Farewell to the Fate of Being a韭菜: A Survival Guide for Ordinary People in the Crypto Market
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Farewell to the Fate of Being a韭菜: A Survival Guide for Ordinary People in the Crypto Market
Money flows to those who are at peace within.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsBy: BITWU.ETH
One month ago, the Trump token $Trump exploded, turning multiple P moonboys into A9 legends with 100x profits; starting yesterday, CZ @cz_binance promoted $TST, reviving the Binance chain with a 1500% surge in one day, allowing many to once again fill their pockets;
Behind this prosperity lies deeper anxiety for more people—the harsh truth being: many actually didn’t achieve results, or even lost money, yet Twitter appears flooded with success stories, further fueling self-doubt;
Innumerable voices cry out to the sky: Could it be I’m truly unsuited for this space?
Over the past month, the most common industry narrative we’ve heard is:
On-chain is the real wealth explosion zone, the best place to make money. If you can't operate on-chain or lack on-chain profit ability, you're a representative of the old-school crypto crowd—destined for elimination and labeled a loser.
I agree with half of this view. Indeed, on-chain is currently the epicenter of concentrated wealth creation. If you have natural talent to thrive on-chain, that’s undoubtedly the optimal opportunity. If your intuition and earning ability aren’t strong, try learning and researching deeply—obsessively, like @haze0x's "GMGN: From 0 to $10 Million Meme Operation Guide."
Link: https://drive.google.com/file/d/11Rk-fr_AAfPSVtV8gCgOpsi2GpNI23uj/view
This kind of material is excellent; after studying it thoroughly and testing with small amounts, you’ll clearly see your talent and capability!
But more likely, through deep research and study, you may realize you’re still not suited for on-chain—does that mean all hope is truly gone?
So, I encourage everyone to thoughtfully consider the following questions:
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Is on-chain really suitable for everyone?
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As an ordinary person genuinely unable to succeed on-chain, how can you create value within the ecosystem?
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Are there universally applicable tracks suitable for people in the space?
1. Actually, I only half-agree with this perspective:
You must diagnose correctly before prescribing treatment—
I fully acknowledge that this wave of on-chain opportunities is indeed a once-in-a-lifetime chance. I deeply admire diligent and courageous friends like @0xSunNFT @yuyue_chris @EnHeng456. I said early on—I'm genuinely happy seeing them earn big. I don’t know if you understand this feeling: the industry continuously generates new opportunities, allowing newcomers to find their footing. Rapid iteration eliminates rigid hierarchies and shows outsiders these opportunities aren’t exclusive to veterans or resource holders. Compared to most WEB2 industries, WEB3 fairness lies here—if you work hard, diligently, and courageously, the opportunity is right before you; this makes more newcomers fall in love with the space;
The other half I disagree with is the idea that lacking on-chain profit ability means elimination as part of the "old generation," with no future. There’s some bias here: first, I believe hope still exists—maintaining a calm mindset and finding your own path, or growing wealth steadily, is also valid. Crypto isn’t just PvP; time can be your ally too—we shouldn’t dismiss this. Second, focusing solely on on-chain profits without considering whether individuals are personally suited for on-chain PvP is flawed. On-chain PvP is extremely difficult and highly dependent on innate talent—not everyone fits. It’s like trading: just because 0.1% get rich doesn’t mean those who don’t understand trading are doomed. WEB3 offers numerous income opportunities. The most important thing—yes, the single most crucial point—is finding what aligns with your talents, personality, and rhythm. That’s what matters!
Therefore, I believe each of us should seriously reflect on where our personality and abilities truly lie, and how our wealth journey should unfold:
2. If you don’t take wealth seriously, wealth won’t take you seriously;
I often see people recklessly dumping tens or hundreds of thousands into bets without pausing to think—even for a second—about where they went wrong or how they should approach this investment market.
Simply put, most people are impatient, unwilling to grow rich slowly, and refuse even one second of serious contemplation about wealth. They rely on others, luck, or information to get rich.
I collectively call such people lambs (aka “cattle” for slaughter).
Lambs disrespect wealth. The market is magical—when you don’t treat wealth seriously, wealth won’t treat you seriously either.
3. Another point: What exactly is wealth?
Think carefully—what does wealth truly mean to us?
Wealth is the actual money you withdraw from this space, the tangible improvement in your quality of life and social standing. That’s real wealth—for example, after achieving greater results, experiencing profound shifts in thinking, investing in your health to become better, meeting future co-founders, living diverse experiences, and genuinely accumulating stable, growing wealth. These constitute true wealth!
If your account merely shows A9 while endlessly pumping, that’s not wealth—I’d rather call it: chips.
4. The real profitable framework suitable for most insiders;
Next, I want to share a foundational mindset strategy that most people can execute and achieve results with—not my first time writing about it, but always with fresh insights. I hope we can learn together:
If you’re like me—relatively slow, lacking exceptional trading talent, and insensitive to on-chain movements—then follow this strategy faithfully, just as I do.
This strategy requires neither high talent nor brilliance. Any ordinary person who sticks to it consistently will inevitably make money:
5. The essence of financial markets and the optimal strategy for ordinary people;
We’ve clarified the nature of trading markets (a uniquely retail-driven speculative environment) and summarized their characteristics (extreme volatility, short bull runs, long bear markets).
Based on these traits, I’ve developed the optimal trading strategy for ordinary people—a hybrid approach combining strengths of value investing and trend investing known as the "buy early, sell late" strategy.
Then, we identified two key factors enabling this strategy’s success (a cyclical market + continuous capital inflow), along with methods ensuring smooth execution (scientific position management + choosing Bitcoin-based assets).
Several points here are critical:
1️⃣ What is the optimal trading strategy:
I believe this strategy is universally applicable.
Compared to the extreme uncertainty of fast in-and-out leveraged contracts and the struggles of meme P moonboys, value investing is the only learnable method, while trend investing merely requires disciplined execution.
In short, diligence + overcoming human weaknesses = guaranteed results.
2️⃣ Why emphasize two key factors:
These are currently the foundation of my survival in this market: a cyclical trading environment + continuous funding.
1) Cyclicity: This market is inherently cyclical. Its greatest kindness is its remarkable stability. Unlike Myanmar’s decade-long stagnation, the crypto bull-bear cycle repeating every three to four years will likely persist for a long time. This is the cycle. In a stably cyclical market, making money is like reaching into a pocket.
2) Continuous funding: This is equally vital. Ideally, you have solid cash flow supporting you through cycles, allowing you to endure bear markets and muster courage at cycle bottoms. Two days ago, I wrote: Anyone who accumulates significant wealth during the process feels something similar: "I'm not actually that brilliant—the money was just blown in by the wind. I was simply picking it up." From personal experience—it’s roughly accurate. But don’t overlook one thing—when it’s your turn to pick up money, first, you must survive, and second, you need capital to do so. Continuous funding is precisely this foundation. Where this stream comes from varies by individual, but having it is non-negotiable.
3️⃣ What ensures smooth progress?
Scientific position management + selecting Bitcoin-based trading assets.
For position management, I recommend using Bitcoin as the core. What does this mean? Refer to my pinned tweet. As the bedrock of the industry, Bitcoin exists on a higher plane—it’s the clearest manifestation of Lindy’s effect. So long as the industry stands firm, holding Bitcoin is essential. If you lack strong talent yet avoid buying Bitcoin, hoping instead to gamble your way up—stop kidding yourself, you’re just another lamb. In fact, over 90% of participants’ long-term returns fail to beat Bitcoin. Most VC firms and funds within crypto also underperform Bitcoin. So why wouldn’t you hold Bitcoin?
Beyond Bitcoin, you may reserve 20–30% of your portfolio for well-researched projects—to maintain industry relevance and act quickly when opportunities arise, and to satisfy your trading impulses. But once a 10x or 100x gain occurs, promptly convert profits back into Bitcoin and wait patiently for the next cycle.
With a strategy and asset selection in place, it’s time to act.
4️⃣ Bull-bear cycle judgment and experience:
Two phrases I often repeat:
First, I value the compounding benefits brought by patience and waiting in long-term investing. Second, I believe investing is an accumulation of experience and luck. If we lack extraordinary intelligence, we must strive to survive multiple bull markets.
Surviving multiple bull cycles serves two purposes: one, encountering more life-changing opportunities and accumulating more chips to participate; two, gaining better market sense to make correct judgments.
First, determine the current market phase (as per my earlier emotional cycle theory), so you remain clear-headed and avoid blind actions. Only then can you buy at the right stage and sell at the right stage (“dead silence” phase to buy, “mania” phase to sell). Using “emotional theory” + “specific market conditions” as primary references, guided by the dual criteria of “space + time,” deploy full positions before the bull run begins, and gradually liquidate according to trend-investing exit rules once the bull market reverses.
Currently, the overall market has clearly not entered the “mania” phase. If, like me, you’ve already managed your positions and laid the groundwork, the only action now is patient waiting—for the composite signals indicating a bull top:
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On-chain indicators: High MVRV (3~4+), NUPL entering euphoria zone, extremely high proportion of unrealized gains;
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Sentiment indicators: Fear & Greed Index staying above 80 for extended periods, widespread media and public discussion;
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Technical indicators: Price far above long-term moving averages, weekly or monthly RSI severely overbought; price hits new highs but volume fails to confirm or shows divergence;
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Derivatives overheating: Futures market leverage spikes, long/short ratio imbalanced, funding rates elevated;
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Mainstream capital flows: Institutions or whale addresses selling heavily, exchange balances rising;
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Macro and sentiment: Shift from loose to tight monetary policy, major bullish news failing to push prices higher, while negative news easily triggers sharp volatility.
If in the future these signals converge or mostly appear simultaneously, beware of an imminent market peak and correction risk. Absolute tops are usually only confirmed in hindsight, but referencing these metrics helps timely profit-taking and avoids blind chasing.
The mania phase is typically brief. Once these signals emerge, the market may quickly enter a downtrend—but declines won’t be sudden. Usually, it’s a slow bleed, finally culminating in the “dead silence” phase. Before that arrives, we must practice what we preach—be ruthless in the selling phase. If you don’t know how to sell, you’ll lose substantial profits and, when the next bear market hits, lack sufficient capital to bottom-fish, missing the next wave.
Repeat this cycle. As long as you plan well, once the bull market starts, your account enters hyper-profit mode. Each bull cycle sees Bitcoin rise at least 5–10x from lows, with altcoins delivering 100x returns being normal. Our goal—or my goal—is simply doubling Bitcoin holdings once per cycle. I believe that’s enough.
This target isn’t high relative to the effort involved, yet the actual returns are substantial and conducive to long-term stability.
6. Summary
So I believe those with natural P moonboy talent are one-in-ten-thousand prodigies—they should fully leverage it. After dominating, they must transform their gains into real wealth and will surely become major players in the future!
If you lack such talent, don’t despair. Industry opportunities and barriers remain highly favorable for ordinary people. Trust that you’re making the right choice. Avoid arrogance, impatience, and anxiety—these emotions are enemies of profit-making.
Focus on doing what benefits you, what suits you. As I mentioned earlier, my wife—who knows nothing about blockchain technology or on-chain operations—has earned more than most. Over two years, her principal has tripled in this cycle, largely thanks to Bitcoin.
Another advantage of this strategy is never missing out on Bitcoin’s future upside. Bitcoin offers the highest certainty return—the source of true wealth and inner peace.
After all, money flows toward those with calm minds.
How high will Bitcoin go eventually? $200K, $500K, or $1M? I don’t think that matters.
What’s coming will come. Sit back, burn incense, sip tea, and wait for flowers to bloom.
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