ETH Hangzhou On-Site Report: No Hope for New Highs Within 3 Years, See You in the Next Cycle
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ETH Hangzhou On-Site Report: No Hope for New Highs Within 3 Years, See You in the Next Cycle
Some tokens stay young forever, but there will always be young people rushing into the ETH battlefield.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Wenser, Odaily Planet Daily
At the end of Q1 2025, without a doubt, the most disheartened group in the crypto space are the "E Guardians."
On one hand, the ETH/BTC exchange rate has dropped to its lowest level in nearly five years since May 2020, reaching just 0.02193. On the other hand, Vitalik, Ethereum's "soul figure," recently drew confusion and even criticism from parts of the Ethereum community with his bizarre act of imitating cat sounds toward a robotic dog.
Now, during what some call Ethereum's "darkest hour"—with prices falling below $1,800—the "ETH Hangzhou" event is in full swing. Many developers and members of the Ethereum community continue to enthusiastically participate in building the ecosystem in various ways. Odaily Planet Daily attended ETH Hangzhou on-site and spoke with attendees to understand their views on the current state of the Ethereum ecosystem.
When "your position determines your perspective" no longer applies: 50% hold less than 10 ETH, 40% hold less than 100 ETH
During the Demo Day at ETH Hangzhou, Odaily Planet Daily reporter Wenser conducted a small-sample survey among attendees, collecting around 10 responses. The results showed:
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Only one person had completely exited their ETH holdings;
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50% held between 1–10 ETH;
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40% held between 10–100 ETH.
Notably, @Solomon_NAHHH, who had fully liquidated ETH, mentioned having done so over a year ago and now holds part of his portfolio in SUI. @0xBenniee, holding a small amount of ETH, described the Ethereum ecosystem as highly abstract. Among those holding under 100 ETH, @ConstantinGao revealed he holds significant short positions in ETH.
Ethereum Ecosystem Maturity: 70% Believe It Has Reached Middle Age
In this small sample of 10 respondents, there was relative consensus on the maturity stage of the Ethereum ecosystem:
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20% (2 people) believe the Ethereum ecosystem is still in its youth;
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70% (7 people) believe it has entered middle age;
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10% (1 person) believe it has reached old age.
Those in the first group base their view primarily on technical development, arguing that in terms of implementation of technical roadmaps, Ethereum remains in an early phase, with many paths still under exploration. In contrast, the individual who sees Ethereum as entering old age focuses on token economics, suggesting that given ETH’s issuance timeline and lifecycle stage, the ecosystem has become relatively rigid and mature.
Respondents viewing Ethereum as being in middle age emphasize ecosystem development: infrastructure is now relatively complete; beyond DeFi, most other sub-sectors have been disproven to varying degrees; liquidity and major crypto projects still regard Ethereum’s mainnet or EVM environments as the core ecosystem.
Potential for New ETH Price Highs: No Hope Within 3 Years—Wait for the Next Cycle
When asked whether ETH could surpass its previous all-time high of nearly $4,800 within the next 1–2 years, nearly everyone expressed pessimism—including long-time “E Guardians” who joined in 2019 and “ETH ecosystem builders” working on DeFi projects.
Overall, expectations for when a new price peak might occur fall into three categories:
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First category: possibly in 2–3 years. Crypto KOL and Day1Global founder @RubyWang, along with crypto KOL and KiteAI CMO @0xLaughing, believe a new high would depend on novel asset issuance models or entirely new types of assets leading the market.
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Second category: not before 5 years. @Starzq, also from Day1Global, believes ETH alone is unlikely to reach new highs unless driven by BTC liquidity spillover or fringe innovations within the Ethereum ecosystem. @Freya from Zhejiang University Blockchain Association suggests hope may lie in community growth or technological breakthroughs.
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Third category: timing unknown, dependent on application development. @ArtistZhou, @33357xyz, @WONG_SSH, and @0xPhiloA argue that ETH’s price recovery hinges on eliminating L2s that "drain" value from Ethereum, successful implementation of technologies like Based Rollup, and the maturation of applications after washing out NFT, GameFi, and even DeFi speculators who bought at previous highs.
Besides, @Solomon_NAHHH suggested another possibility: if U.S.-listed ETH ETFs were fully liquidated and ownership transferred to investors from Eastern countries, ETH might stand a chance at reaching new highs.
@ConstantinGao, holding large short positions in ETH, pointed out that the current poor price performance stems from the collapse of narratives such as "digital oil" and "world computer." Today, Ethereum has devolved into a blockspace rental business. After L2 scaling solutions emerged, not only has it been drained of activity, but usage costs have further decreased, undermining the market’s recognition of ETH as a store of value. This stands in stark contrast to BTC, which champions the "digital gold" narrative. After abandoning its payment-focused positioning, BTC successfully rebranded itself in the market’s eyes. He added that while he remains bearish on ETH’s price performance in the short term (2–3 years), judging from past internet industry evolution, Ethereum still holds long-term potential. Driven by mature applications, demand for ETH consumption could grow dramatically—from the early dial-up internet era to today’s short-video and live-streaming e-commerce boom. When that happens, ETH’s price may gradually achieve new highs.
Summary: ETH Is Not Irreplaceable, But Still the Main Battlefield of Crypto
Among the many young faces at the event, I saw numerous youths actively participating in Ethereum ecosystem activities. Despite weak price performance, the ecosystem remains highly decentralized, with both seasoned veterans and newcomers continuing to build on Ethereum. As for price, only time will tell.
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