How Do Institutional Analysts View the Crypto Market Outlook After Tariff Policy Deals a Heavy Blow?
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How Do Institutional Analysts View the Crypto Market Outlook After Tariff Policy Deals a Heavy Blow?
There are differing opinions; it is recommended to stay steady, observe first, then act.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Asher, Odaily Planet News
The butterfly effect of tariff policies has triggered a storm in the crypto market. At 4 a.m. today, U.S. President Trump officially announced at the White House the imposition of a 10% "minimum base tariff" on the vast majority of imported goods globally, along with higher retaliatory tariffs on dozens of countries and regions, dealing another heavy blow to the cryptocurrency market (for detailed tariff information, refer to: The White House Launches Tariff War 2.0).
According to OKX data, around 4:15 a.m., BTC first rose to 88,500 USD in a "bull trap" move before continuously declining, briefly dropping below 82,500 USD by 8 a.m. (hitting a low of 82,169 USD), with a sharp intraday drop exceeding 5%. As of around 11:30 a.m. (same time reference for all following data), it was trading at approximately 83,600 USD.
Besides BTC, ETH briefly fell from around 1,960 USD to below 1,800 USD, currently hovering at 1,824 USD, down 3.03% over 24 hours; SOL dropped from around 136 USD to below the 117 USD level, now trading at 119 USD, down 4.04% over 24 hours.
In U.S. equities, the three major stock index futures plunged after-hours. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures tumbled 1,007 points (down 2.3%), S&P 500 futures dropped 3.4%, and Nasdaq 100 futures plummeted 4.2%.
Affected by the overall downturn, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies also sharply declined. Data from CoinGecko shows that the total crypto market cap has now fallen below 2.8 trillion USD, down 4% over 24 hours, currently standing at 2.78 trillion USD. Additionally, Alternative data indicates that the Fear & Greed Index dropped from 44 to 25 today, re-entering "extreme fear" territory.
Fear & Greed Index
In derivatives trading, Coinglass data shows that total liquidations across the entire network reached 396 million USD in the past 12 hours. By asset, BTC accounted for 151 million USD in liquidations, while ETH saw 75.25 million USD.
After recovering slightly for two days, will BTC continue to fall again due to the impact of U.S. tariff policy? Is there still hope for altcoins to rebound? Below, Odaily Planet News compiles insights and opinions from industry leaders and institutions regarding this morning's tariff announcement.
What Do Industry Leaders and Institutions Think?
Arthur Hayes: If BTC Holds Above 76,500 USD Until April 15 Tax Day, It Will Be "Out of Danger"
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, commented that the market reacted poorly to "Liberation Day." He stated, "If Bitcoin can hold above the 76,500 USD level between now and U.S. tax day (April 15), then we're out of danger." He also warned investors not to get "cut by volatility."
Analyst Ali Martinez: BTC Now in Key Range Between 84,800 and 86,900 USD
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez noted that following the tariff announcement, BTC is currently within a critical range of 84,800 to 86,900 USD. On the hourly chart, whichever side breaks through or falls below this zone could determine the next major move.
Chris Burniske: No Aggressive Moves for Now; Will Monitor Specific Assets and Look to Add Positions if Market Dips Further
Chris Burniske, partner at Placeholder, said he expects today to be a positive turning point. For now, he won't take aggressive actions—if the market remains within its current range, he'll maintain his holdings. However, if the tariff policy pushes the crypto market lower today, he'll monitor specific assets and look for opportunities to add positions.
Santiment: Crypto Market Shows Weak Reaction to Tariff Policy, Safe-Haven Capital Still Flowing into Gold
Analysts from blockchain analytics platform Santiment said that after Trump announced the new tariffs at the White House, market sentiment quickly intensified. However, the crypto market's performance remained weak. Currently, investors' safe-haven capital is primarily flowing into gold—gold prices have risen 20% over the past three months, breaking above 3,190 USD per ounce—while Bitcoin continues to remain highly correlated with the S&P 500 Index.
On social media, market views are divided: some analysts believe this situation resembles the 2018 trade war-induced market turmoil, which may ultimately benefit the crypto market in the long run. Others argue that the U.S. economic structure cannot withstand high tariffs, potentially leading to even greater market volatility. In the short term, crypto market sentiment remains cautious, and the true market reaction will become clearer after U.S. stock markets open.
Grayscale Research: The Impact of Tariffs on Cryptocurrencies May Already Be "Priced In," Worst-Case Scenario Might Be Behind Us
Zach Pandl, Head of Research at Grayscale Research, said, "The impact of tariffs on cryptocurrencies may already be 'priced in,' and the worst-case scenario might be behind us. I believe tariffs will weaken the dominance of the U.S. dollar, creating space for alternatives including Bitcoin. Prices may dip in the short term, but the first few months of the Trump administration have further strengthened my long-term confidence in Bitcoin as a global monetary asset."
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