.08%.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most declined while a few rose: ICP gained 199.52% over 7 days, FIL rose 122.46%, DASH increased by 59.5%, AR surged 132.2%, and ZK climbed 100.94%.
This week, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $1.207 billion; U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs saw net outflows of $50.8 million.
Market Outlook (November 10 - November 14):
The current RSI index is 59.64 (neutral range), the Fear & Greed Index is 21 (down from last week, in fear territory), and the Altseason Index is 39 (lower than last week).
BTC core range: $100,000–107,000
ETH core range: $3,100–3,800
SOL core range: $152–186
Market Sentiment: This week, the crypto market is experiencing a "fire and ice" duality. On one hand, Trump declared, “I want to make America a Bitcoin superpower,” and reports suggest companies like Tether are accumulating at lows. On the other hand, there are “ETF outflows, declining stablecoin supply, whale sell-offs, and attacks on established DeFi projects.” This indicates a transitional phase between old and new holders. Due to numerous negative factors, the market sentiment has turned “extremely fearful.” However, such indicators often act as contrarian signals, suggesting excessive pessimism and a potential rebound could be imminent.
Institutional movements should be closely monitored: whether Bitcoin ETF flows can return to inflows, and whether Solana ETFs can maintain strong capital attraction (with a single-day inflow of $29 million last week) will be key indicators of institutional confidence.
For conservative investors: remain patient. With market direction unclear, holding ample cash remains the best strategy.
For active traders: follow breakout directions closely. Key levels must be watched next week. Trade within ranges using buy-low-sell-high strategies and enforce timely stop-losses.
Understanding the Present
Weekly Major Events Recap
1. On November 2, according to fees.pump.fun data, Pump.fun spent 7,453.81 SOL (approximately $1.395 million) to repurchase 303.9 million PUMP tokens. Since starting buybacks on July 15, the total value of repurchased PUMP tokens has reached about $160.8 million, reducing the total circulating supply by 10.043%;
2. On November 3, Lookonchain reported that stolen funds from the major DeFi protocol Balancer exceeded $116.6 million;
3. On November 3, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju noted, “The Korean stock index (KOSPI) hit a record high, while trading volume on Korean crypto exchanges hit a yearly low”;
4. On November 3, the Berachain Foundation announced, “Validator nodes have coordinated to pause the Berachain network so the core team can execute an emergency hard fork to fix a vulnerability related to Balancer V2 on BEX. This network pause is planned, and operations will resume shortly”;
5. On November 4, after nearly a record-long federal government shutdown, the U.S. Congress showed its first signs of potentially ending the impasse. Senate Republican and Democratic leaders discussed possible “exit strategies” to resolve the deadlock;
6. On November 5, the Canadian government formally unveiled its regulatory plan for stablecoins in its fiscal planning, aligning with U.S. regulations by overseeing fiat-backed stablecoins and requiring issuers to maintain adequate reserves and robust risk management practices. The Bank of Canada will allocate 10 million CAD over the first two years starting in FY 2026–2027, followed by an estimated annual cost of 5 million CAD borne by stablecoin issuers regulated under the Retail Payment Activities Act;
7. On November 6, during his speech at the “American Business Forum” in Miami, Florida (local time, 1 PM on November 5), Trump called for the U.S. to embrace crypto assets (digital currencies) and expressed ambitions to lead in this field. Trump stated: “I want to make America a ‘Bitcoin superpower’”;
8. On November 7, according to DefiLlama data, USDe, the stablecoin issued by Ethena Labs, has dropped to a market cap of $8.95 billion, down approximately 45% from its peak of around $16 billion in early October. USDe briefly depegged severely during the crypto downturn on October 11, falling to $0.65 on some decentralized exchanges;
9. On November 7, HTX market data showed Bitcoin dropping below $100,000, with a 24-hour decline of 2.8%.
Macroeconomic Overview
1. On November 5, U.S. October ADP employment change was 42,000, higher than the expected 28,000;
2. On November 6, the Bank of England held its benchmark interest rate steady at 4.00%, meeting market expectations and pausing its quarterly rate cuts that began in August 2024;
3. On November 7, according to Fed funds futures, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December is 62.3%.
ETFs
Data shows that between November 3 and November 7, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs had net outflows of $1.207 billion. As of November 7, GBTC (Grayscale) has seen cumulative outflows of $24.702 billion, currently holding $17.746 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) holds $82.587 billion. The total market cap of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs is $139.642 billion.
U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs had net outflows of $50.8 million.
Anticipating the Future
Upcoming Events
1. Bitcoin Amsterdam 2025 will take place in Amsterdam, Netherlands, on November 13–14, 2025;
2. Devconnect will be held in Buenos Aires, Argentina, from November 17 to 22, 2025. This major technical event will bring together core participants of the Ethereum ecosystem. During the event, Ethereum builders, educators, and protocol teams will advance blockchain innovation through hands-on workshops, in-depth technical talks, and community-led seminars;
3. Bitcoin MENA will take place at the Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre (ADNEC) on December 8–9;
4. Solana Breakpoint 2025 will be held in Abu Dhabi from December 11 to 13.
Project Updates
1. Square, Jack Dorsey’s payment company, will officially launch Bitcoin payments on November 10;
2. Starknet v0.14.1 upgrade will go live on testnet on November 11 and mainnet on November 25.
Key Events
1. On November 9, China will release its October CPI year-on-year data;
2. On November 13, the U.S. will release its October unadjusted CPI year-on-year figure (pending confirmation);
3. On November 13, the U.S. will report the weekly initial jobless claims (in thousands) for the week ending November 8 (pending confirmation).
Token Unlocks
1. Linea (LINEA) will unlock 2.8 billion tokens on November 10, worth approximately $33.48 million, representing 16.44% of circulating supply;
2. Aptos (APT) will unlock 11.31 million tokens on November 11, worth approximately $35.17 million, representing 0.69% of circulating supply;
3. io.net (IO) will unlock 12.18 million tokens on November 11, worth approximately $3.85 million, representing 5.55% of circulating supply;
4. Solayer (LAYER) will unlock 27.02 million tokens on November 11, worth approximately $5.7 million, representing 9.51% of circulating supply;
5. Avalanche (AVAX) will unlock 1.67 million tokens on November 13, worth approximately $28.19 million, representing 0.33% of circulating supply;
6. Walletconnect Token (WCT) will unlock 124 million tokens on November 15, worth approximately $14.03 million, representing 65.21% of circulating supply;
7. Starknet (STRK) will unlock 126 million tokens on November 15, worth approximately $14.32 million, representing 5.34% of circulating supply;
8. Arbitrum (ARB) will unlock 92.65 million tokens on November 16, worth approximately $25.79 million, representing 1.94% of circulating supply.
About Us
Hotcoin Research, as the core research institution of Hotcoin Exchange, is dedicated to transforming professional analysis into practical tools for investors. Through our “Weekly Insights” and “In-Depth Reports,” we dissect market trends. Our exclusive column “Top Picks” (AI + expert dual screening) helps identify promising assets and reduce trial-and-error costs. Each week, our researchers also engage directly with you via live streams, interpreting hot topics and forecasting trends. We believe that warm, consistent support combined with professional guidance can help more investors navigate market cycles and capture value opportunities in Web3.
Risk Disclaimer
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and inherently risky. We strongly advise investors to fully understand these risks and operate within a strict risk management framework to ensure fund safety.
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