Conversation with Pantera and Lumida Asset Management Heads: Stablecoin Legislation is Just the Beginning, Mainstream Institutions Have Not Yet Made Significant Allocations to Ethereum
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Conversation with Pantera and Lumida Asset Management Heads: Stablecoin Legislation is Just the Beginning, Mainstream Institutions Have Not Yet Made Significant Allocations to Ethereum
Stablecoins welcome their first regulatory framework, marking a new phase for the crypto industry, with complex market reactions and accelerating integration between traditional finance and DeFi.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsCompiled & Translated: LenaXin, ChainCatcher
Original Title: "Stablecoins Are Now Legit, but That's Only the First Step - Bits + Bips"
Hosts: Steve Ehrlich, Senior Writer at Unchained Kingdom; Noelle Atchison, Editor-in-Chief and Chief Analyst of "Crypto is Macro Now"
Guests: Ram Alawalia, Head of Wealth Management at Lumida; Cosmo Jiang, Senior Trader and Liquidity Strategy Portfolio Manager at Pantera Liquid Vault
Podcast Date: July 24, 2025
ChainCatcher Editor's Summary
This article is compiled from the Unchained podcast series Bits + Bips. With the passage of the GENIUS Act and the stablecoin bill, the U.S. has established a clear regulatory framework for stablecoins for the first time.
Why does Noelle say the stablecoin bill is just the beginning? What does Ethereum’s latest rebound signify, and what is its essence? How has Trump’s threat to fire Powell shaken macro sentiment?
This episode discusses Ethereum’s price rise, interpretation of the GENIUS Act, Federal Reserve independence, and the rise of emerging crypto asset management firms.
ChainCatcher has compiled and translated the discussion.
Key Highlights Summary
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Noelle: The stablecoin bill is only the beginning of the regulatory process.
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Noelle: Tokenized money market funds could be the biggest winners.
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Noelle: Circle’s core revenue comes from interest rate spreads, which will eventually shrink.
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Noelle: Current macro data holds no surprises—CPI meets expectations, there’s insufficient justification for rate cuts, and economic growth remains steady.
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Cosmo: Fundamental transformation lies in the legislative improvement of market structure and regulatory frameworks.
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Cosmo: DeFi will be the biggest beneficiary.
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Cosmo: A key challenge for market judgment is defining “the others” from traditional investment wisdom within crypto.
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Cosmo: The success of tokens hinges on economies of scale.
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Cosmo: While Coinbase is the preferred choice, the market can accommodate other competitors—only their allocation weights will differ.
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Ram: Payment giants like Visa and MasterCard are expected to significantly decline in importance over the next decade.
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Ram: There’s an interesting paradox in market mechanics: the more decentralized the system, the more it requires centralized market leadership.
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Ram: Innovations like “shareholders as users” are reshaping market dynamics.
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Ram: Treasury Secretary Besson clearly stated that “stablecoins can strengthen dollar dominance,” a policy direction that significantly benefits Ethereum, where most stablecoin traffic resides.
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Ram: More use cases are expected to emerge in Q4, and the market may see a recovery by year-end or early next year.
The Stablecoin Bill Is Just the Beginning
Steve: What impressions do you have about the bill signing ceremony itself, or the crypto industry’s reaction over the past 72 hours?
Noelle: The U.S. has achieved a substantive breakthrough in cryptocurrency legislation. As the world’s largest financial market, this is the first time the U.S. has introduced dedicated regulatory legislation for crypto—a milestone moment.
The stablecoin bill is only the beginning of the regulatory journey. More complex regulatory frameworks are still being built.
The new rules will allow ETH or Bitcoin to be used for daily spending and may soon be included in pension and 401k investment portfolios.
Ram: The final passage of the bill was made possible by Trump convening 12 congressional leaders at the White House. His subsequent Bitcoin tweet also created a “Trump tweet effect.”
Yet the market reaction was surprising. Despite two major positives—the bill passing and Trump’s tweet—Bitcoin’s price this week is lower than last week’s. This “sell the news” pattern isn’t new. Altcoins like Litecoin showed unusual activity, indicating a highly speculative market environment.
Cosmo: I remain optimistic. Bitcoin had already hit all-time highs with strong year-to-date gains. While short-term price reactions may be muted, the structural improvements in market infrastructure and regulation represent fundamental change.
The most notable aspect of the GENIUS Act is bank behavior. Institutions like JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Bank of America have announced plans to launch their own stablecoins or tokenized deposits, suggesting the transition may accelerate faster than expected. These banks have assembled hundreds-person digital asset teams and invested tens of millions of dollars over years of R&D.
Can Visa and Mastercard Survive the Stablecoin Disruption?
Steve: The passage of the first crypto bill marks a new phase for the industry. Future regulatory details and market reactions will determine whether this translates into real momentum. The market now faces a critical choice: exit on the news, or continue building positions?
Ram: This milestone will bring two fundamental shifts:
1. Cryptocurrency and fintech are converging, restructuring financial infrastructure such as custody, lending, and payments.
2. The traditional payment system will undergo structural transformation. The importance of payment giants like Visa and MasterCard will significantly decline over the next decade. The GENIUS Act marks the beginning of this shift.
Noelle: I’m cautious about the speed of displacement for these payment giants. Visa and MasterCard’s core strengths lie in decades of accumulated customer service, dispute resolution, and merchant management systems.
Moreover, if payment giants like Alipay enter the stablecoin space, the competitive landscape could become even more complex.
Cosmo: How will the profit pool from stablecoins be distributed? Will it spawn entirely new businesses, or be absorbed by existing financial institutions?
Noelle: In a low-yield environment, Circle’s core revenue model based on interest rate spreads will face challenges. Investors may turn to DeFi for higher returns.
Ram: The market will evolve diversely. Traditional banks and tech giants will compete, and over the next three years, we’ll see niche stablecoins emerge for different use cases. Ultimately, end consumers will benefit the most.
Who Benefits Most from the New Stablecoin Law?
Steve: Can each of you name a less obvious winner or loser?
Ram: Traditional financial institutions will be major beneficiaries. Custodia Bank led by Caitlin Long and infrastructure banks like Cross River Bank will gain significantly. Their advantages in capital flows enable them to earn substantial fees bridging traditional finance and on-chain activity.
Noelle: Tokenized money market funds could be the biggest winners. Funds could be intelligently routed between payment accounts and tokenized money funds, enabling “smart treasury management.”
Cosmo: DeFi will be the greatest beneficiary. The on-chain nature of stablecoins will channel massive capital into various DeFi protocols. Users will naturally opt for innovative on-chain services. Regional banks may be the biggest losers, accelerating their long-term decline.
Ram: What about intermediaries? Another type of intermediary is at risk: investment banks. As tokenization expands, their traditional business models will come under pressure.
Cosmo: Capitalism always trends toward lower transaction costs and greater consumer welfare. Ram hits the nail on the head: crypto technology and on-chain infrastructure are reshaping capital markets, and we may be witnessing the dawn of this transformation.
Are Regional Banks on the Brink of Collapse?
Steve: With limited resources, should regional banks fully commit to stablecoin competition, or focus on broader blockchain applications? Are regional banks on the brink of collapse?
Ram: Regional banks lack technical capabilities and must rely on infrastructure providers like FIS and Jack Hunter for generic stablecoin solutions—this actually reinforces the dominance of large banks. Infrastructure players like Paxos are emerging as potential winners. They’re developing stablecoins for platforms like Robinhood and Kraken, replicating the distribution network Circle built via Coinbase.
This validates the “picks and shovels” theory: just as tool suppliers profited most during gold rushes, infrastructure providers (like Paxos) offering technical solutions to trading platforms may prove more resilient than stablecoin issuers during the stablecoin boom.
Steve: Are you referring to Paxos’ previous regulatory issues with Binance over BUSD?
Ram: Specifically, USDG is the stablecoin token they are currently issuing.
Noelle: Wallet providers are poised for significant opportunities. A core user pain point is interoperability among different stablecoins—precisely the gap wallet design can address.
What Does Ethereum’s Latest Rebound Mean?
Steve: How do you all view Ethereum’s sharp rally?
Cosmo: The ETH/BTC ratio nearly doubled in two months, reflecting a major shift in market expectations. Large-scale buying by digital asset custodians was the main driver, based on the logic that Ethereum will become the foundational layer for the stablecoin ecosystem.
Steve: Ethereum is still scaling—what does this mean for listeners evaluating different ETH investment vehicles, such as leveraged ETFs versus crypto asset managers?
Cosmo: While core issues like Ethereum’s economic model persist, several key changes are underway:
1. Organizational Culture Reform
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Long-standing efficiency problems at the Ethereum Foundation are changing
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Tomas, the new director, has driven significant cultural transformation
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Engagement models with VCs, DeFi protocols, and traditional financial institutions have fundamentally shifted
2. Improved Regulatory Environment
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Stablecoin legislation brings industry certainty
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Milestones like Circle’s IPO enhance credibility for the asset class
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Ethereum’s ability to capture value as underlying infrastructure is strengthening
These changes represent real fundamental improvements. The positive feedback loop currently unfolding in the Ethereum ecosystem is a classic sign of qualitative fundamental change.
Noelle: There remains a knowledge gap in crypto. When policy becomes news, new investors start paying attention—meaning the market hasn’t priced things in yet. The pace of advancing national debt allocation strategies also hasn’t been fully digested.
Ram: This involves both policy direction and individual influence. Stablecoin policy is driving structural change, greatly benefiting Ethereum.
There’s an interesting paradox in market mechanics: the more decentralized the system, the more it needs centralized market leadership. Ethereum’s current lack of market visibility is tied to Vitalik’s relatively low public profile. In contrast, the Solana camp—figures like Kyle Samani—understands meme propagation well.
Steve: How will this ETH cycle end? Bubble signs are evident, and FOMO is spreading. How should investors respond?
Cosmo: The key question is how to define “the others” in crypto markets. Native crypto capital is already fully deployed. Traditional finance capital is entering slowly but showing signs. This keeps me confident in holding, though the true wave of allocations is still ahead.
What Is the Essence Behind the Surge of Digital Asset Finance Companies?
Steve: As head of Pantera’s crypto asset management, can you share your market observations?
Cosmo: We focus on innovative projects. Take DFTV, a U.S. Treasury company on Solana—it quickly gained market validation, prompting institutions like Tether and Cantor to launch similar products. This sector is experiencing explosive growth.
While the industry will go through winnowing, we continue increasing investments. Witnessing the birth of an entirely new category of companies is a rare investment opportunity.
Steve: How do you identify truly high-quality investment targets? When reviewing numerous funding proposals, what key factors guide your decisions?
Cosmo: Business models must first pass sustainability tests. The market now shows clear homogenization, and the industry is undergoing commoditization.
Success hinges on economies of scale, requiring the token itself to have:
1) Sufficiently large market cap (typically top 10–15)
2) Mainstream market recognition
3) Clear value proposition
Execution capability is decisive. Teams need both native crypto marketing skills and proficiency in traditional financial tools.
Ram: As cross-asset investors, we’ve noticed signs of market fatigue. Seasonality in crypto is particularly pronounced, and next month coincides with Bitcoin’s historically weak cycle.
Digital asset prices depend more on market momentum than fundamentals. The current self-reinforcing “ramjet engine” mechanism of rising prices is weakening, signaling a potential turning point for momentum-driven rallies.
(Note: The “ramjet engine” effect refers to the self-reinforcing mechanism of upward price trends.)
Will the Crypto IPO Boom Match Early Successes?
Noelle: Several crypto giants have recently filed for IPOs. Does this suggest market热度 will cool in the second half compared to the first?
Ram: The trend of surging crypto asset management firms continues. But as similar projects multiply, market attention is fragmenting, making it harder for investors to focus on industry leaders.
Noelle: The clustering of IPOs by BitGo, Grayscale, Bullish, and others is noteworthy. How long will this enthusiasm last?
Ram: Investor interest remains, but valuation disparities are stark. Some private projects are valued at just 35% of their listed peers, while Coinbase trades at a 60x P/E ratio. More IPOs are expected in Q4.
Noelle: After inflated valuations in 2021, VC funding dried up abruptly. Cosmo, have you seen signs of VC activity recovering?
Cosmo: Market capital is polarized. Coinbase’s 60x P/E benchmark makes pre-IPO rounds more attractive. Seed-stage investments remain active, but Series A–C rounds are relatively quiet.
Steve: Despite optimistic narratives, why is venture capital activity still lagging?
Cosmo: Public markets inherently accommodate many “qualified” firms. In asset management, for instance, portfolios naturally include multiple crypto exchanges—only their weights differ.
How Trump’s Threat to Fire Powell Shakes Macro Sentiment
Steve: Noelle, what are your thoughts on Trump potentially firing Powell? With earnings season approaching, could you briefly share your focus areas?
Noelle: Current macro data meets expectations, providing little justification for rate cuts. This week, housing data is key.
Tariff impacts are visible, with prices rising sharply for affected goods. Trump’s threat to fire Powell is concerning—it has already materially undermined the Fed’s independence.
Erosion of Fed independence will worsen long-term inflation. Rate cuts this year are essentially off the table. Powell must defend policy independence.
Steve: Even if Trump replaces Fed governors, will new appointees comply with presidential wishes? Will other members uphold independence?
Noelle: Fed policy depends on collective decision-making. The current FOMC median view is hawkish. Trump can replace at most two seats. The key is the Fed’s tradition of independence—members will resist political pressure.
We must distinguish inflation drivers: tariff shocks are one-off events; the real risk lies in fiscal imbalances.
Steve: The China-EU summit this week, von der Leyen visiting China next week. If exports to the U.S. are blocked, Beijing might redirect dumping to Europe. What are your expectations?
Noelle: A meeting originally set to be hosted by the EU was forced to change due to China’s counter-invitation, compressed into a single day, leaving the European delegation at a disadvantage.
Tensions stem from recent inappropriate EU statements on China, exposing strategic vulnerabilities. Europe’s economic fragility is increasingly evident.
Final Segment: Share Your View
Steve: You all know I like to ask each guest to share a contrarian insight they’re eager to spark debate on Twitter.
Ram: Newbank is an interesting case. As amnesty negotiations progress, tariffs previously imposed over treatment of Brazil’s former prime minister may ease. I believe there’s investment potential in Brazil’s market—Newbank is worth watching.
Cosmo: The impact of Coinbase’s April inclusion in the S&P 500 index is underestimated. This forces global asset managers to reevaluate digital asset allocations—most institutions have chosen overweight positions so far.
Noelle: I’ll focus on Hong Kong’s Stablecoin Bill. Effective August 1, it may introduce HKD- or CNY-pegged stablecoins. Given China’s push for cross-border digital yuan payments and non-dollar trade expansion, this development deserves attention.
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