Probability of Musk founding a party surges to 17%, with $400 million bet on "American Party"
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Probability of Musk founding a party surges to 17%, with $400 million bet on "American Party"
Is his "American Party" idea a sudden whim or a carefully considered strategy?
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsWill Elon Musk launch a new political party—the "American Party"—in 2025? This bold idea has sparked heated debate in the cryptocurrency betting market Polymarket, where the odds have surged to 17%! Meanwhile, Musk's public feud with Donald Trump continues to escalate, sending Tesla's stock into turbulence. What’s really behind this story? Let’s dive in!
Musk’s Party Formation Odds Soar as Polymarket and X Join Forces
According to the latest data from decentralized prediction market Polymarket, the probability of Musk launching a new political party in 2025 has skyrocketed from 7% in June to 17%, rising another 2% within the past 24 hours. Behind this surge in market interest, total wagers have surpassed $416 million! Polymarket has clearly stated that if Musk issues an “explicit” official statement, the market will resolve as “yes.”
Even more notably, Musk’s X platform recently announced an official partnership with Polymarket, making it X’s official prediction market partner. This powerful collaboration integrates Polymarket’s predictive data with real-time dynamics on X, offering users sharper trend insights—and further fueling speculation about Musk potentially forming a political party.
Quick Fact:
Polymarket is a blockchain-based prediction market platform where users can bet cryptocurrency on future events. However, due to regulatory restrictions, U.S. residents are currently unable to participate.
Musk and Trump Clash Publicly—Party Plans Emerge
The spark for this intense discussion lies in the escalating public conflict between Elon Musk and former U.S. President Donald Trump.
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Origin: Musk accused the Trump administration of withholding documents related to Jeffrey Epstein, triggering widespread controversy.
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Trump strikes back: Trump publicly expressed “disappointment” in Musk, calling him “crazy,” and threatened to cancel federal contracts and subsidies for Musk’s companies.
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Musk fires back: Musk not only criticized Trump’s tariff policies for potentially “triggering a U.S. economic recession,” but also reshared a post stating “Trump should be impeached,” intensifying the confrontation.
Amid this escalating war of words, Musk launched a striking poll on X: “Is it time to create a new party in America representing the 80% moderate majority?”
The results were dramatic: over 5.63 million users participated, with 80.4% voting in favor and only 19.6% opposed. Musk promptly reshared the outcome, announcing the new party would be named “The America Party,” declaring: “The people have spoken—this is destiny!”
Tesla Stock Rollercoaster—Markets React Strongly
The dispute between Musk and Trump hasn’t just ignited public discourse—it’s directly shaken financial markets.
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June 5: Tesla’s stock plummeted up to 18% amid the escalating feud, closing down 14%. The company lost approximately $153 billion in market value, marking its largest single-day drop in nearly three months.
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June 6: Tesla shares rebounded 4.3% during early U.S. trading, though they failed to fully recover the previous day’s losses.
This turmoil has left investors uncertain about Musk’s business empire and political ambitions, adding even greater drama to the potential launch of the “American Party.”
The Vision of the “American Party”: Representing the 80% Moderate Majority?
Musk’s vision for the “American Party” centers on representing the “middle 80%,” aiming to break the traditional two-party dominance in American politics. This idea has triggered wide-ranging debate:
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Supporters argue: Musk’s influence and resources could help build a new party rooted in rationality, science, and innovation, attracting moderate voters disillusioned with conventional politics.
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Critics question: Establishing a political party requires massive organizational infrastructure and funding. Musk’s controversial statements and ongoing clash with Trump may weaken his political appeal.
Regardless, Musk’s “American Party” concept has undoubtedly dropped a bombshell on the U.S. political landscape.
Will Musk Take the First Step Toward Founding a Party?
Although a brief signal of “reconciliation” emerged between Musk and Trump late on the 5th, Trump doubled down the next day by again calling Musk “crazy,” leaving their relationship tense. Will Musk’s party proposal evolve from a viral X poll into reality? The 17% probability on Polymarket might just be the beginning.
In the meantime, the partnership between X and Polymarket will provide us with real-time data to track how this situation unfolds. Whether Musk doubles down on attacking Trump or begins formal preparations for the “American Party,” his next move will be a global focal point in 2025.
Conclusion
From tech titan to potential political newcomer, every step Elon Musk takes captures global attention. Is his “American Party” idea a spontaneous whim or a carefully calculated strategy? Only time will tell!
What do you think?
Do you believe Elon Musk will actually launch the “American Party” in 2025? Share your thoughts in the comments!
Would you support Musk starting a political party?
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