K33 Crypto Briefing: BTC indicators weakening, market may be on the verge of a reversal
TechFlow Selected TechFlow Selected
K33 Crypto Briefing: BTC indicators weakening, market may be on the verge of a reversal
Although the pro-cryptocurrency Trump administration is a positive factor in the long term, market uncertainty remains present, and traders should remain cautious until a clear direction emerges.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Brian McGleenon
Translation: Tim, PANews
Report Overview
-
Bitcoin remains in a low-volatility state, with risk-averse traders suppressing yields, trading volume, and futures premiums. However, K33 Research says this condition usually does not last long.
-
Analyst Vetle Lunde notes that while a crypto-friendly Trump administration is a positive factor for the long term, market uncertainty persists, and traders should remain cautious until a clear direction emerges.
Bitcoin's Low Volatility Persists
According to data from K33 Research, Bitcoin remains in a low-volatility state, posting a modest weekly decline of 2%. Risk-averse traders have driven returns, volatility, and trading volume down to multi-month lows.
Vetle Lunde, Head of Research at K33, pointed out that while a crypto-friendly Trump administration is positive news for Bitcoin and the broader industry in the long run, short-term uncertainty is currently dampening market activity.
"Bitcoin metrics are weakening across the board—trading volumes, yields, options premiums, ETF flows—all returning to levels unseen since before the election. In this lethargic environment, volatility has dropped to multi-month lows," Lunde said in a report on Tuesday.
Lunde emphasized that currently 37% of the top 100 U.S. stocks by market cap exhibit higher monthly volatility than Bitcoin—a level not seen since October 2023. Nevertheless, he urged that such low-volatility periods typically do not last long, and traders should prepare for sudden market shifts.
He added, "The overall risk-off sentiment suggests traders are positioned for downside volatility, while current moderate leverage levels indicate a lower risk of cascading liquidations."
CME Bitcoin Futures Signal Imminent Market Shift
Lunde’s analysis of CME Bitcoin futures shows that the recent futures premium has dropped below 5%, a rare occurrence. Reviewing data from 2021 to 2025, low premiums typically coincide with weak market performance, possibly influenced by the prolonged bear market of 2022.
In futures trading, the basis refers to the price difference between the futures and spot prices of the same asset. When futures prices exceed spot prices, a premium occurs, usually signaling bullish sentiment; when futures prices fall below spot prices (contango), it indicates a downward trend.
He reiterated that Bitcoin tends to perform best when the basis is strong, and urged caution amid the current uncertainty.
Join TechFlow official community to stay tuned
Telegram:https://t.me/TechFlowDaily
X (Twitter):https://x.com/TechFlowPost
X (Twitter) EN:https://x.com/BlockFlow_News
The Block
