Will the market perform best in the last two months of the year? Should you rush in now or run?
TechFlow Selected TechFlow Selected
Will the market perform best in the last two months of the year? Should you rush in now or run?
If the four-year cycle theory is dead, how much more can Bitcoin rise this time?
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsBy: Lüdong
October is drawing to a close, and the crypto market appears to be showing signs of an upward trend.
Over the past two months, "caution" has almost become the dominant theme in the crypto market, especially after the massive crash on October 11. As the impact of that downturn gradually fades, market sentiment hasn't continued to deteriorate—instead, new hope is emerging.
Starting from late October, several bullish signals have begun to appear: net inflows turning positive, a wave of altcoin ETF approvals, and rising expectations for interest rate cuts.
ETF Capital Rebounds as Institutions Return
The most striking data this October comes from ETFs.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a cumulative net inflow of $4.21 billion this month, completely reversing September's outflow of $1.23 billion. Assets under management have reached $178.2 billion, accounting for 6.8% of Bitcoin’s total market cap. In just one week—from October 20 to 27—$446 million in fresh capital flowed in, with BlackRock’s IBIT alone capturing $324 million, bringing its holdings to over 800,000 BTC.
In traditional finance, ETF inflows are the most direct bull signal—they’re more honest than social media hype and more truthful than candlestick charts.
More importantly, this rally truly carries an “institutional” flavor. Morgan Stanley has now opened BTC and ETH allocation to all its wealth management clients; JPMorgan allows institutional clients to use Bitcoin as loan collateral;
According to the latest data, the average institutional allocation to crypto assets has risen to 5%, a record high. Moreover, 85% of institutions say they have already allocated or plan to allocate to digital assets.
Although Ethereum ETFs seem somewhat overshadowed compared to Bitcoin spot ETFs, with a total net outflow of $555 million in October—the first consecutive net outflows since April 2021, primarily from Fidelity and BlackRock’s ETH funds.
But this may also be a new signal—capital is rotating, shifting from ETH to BTC and SOL, which offer greater upside potential, or perhaps positioning for upcoming new ETF launches.
A Wave of Altcoin ETFs Is Coming
On October 28, the U.S. launched its first batch of altcoin ETFs, covering Solana, Litecoin, and Hedera. Bitwise and Grayscale introduced SOL ETFs, while Canary Capital’s LTC and HBAR ETFs were approved for trading on Nasdaq.
But this is only the beginning.
Reports indicate that another 155 altcoin ETFs are currently awaiting approval, spanning 35 major assets, with total inflows expected to exceed the initial phases of both Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF rollouts combined.
If all are approved, the market could face an unprecedented "liquidity shockwave."
Historically, the launch of Bitcoin ETFs led to over $50 billion in cumulative inflows, while Ethereum ETFs brought in an additional $25 billion in assets.
ETFs are not just financial products—they function more like "on-ramps" for capital. When this on-ramp expands from BTC and ETH to include SOL, XRP, LINK, AVAX, and other altcoins, the entire market’s valuation framework will be repriced.
Institutional interest in crypto assets is growing stronger.
In addition, ProShares is preparing to launch the CoinDesk 20 ETF, tracking 20 assets including BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP; REX-Osprey’s 21-Asset ETF goes further by allowing holders to earn staking yields from tokens such as ADA, AVAX, NEAR, SEI, and TAO.
There are 23 ETFs alone waiting for approval to track Solana. This level of concentrated development is tantamount to a public declaration: institutional risk appetite is extending from Bitcoin into the broader DeFi ecosystem.
From a macro perspective, this liquidity expansion potential is enormous. As of October 2025, the global stablecoin market cap is nearing $300 billion. Once activated through ETFs, this "liquidity reserve" could trigger a powerful multiplier effect. For example, every $1 that flows into Bitcoin ETFs eventually translates into multiple dollars of market cap growth.
If the same mechanism applies to altcoin ETFs, hundreds of billions in new capital could drive another boom across the DeFi landscape.
The Wind of Rate Cuts Brings Fresh Liquidity
Besides ETFs, another factor reshaping the market stems from the familiar macro backdrop.
On October 29, there is a 98.3% probability the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points. Markets seem to have already priced this in— the dollar index weakened, risk assets rallied collectively, and Bitcoin broke above $114,900.
What does a rate cut mean? It means capital is searching for new outlets.
And in 2025, when traditional markets largely lack imagination, crypto remains the place “still telling stories.”
More interestingly, this round of tailwinds comes not only from the market but also from policy.
On October 27, the White House nominated Michael Selig—a former crypto lawyer known for his friendly stance—as the new CFTC chair. The SEC also updated its ETP creation mechanism, allowing crypto ETFs to conduct in-kind redemptions, greatly simplifying operations.
On the topic of “regulatory friendliness,” the U.S. market isn’t just loosening up—it’s opening the door wide. Instead of suppressing innovation, the government is now trying to allow the crypto industry to exist “compliantly.”
On-chain data also corroborates this shift.
DeFi’s total value locked (TVL) grew 3.48% in October to reach $157.5 billion. Ethereum’s chain TVL hit $88.6 billion, up 4%; Solana rose 7%; BSC surged 15%. This represents not just “capital return,” but a return of trust.
Bitcoin futures open interest climbed to $53.7 billion, with positive funding rates, indicating longs are in control. Whale wallets are accumulating—some large players bought $350 million worth of BTC within five hours. On secondary markets, Uniswap’s monthly trading volume exceeded $161 billion, Raydium surpassed $20 billion—ecosystem activity continues to rise.
These on-chain metrics form the hardest-core bullish evidence: capital is moving, positions are increasing, and trading is heating up.
Why Are Top Analysts Bullish?
Arthur Hayes: The Four-Year Cycle Is Dead, Long Live the Liquidity Cycle
In a blog post titled “Long Live the King” on Thursday, Arthur Hayes wrote that while some crypto traders expect Bitcoin to soon peak and crash next year, he believes this time will be different.
His core argument: Bitcoin’s “four-year cycle” is obsolete because what truly drives the market has never been “halving,” but rather the global liquidity cycle—especially monetary policy synchronization between the U.S. dollar and Chinese yuan.
The past three bull-bear cycles seemed to follow a rhythm of “bull run after halving, repeating every four years,” but Hayes argues this was merely superficial. That pattern held because each cycle coincided with periods of aggressive balance sheet expansion by the Fed or PBOC, ultra-low interest rates, and global credit easing. For instance:
-
2009–2013: The Fed’s unlimited QE and China’s massive lending spree;
-
2013–2017: RMB credit expansion fueled the ICO boom;
-
2017–2021: “Helicopter money” under Trump and Biden flooded the system with liquidity.
When credit expansion from these two currencies slowed, Bitcoin’s bull runs ended. In short, Bitcoin has simply been a barometer of global monetary easing.
By 2025, the logic of “halving-driven” cycles has completely collapsed. U.S. and Chinese monetary policies have entered a new normal—political pressures demand sustained easing, and liquidity will no longer tighten cyclically.
The U.S. needs to “heat up” its economy to dilute debt, with Trump pushing for rate cuts and fiscal expansion; China, fighting deflation, is also releasing credit. Both nations are injecting capital into markets.
Thus, Hayes concludes: “The four-year cycle is dead. The real cycle is the liquidity cycle. As long as the U.S. and China keep printing, Bitcoin will keep rising.”
This means future crypto markets won’t be dictated by the “halving” schedule, but by the direction of the U.S. dollar and Chinese yuan. He ends with a phrase: “The king is dead, long live the king”—the old cycle has ended, but a new, liquidity-driven Bitcoin cycle has just begun.
Raoul Pal: A 5.4-Year Cycle Replaces the Traditional 4-Year Cycle
Raoul Pal’s 5-year cycle theory represents a fundamental rethinking of the traditional 4-year Bitcoin halving narrative. He argues that the conventional 4-year cycle wasn’t driven by Bitcoin’s protocol, but rather by coincidence—the past three cycles (2009–2013, 2013–2017, 2017–2021) happened to align with global debt refinancing cycles.
The end of those cycles was triggered by monetary tightening—not by halving events themselves.
The key structural shift occurred during 2021–2022, when the average maturity of U.S. debt extended from around 4 years to 5.4 years under near-zero interest rates.
This extension not only altered the debt refinancing timeline but, more importantly, changed the rhythm of global liquidity release—pushing Bitcoin’s cyclical peak from the traditional Q4 2025 to Q2 2026, suggesting a recovery rally will begin in Q4 2025.
In Pal’s view, global debt has reached approximately $300 trillion, with about $10 trillion nearing maturity (mainly U.S. Treasuries and corporate bonds), requiring massive liquidity injections to prevent yield spikes. Each $1 trillion in added liquidity correlates with 5–10% gains in equities and crypto. For crypto, the $10 trillion refinancing could funnel $2–3 trillion into risk assets, driving BTC from its 2024 low of $60,000 to over $200,000 by 2026.
Therefore, Pal’s model predicts an unprecedented liquidity peak in Q2 2026. When the ISM index breaks above 60, Bitcoin will enter the “banana zone,” targeting prices between $200,000 and $450,000.
Join TechFlow official community to stay tuned
Telegram:https://t.me/TechFlowDaily
X (Twitter):https://x.com/TechFlowPost
X (Twitter) EN:https://x.com/BlockFlow_News
BlockBeats
