Nearly 240 million tokens unlocked, the sword of Damocles hanging over $HYPE

2025.09.23

Nearly 240 million tokens unlocked, the sword of Damocles hanging over $HYPE

Successful people always attract the covetous eyes of many "predators."

2025.09.23 - 02:59:39

Hyperliquid

Navigating Web3 tides with focused insights

Successful people always attract the covetous eyes of many "predators."

Author: Maelstrom

Translation: Saoirse, Foresight News

Hyperliquid once enjoyed a period of remarkable growth—its ecosystem flourished, trading volume hit record highs, and the USDH bidding war became one of the most watched "spectacles" in crypto history. But beneath the crown hangs a "sword of Damocles": HYPE is about to face its first real test.

Starting November 29, 237.8 million HYPE tokens will gradually unlock over 24 months. At $50 per token, this amounts to a total value of $11.9 billion for the team's unlocked tokens, equating to nearly $500 million in nominal token value entering the market each month.

What's the problem? Current buyback levels can only absorb around 17% of the unlocking tokens, meaning a monthly oversupply of $410 million in tokens. Has the market fully priced in the impact of such a massive unlock?

Research support: @lukas_rppt

Let’s consider this from another angle: If you were a Hyperliquid developer who had worked tirelessly for years, and now life-changing token allocations are about to unlock—requiring just one click to cash out—what would you do?

Can DAT turn things around?

Sonnet, one of the largest decentralized autonomous teams/funds (DAT) in crypto history, is expected to deploy by Q4 2025. The project has raised approximately $583 million via HYPE tokens and an additional $305 million in cash. However, even when combining Sonnet’s funding with that of smaller HYPE DATs, it remains a mere fraction compared to the incoming volume of HYPE token unlocks.

When sharks smell blood

In crypto, gaining an early lead doesn't guarantee a smooth exit. Markets are battlefields. Historically, most crypto products have short lifecycles—success inevitably attracts predators. Competition is intensifying: pressured by top-tier exchanges and challenged by new entrants like Lighter.xyz (an investment of Maelstrom). And CZ launching Aster two months before the HYPE unlock? That’s unlikely to be a coincidence.