A Trader's Reflections on Growth
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A Trader's Reflections on Growth
"TMMP will be a relatively slow but quite effective bull-bear divider; currently, this level is around 67,000."
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsHost: Alex, Research Partner at Mint Ventures
Guest: Colin, Independent Trader & On-Chain Data Researcher
Hello everyone, welcome to WEB3 Mint To Be, brought to you by Mint Ventures. Here, we continuously question and deeply reflect, aiming to clarify facts, understand realities, and seek consensus within the WEB3 world. We aim to demystify the logic behind trending topics, offer insights beyond surface-level events, and introduce diverse perspectives.
Disclaimer: The content discussed in this podcast does not represent the views of the institutions affiliated with the guests, and any projects mentioned do not constitute investment advice.
Career Path and Current Investment Instruments
Alex: Today, we're excited to have Colin back on the show—someone who previously joined us and shared valuable insights on on-chain data analysis methodology, which was very well received. Today, we’ll dive into a broader topic: trading. I’ve been following Colin’s account closely—he trades across a wide range of markets, including U.S. equities and crypto.
He's had several impressive moves recently—for example, he started turning bearish on BTC early, around $90,000–$100,000, well before Bitcoin's sharp decline. He also exited U.S. equities in Q4 last year and re-entered during recent panic lows. Colin consistently shares his trading thoughts on social media, and I've always found them insightful. That’s why we’re thrilled to have him back today. For those tuning in for the first time, Colin, could you please introduce yourself?
Colin: Hi everyone, I’m Colin. I run a Twitter account called Mr. Bag. Really happy to be invited back to share my thoughts again. I'm currently a full-time trader. My two main areas of expertise are on-chain data analysis—which helps me assess major cycles in BTC—and technical analysis, which is more complex and something I'm constantly refining. Glad to be here once more to share my perspective.
Alex: Welcome back, Colin. For listeners interested in your earlier discussion on on-chain analysis, that episode contains some excellent insights, many of which have since been validated. Let’s move to today’s focus. You mentioned you're now a full-time trader—did you start in finance, or was this a gradual transition?
Colin: That’s an interesting question. I should emphasize—I’m just an old "degen" who happened to capture a significant portion of this era’s upside. If it weren’t for the 2020 pandemic and the subsequent massive liquidity injections, my current outcome might be completely different. So really, I’m just a case of survivorship bias.
Did I start in finance? No. But I studied business in university and picked up some basic textbook-level financial knowledge. However, universities don’t teach you how to trade stocks or crypto. Back then, I had very little money—less than $10,000 in savings. Due to family issues, my relationship with my family was strained. As a student, my only goal was to achieve financial independence quickly and leave that environment. My business studies gave me a basic understanding of what markets exist and their general logic. One key insight I gained early: doubling your performance in financial markets is extremely difficult. Take Warren Buffett—over nearly 60 years, his average annual return is only about 20%. Achieving 100% in a single year is incredibly hard. I recognized this early on.
With just a few thousand dollars in savings, if I didn’t work, I’d run out in a few months. My thinking was: even if I doubled that amount, I’d only make a few thousand. So my goal was clear—get a job. I did reasonably well academically, so my primary income came from tutoring, mostly math. At my peak, I taught 11 private students per week. I also worked part-time at a convenience store and took on odd jobs like handing out flyers or administrative tasks at tutoring centers. Eventually, I focused almost entirely on tutoring because it offered much higher hourly pay.
Saving involved both increasing income and cutting expenses. On the expense side, I lived quite frugally—cutting nearly all entertainment spending, limiting costs to essentials like food and phone bills. I used to smoke heavily; aside from food and basic needs, most of my money went to cigarettes, while everything else went into savings. I drastically reduced my sleep, using the extra time to study. Since I knew nothing initially, I needed to spend enormous time learning anything I could. After gradually building a larger capital base, I realized that deploying this capital in markets might help me reach my goals faster. That was the key transitional moment for me.
In terms of investment instruments, for 2025, it’s definitely Bitcoin, followed by Ethereum. Regarding U.S. equities, as Alex mentioned, I’m not actively trading them—I’m doing index investing. Index investing is straightforward: a passive strategy targeting market beta returns, not alpha. I don’t expect to extract much alpha from U.S. equities because the market is highly efficient and massive. Alpha extraction here is extremely difficult. That’s why I focus my alpha-seeking efforts on crypto. My U.S. equity exposure is purely passive indexing. Last year’s Q4 to this year’s Q1 exit from equities was a rare tactical move—a low-probability opportunity that I luckily avoided. For index investing, the best strategy is simply buy and hold.
Back to crypto: in 2025, I haven’t been paying much attention to altcoins. In 2024, when the market was strong, I spent considerable time analyzing altcoins—projects, trends, sectors. Early last year, restaking was hot—EtherFi launched on Binance around February or March. New listings performed well, rising sharply upon launch. I’d research such projects—if I saw one listing soon, I’d buy immediately at open. Since I couldn’t do angel investing, I’d jump in at secondary market launch. Liquidity was abundant, and people were eager to buy. But the outcome wasn’t good—altcoins entered a bear market. It was essentially a short-lived wave. I probably won’t revisit altcoins in the near-to-medium term unless Bitcoin confirms a cyclical bottom—not just a temporary dip. A minor BTC rebound will lift alts too, but I’m not chasing those short-term moves. I want higher-conviction plays. So for 2025, I’m primarily focused on Bitcoin. Ethereum has some specific trading strategies, but they trigger infrequently, so I’m still waiting.
Key Elements of a Mature Trader’s Framework
Alex: Got it. You’ve explained this thoroughly. Colin started learning about investing and business around 2020, gradually transitioning into a full-time trader over four to five years. During the capital-building phase, his work intensity was immense. In your view, what should a mature trader’s framework include? Things like investment philosophy, technical knowledge, psychological mindset—what are the essential components?
Colin: I won’t claim my answer is definitive, but based on my experience, the most important framework consists of three parts—possibly different from what most people assume.
The first component—whether asked by friends or people on Twitter or Telegram—is goal management. Once you enter the market, this is crucial: know exactly why you’re here. Most people say “to make money,” but that’s insufficient. The next question is: how much? I always ask this. Many say “as much as possible.” But if that’s truly your only goal, it can lead to problems. For example, suppose your goal is to turn $10 into $10 million in a week. Sounds amazing—but to achieve that, you’d need a 100,000x return in seven days. You shouldn’t be in financial markets for that. I won’t judge the goal itself, but such outcomes aren’t feasible here—the odds are infinitesimal. Your only realistic path would be buying lottery tickets. Not Bitcoin, not Ethereum, not even meme coins on-chain—they won’t deliver 100,000x in a week. This is goal management. Without a clear profit target and understanding which market can realistically fulfill it, you’ll drift—jumping into BTC opportunities, on-chain plays, arbitrage, launchpads—everything. But without clarity on your objective, you’ll miss what you should actually focus on. Most want quick profits—especially to grow small capital fast.
Here’s the issue: the higher your expected return, the lower your strategy’s win rate typically is. You’ll face repeated failures, and many feel mentally damaged. “Am I really this bad? Why can’t I win?” But this is normal—when targeting extreme profits, low win rates are inevitable. Many fail because they never set proper initial goals, leading to constant frustration. So I believe the first pillar must be goal management. There’s a common baseline goal in trading: beat the market. If you’re trading U.S. equities, your benchmark is likely the S&P 500—market beta. In crypto, it’s beating Bitcoin’s performance. If BTC returned X% in 2024 and your strategy underperformed holding BTC, you’d have been better off just holding beta for solid returns. That’s a widely accepted baseline objective.
The second component, in my view, is mindset—not technical skills, which come last. Many traders are heavily influenced by psychology. Consider the German investor André Kostolany, a figure comparable to Buffett, though from a different era. He once said something profound: speculation isn’t 2+2=4, but 2+2=5–1. Though 5–1 equals 4, he stresses it’s 5–1, not 4. His point: even if you’re brilliant and always right in analysis, the market won’t let you execute smoothly. Say you go long BTC—it might slowly shake you out before surging. By then, your position may already be liquidated.
Even with correct analysis, the market makes holding uncomfortable—that’s the 5–1 concept. It goes to 5, then subtracts 1, to equal 4. This psychological impact is huge. Psychology teaches that humans inherently dislike uncertainty. Trading is inherently uncertain—otherwise, whoever discovered certainty would become the world’s richest person, surpassing Elon Musk. Everything is uncertain. Thus, trading contradicts human nature. Overcoming this means overcoming your inner self. Those interested should explore behavioral finance—a subject taught in most business schools. It explains why people act irrationally in financial markets. If you can’t manage emotional impacts, your decisions will deviate. Even a profitable trading system can be ruined by emotions.
The third component is your trading system—how you generate returns. I place this third. Some excel at project research, others at technical analysis or high-frequency arbitrage. Regardless of being full-time or not, everyone should have their own logic or system. Let me share an interesting example: a reader messaged me saying investment is professional work, so professionals should handle it. His approach? Follow popular influencers across platforms, aggregate their positions, and take the majority-directional trade. He asked if this was valid. My answer: absolutely not.
First, I can’t verify whether any influencer—including myself or others with millions of followers—is actually skilled. Second, even if they are, without understanding their logic, you can’t tell if profits come from skill or luck, or losses from poor execution or bad luck. This creates a serious problem: you can’t review your trades. You won’t know if a winning trade was replicable, or what to avoid next time after a loss. Investing is professional, yes—but for long-term profitability, you must become the professional, not follow many professionals. Otherwise, noise overwhelms you, and your mind explodes.
These are the three pillars I consider most important: trading system, mindset, and goal management.
Alex: Understood. Let’s explore goal management further. Is it composed of two steps? First, clearly defining your desired financial return range, then identifying suitable markets. For instance, if Buffett—an elite investor—averages ~20% annually, and you aim for 100%, you shouldn’t pursue that in U.S. equities. Instead, you’d look to emerging areas like Bitcoin. If I prefer lower drawdowns, smaller volatility, and am fine with 10% annual returns, targeting U.S. equities might suffice. Is that accurate?
Colin: Yes—first, clearly understand your realistic capabilities. Historically, passive exposure to U.S. equity beta has averaged around 10% annually. Buffett achieved 20%, outperforming the market over 60 years—hence “Oracle of Omaha.” If I’m less skilled, simply buying U.S. equity beta would historically yield ~10% average annual returns. But if your goal is 100%, achieving that via U.S. equity beta is nearly impossible—so you must look elsewhere. Another key point: be rational in goal-setting. Don’t assume you’re a trading genius. Aiming for 200,000% annual return is practically impossible.
I believe geniuses exist, but betting you’re one has near-zero probability—similar to buying a lottery ticket. I prefer rational assessments. Take Bitcoin: examine its 2021–2024 annualized return. From the ~$69,000 peak to today’s ~$80,000+, the return looks poor. But extend the timeframe. Compare yourself to Bitcoin, but always set goals rationally. Only with a clear target can you build strategies and select appropriate markets. Otherwise, trying to earn everything often results in earning nothing—that’s my bias.
Personal Investment Framework
Alex: Great. Building on goal-setting, mindset management, etc., could you walk us through your personal trading and investment framework—how it’s structured today?
Colin: Sure. Mine is quite simple. I divide my total assets into two buckets: investment and trading. The investment portion refers to U.S. equities—very low frequency. Moves like topping out happen maybe once every few years; I don’t know when the next one will be. The trading portion is primarily allocated to crypto markets—focused on Bitcoin and select other coins, not equities. Within crypto, I split funds into two: spot and futures. A small portion goes into more complex strategies, but it’s minor and complicated, so I’ll skip it.
Spot positions are larger, with infrequent triggers—mainly for catching bottoms and tops. The decision-making is relatively simple—if you heard our previous episode, it’s driven primarily by on-chain data, supplemented by macro conditions. When signals trigger, I assess whether to gradually accumulate or distribute. Sounds simple, but actual judgment involves deep analysis and data. The second part is futures—allocated less capital due to leverage, which increases capital efficiency. Futures serve two purposes. First, capturing small-scale swing opportunities using pure technical analysis. Last week, I shared live trades on Twitter, marking entries on price charts—purely technical.
The second use, as mentioned earlier, is refining entry points. Unlike swing trading, this applies when, for example, in early 2024, altcoin momentum was strong. I researched a project—PYTH, an oracle provider—and liked it. I used chart analysis to identify optimal entry levels. Sometimes, after thorough research, I find a great project already pumped. If I believe it’ll rise further but don’t want to chase, risking a pullback, I use technical frameworks to plan risk-reward-appropriate entries. If no favorable setup appears, I miss it—that’s fine. I avoid excessive risk because short-to-medium-term plays shouldn’t be held long-term; doing so harms capital efficiency.
How did I arrive at this current stage? It’s an ongoing process. I keep refining—adopting anything logical and useful to improve my system. A clear example: each Bitcoin cycle behaves uniquely, though this one differs more noticeably. Simply applying patterns from 2021’s double top, 2017, or 2013 to 2025 would be risky. This cycle saw massive accumulation at the bottom—a phenomenon unseen before. In such cases, I conduct multi-angle investigations, combining external views with my analysis. Otherwise, I’d panic thinking, “This never happened before.”
This continuous refinement is key. While studying new phenomena, I learn new things or review others’ perspectives—this is the improvement process. Initially, I knew nothing—a blank slate. So early on, I tried to learn everything, avoiding prejudice against any school of thought. I observed intellectual elitism—A school says B is useless, B says C is trash. Avoid such biases. My advice: listen to everything, then critically evaluate effectiveness through your own reasoning. Don’t rely solely on historical patterns (induction). Use deduction—test logical consistency—then gradually filter out ineffective concepts, keeping only what truly works.
Common Traits Among Excellent Traders
Alex: Understood. Based on your four to five years of trading experience—and observing countless other traders—do you think great traders are born, or can ordinary people develop into skilled ones? From your observations, what common traits or abilities do top traders share? Which skills require cultivation?
Colin: I hesitate to label traders as “good” or “bad”—I don’t feel qualified, as I’m still learning. Personally, I don’t believe anyone is born suited for trading. My view: just adapting to this market—let alone mastering it—already puts you ahead of most. The market is profoundly counterintuitive. Events like extreme volatility or manipulative schemes are rarely seen in everyday life. Adapting to this gives you a significant edge.
So I don’t believe anyone is naturally a good trader. The market is somewhat “malevolent,” while society typically promotes harmony—there’s inherent conflict. Not that the market is evil, but its dynamics challenge newcomers. As for innate vs. cultivated ability, I believe most skills are trainable. Even with natural advantages, postnatal practice is essential. Earlier, I mentioned mindset—one friend is remarkably emotionally insensitive, barely showing joy, anger, or sorrow. I’m unsure if this is innate, but if so, it gives them a strong edge. Emotional stability aids consistent profitability. Emotional reactivity makes direct market participation ill-advised. This can be trained, but entering unprepared is dangerous.
In terms of innate traits, I believe stable profitability requires three key personality characteristics: humility, rationality, and discipline. Humility may seem counterintuitive—not about interpersonal manners, but market humility: respect for the market. If someone claims to “control the market,” they clearly don’t understand themselves. No one controls the market. It’s always right, capable of unexpected moves and black swan events. We must remain humble. After every profit, ask: was it luck, being in the right place, or genuine skill? After losses, reflect—don’t blame the market or others, or call it “bad luck.” Stay humble. Ask: can I avoid similar mistakes next time?
Second is rationality—most critical. Our goal is profit, so every decision must align objectively, avoiding emotional trading. Losing rationality turns you into a gambler—the market becomes your casino, a venue for emotional release. I recall an amateur trader, a regular employee, who opened a losing trade before work. That loss affected his entire day—he rode his bike instead of Uber, distracted all day. That night, he thought, “No, I must trade again tonight to recover morning losses.” From that second trade onward, his purpose diverged. You shouldn’t trade just to recover prior losses. Each trade is independent. Your sole goal is profit. Introducing emotions or external factors turns the market into a casino—a way to satisfy不甘心 or gambling urges. This severely undermines profit objectives.
Third is discipline. Without it, even if I gave you a flawless, highly profitable trading system, your own actions could ruin it, leading to losses. These three traits—humility, rationality, discipline—are trainable. Humility involves mental adjustment; rationality is self-explanatory; discipline ensures consistency. Simpler still: all tie back to rationality. With sufficient rationality, you realize the market can’t be controlled, fostering humility. Rationality also reveals that undisciplined trading inevitably leads to losses later.
Alex: Understood. You repeatedly emphasized reflecting after every trade—success or failure—summarizing what went well, attributing correctly, and applying lessons forward. Do you maintain daily trading journals or notes? I know some traders do this—do you see value in the habit? How might one implement it effectively?
Colin: Interesting question. Early on, I tried documenting every trade detail. It was a unique learning method—I believe it has some value. I don’t do it now—not entirely, anyway. I record only exceptional observations: unusual patterns or phenomena worth noting. My memory isn’t perfect, so I jot them down, review the next day, then again later. I check whether these observations are later validated by the market. If yes, I investigate deeper. If not—if two validations succeed but the third fails—I may conclude it was just luck. So I log special cases, not full trade records. I experimented with trading journals early, but later grew lazy. Now, most processes are internalized—few complex operations. I only resume journaling when developing new strategies or exploring new domains. Still, I acknowledge its usefulness—it helps those unclear about their direction document thoughts and actions for later review. Its retrospective function remains valuable.
Three Memorable Trading Experiences
Alex: Great. Could you share three of your most memorable trading experiences since starting your trading journey—and what you learned from each?
Colin: Many have asked this. Whenever posed, I recall the same vivid experience. Back when I was working odd jobs to save money, I compressed sleep to study. I used small capital to test ideas, train intuition, and gauge waters—just basic knowledge, pure degen mindset. I distinctly remember starting with $2,000 in a futures account trading BTC. Within two weeks, I turned it into $6,000—tripling my capital. Buffett averages ~20% annually—I achieved 200% in two weeks. I felt euphoric—money seemed easy to make. Friends said “reward yourself when you profit,” so I bought a black jacket online—only $20—to celebrate.
Two days later, I lost everything—$6,000 down to $1,700, below my initial capital. One futures trade wiped out $4,300. I didn’t even understand risk management. I manually closed the position, staring at the screen for five minutes, mentally frozen—“What am I doing? Where did the money go?” Ironically, the jacket hadn’t arrived yet—my celebration never happened. It still hangs in my closet. That trade taught me one vital lesson: never remove your stop-loss order before executing a trade. If you entertain that thought, don’t trade at all.
I had set a stop-loss, but as price neared it, I moved it further, refusing to accept defeat. It nearly hit again—I moved it once more. Ultimately, a $200–$300 loss ballooned to $4,300. The pain was excruciating—I remember the number clearly. Since then, I’ve never removed a stop-loss. The memory is too searing—I felt like a clown, clueless. That experience shaped me.
My second story is more positive. I once studied technical analysis, testing ideas with small capital. One day, I analyzed OP and DAR, drew predicted charts on TradingView, and showed a friend my rationale—assume drop to A, rally to B, then fall to C. Within a week, it played out exactly. I felt immense satisfaction—validating a newly learned skill. Price hugged my lines perfectly—even timing matched, despite guessing. I proudly showed my friend: “See? What I learned works!” By then, I’d moved past beginner stages, with steadier mindset. Beyond joy, I asked: why could I predict this? I reviewed, seeking similar patterns across BTC and altcoins. But emphasize: prediction isn’t crucial. Trading decisions shouldn’t rely on predictions. Prediction ≠ decision. Predict if you like, feel happy if right, shrug if wrong—but never let prediction influence your decision-making. That’s forbidden. Markets cannot be predicted.
My third story is from 2024—my largest losing trade. I briefly shared it on Twitter; now I’ll complete it. In October 2023, I held substantial BTC. I believed a bull market was nearing launch, despite weak sentiment. I decided to go long ETH/BTC ratio—using spot: converting part of my BTC holdings to ETH, running grid bots to earn yield during consolidation, while holding long-term. Essentially replacing pure BTC holding. Holding BTC captures beta; I wanted extra alpha via ETH. Grid bots performed well from Oct 2023 to June 2024—price oscillated within a broad range. With Ethereum ETF speculation, I grew overly optimistic, neglecting tail risks.
Then, on August 5, 2024, both crypto and equities crashed. BTC spiked down to $49,000; ETH fell harder—I recall $2,100. That day, ETH dropped far more than BTC, causing the ratio to collapse. My floating loss was terrifying—my average entry wasn’t that low, though grid profits helped reduce cost basis. From late 2023’s opening average of ~0.052, mid-cycle adjustments and grid gains brought it to ~0.045. From August 5 onward, it became a nightmare—until Trump’s election, the ratio plunged to 0.03. Just from ratio movement, I lost over 30%—excruciating pain.
I had no intention to stop loss—I waited for the next surge. Then prices rose. Trump won. Ratio rebounded to ~0.04. I finally exited, accepting the loss. From 0.045 to 0.04 is ~10% loss—but my position was large, so it hurt. Beyond BTC spot loss, I missed significant opportunity cost—BTC kept rising afterward, which I failed to capture. This significantly damaged my 2024 performance.
Looking back, I learned something new: in crypto, never trust any asset besides Bitcoin. I treated BTC and ETH as peers—clearly mistaken. Today, the ratio has fallen below 0.018. I exited at 0.04—now it’s 0.018, nearly halved again. Scary. A silver lining: I topped out my ETH spot in December 2023, selling everything at $4,000. That’s one bittersweet consolation.
Three Pieces of Advice to My Younger Self
Alex: These three cases are fascinating—both successes and lessons. If you could time travel to the year you began learning trading, and give your younger self three pieces of advice—guaranteed to be heeded—what would they be? (Not specific investment tips like “buy X.”)
Colin: First: carefully choose learning resources. I bought many books—some worthless. Perhaps every book has value, but some contain flawed or incorrect concepts not accepted by the market. I didn’t know—didn’t consult others or verify online. After reading and testing, I realized they weren’t practical—wasted much time.
I believe most theories have value—but only if correct and market-validated. Methods like pure historical induction often fail in markets. My first advice: stop reading random books. Consult experienced professionals—ask which books are worth reading. Today, I’d recommend textbooks—understand the fundamental mechanics of financial markets. University business school finance textbooks contain real substance—most valuable reads.
Second: always use stop-losses—never remove them. This ties back to my first story—the jacket still hangs there, reminding me each time. Never delete a pre-set stop-loss—keep it active. It’s a lifeline. Skipping it might turn a 2% loss into 10%. Severe consequence. Alex suggested my younger self would listen, but I doubt it. I knew about stop-losses, set them—but couldn’t follow through. Too stubborn. One painful experience leaves far deeper impression than 100 lectures. I once heard: “People don’t learn from teaching—only from experience.” That’s me.
Third: remember your original purpose—don’t harm your closest relationships. This show emphasizes making money. But why? To improve life quality—eat better, dress better, live better. Money is a means, not the end. If pursuing money damages family, partners, or mental health, you’ve strayed from your original intent. I fell into this trap—over-focused, overly aggressive, wanting quick success. I neglected someone important, vented emotions—our relationship ended.
My point: despite losses or setbacks hurting, remember—you entered to improve life. Money is a tool. If the tool disrupts the goal, stop. Given the chance, I’d tell my younger self: don’t be foolish. You’re here to earn money, yes—but to enable a better life, to help loved ones when they struggle, not stand helpless. This may be the most important advice.
Current Views on U.S. Equities and BTC
Alex: Great. One final, concrete question. Last time we discussed on-chain analysis, you were bearish—I recall BTC was still high, around $90k+. Later, it fell to $74k, and many thought the bull run ended, bear market begun. Now we’re in a gray zone—uncertain phase. Regarding current markets—BTC and the highly volatile U.S. equities—what’s your current outlook on equities and BTC? Any recent key trades?
Colin: Starting with U.S. equities. Not simple, but easier to assess within my framework. Trump is an emotionally charged, action-heavy president—causing significant turmoil, not just financially but globally. Recent U.S. equity volatility has been extreme. This week was mild—yesterday’s drop aside. But two to three weeks ago, it was terrifying. You might not see such moves in years of trading. I’m not overly bearish on U.S. equities.
My view: tariffs clearly hurt the economy. The Fed’s biggest challenge is stagflation—stubborn inflation limits rate cuts. As the economy cools, this pressure should transmit to inflation. Once inflation eases, gradual rate cuts can resume. So, despite potential short-term volatility, barring extreme black swans, I remain optimistic on U.S. equities long-term. Open the S&P chart—monthly, weekly—it’s a steady 45-degree upward slope. I believe it can weather any crisis. Short-to-medium-term trading, however, is extremely difficult. Since I’m not focused on equities, I won’t elaborate—would risk sounding presumptuous.
Bitcoin is more complex. As Alex noted, regarding bull-bear transitions, I gradually exited—kept 20% until the end. I finally sold that 20% after price broke below a key on-chain metric: Short-Term Holder Average Cost. That day, it was ~$92,000. After breaking, price fell rapidly. As of two days ago, it’s ~$92,400—still nearby.
I view this line as critical for any major upward move. Though price rose from ~$74k–$75k to ~$87k–$88k—a significant move—I believe crossing the short-term holder average cost is essential for further upside. The logic is simple: much market volatility stems from short-term holders. When price reaches their average cost, “relief selling” may occur—trapped holders exiting—potentially triggering concerning sell pressure.
The second metric I haven’t shared before is TMMP (True Market Mean Price)—another indicator from the Coin Time Price framework. I can’t explain it fully here, but briefly: historically, Bitcoin price spends nearly equal time above and below this line—making it a slow but effective bull-bear divider. Currently, it’s around $67,000—I believe.
During my topping analysis, I didn’t reference this line—it would’ve been too slow. But if price keeps consolidating, this could become the true bull-bear boundary. Throughout this bull run, price hasn’t dipped below TMMP—staying above ~$60k+—never falling this low. Another key factor: Bitcoin’s current distribution. Two to three months ago, ~4.5 million BTC were trapped between $87k–$110k. After months, much has shifted to new ranges. Now, congestion is ~$81k–$85k—with ~1–2 million BTC relocated.
Optimistically, the fact that price held firm while absorbing so many sells suggests strong consensus around $81k–$85k—many willing to buy there. But caution remains: these new buyers replaced sellers from higher up—~$93k+. Those sellers, now at a loss, represent existing sell-side pressure. Their accelerated selling, if unmatched by buying, could push price lower.
Currently, ~2.9 million BTC remain above $93k (based on my latest weekly report). This feels neutral. But at least, $81k–$85k should provide short-term stickiness. If price rises, it may get pulled back; if it drops moderately, it may slowly recover to $81k–$85k. So this range may be the current battleground.
Price could break below, but absent major negative news, a gradual recovery is possible. Now at ~$88k, this level faces profit-taking pressure from the $81k–$85k zone—since all volume there came from short-term accumulation. How many will become “diamond hands” and hold long-term? Unknown. But as short-term holders, they’ll likely sell to lock in profits. Profit-taking means selling—potentially pushing price back to $81k–$85k.
In my view, breaking below $81k versus above $93k—between the two, I lean slightly bearish. Cyclical-wise—not the four-year cycle, just bull-bear dynamics—if my top call was correct, this may already be the peak of this cycle. A 2021-style double top isn’t impossible—currently somewhat resembling one—but insufficient data supports this yet. Assuming my top call holds, I remain slightly bearish—currently flat. I may consider gradual accumulation near the TMMP bull-bear line (~$60k+) where supply clusters. Or wait for lower levels.
Alex: Understood. You mentioned considering re-entry near the ~$60k+ TMMP zone. Also, you noted ~$92k–$93k—short-term holder average cost—as major resistance. If price rises from $88k and decisively breaks $92k–$93k, would you then go long on the breakout—add positions on the right side?
Colin: Possibly—but this might involve futures, not spot. I’d likely stay flat on spot. Based on data, I doubt that level breaks easily. High trapped supply overlaps precisely with short-term holder average cost. So I’d likely wait for confirmation—say, price holds above for a week, or three to five days without weakness—then combine with technical analysis to decide whether to enter a futures long for a swing trade.
Alex: Today’s conversation with Colin has been incredibly rich—covering his growth as a trader, core trading philosophies, practical experiences, structural market understanding, and tactical logic across different environments. Whether discussing U.S. equity sentiment swings or Bitcoin’s on-chain supply dynamics, I hope everyone gained valuable insights. Huge thanks to Colin for joining us again with such depth and thoughtfulness. We’d love to have you back to continue exploring markets and strategies. Thank you.
Colin: My pleasure. Thank you.
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