Could Trump's Bitcoin reserve trigger an unprecedented rally in the cryptocurrency market?
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Could Trump's Bitcoin reserve trigger an unprecedented rally in the cryptocurrency market?
In 2025, Bitcoin is highly anticipated to surpass $100,000 and potentially climb further, driven by Trump's return to the presidency and his crypto-friendly policies, although regulatory and market uncertainties remain key challenges.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsBy: Dmytro Spilka
Translation: Baishuo Blockchain
In 2025, the future of Bitcoin is filled with anticipation, as market giants turn their eyes toward a potential Trump comeback, hoping this event could become a major catalyst for the year's crypto market growth.
1. Bitcoin Breaks All-Time High
Following Donald Trump’s presidential election victory on November 5, 2024, Bitcoin surpassed the $100,000 milestone for the first time. As Trump officially took office on January 20, 2025, market enthusiasm reached even greater heights.
Fueled by Trump’s promises of regulatory relaxation and a strategic Bitcoin reserve plan, market confidence grew exponentially. According to data from FX Street, cryptocurrency adoption among individuals aged 18 to 25 surged by 683% after the presidential election, making the upper limit of Bitcoin’s price a hot topic of discussion.
2. The Future of Bitcoin: How Will Trump’s Second Term Impact the Market?
Could Trump’s policies push Bitcoin to unprecedented new highs? Would establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve become a watershed moment in Bitcoin’s history? Let’s explore the potential impacts.
1) Creating a Bitcoin Reserve
During his campaign last year, Trump pledged that all Bitcoin currently held by the U.S. government—and any future acquisitions—would be placed into a "National Strategic Bitcoin Reserve." He compared this initiative to the U.S. petroleum reserve, emphasizing the urgency of building up large-scale holdings before competitive nations like China do.
Trump’s proposal isn’t unprecedented globally. Back in 2021, El Salvador adopted Bitcoin as a reserve asset and has since accumulated 6,150 Bitcoins, worth approximately $600 million at current prices.
While specific details of Trump’s Bitcoin reserve plan remain unclear—and its actual implementation uncertain—there are indications it may draw inspiration from Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis’s proposed "BITCOIN Act" (Boosting Innovation, Technology and Competitiveness Through Optimized Investment Nationwide).
According to Maxim Manturov, Head of Investment Research at Freedom24, “Under the so-called BITCOIN Act, the U.S. would need to accumulate one million Bitcoins over the next 20 years—roughly 5% of the total supply. The limited supply of Bitcoin is expected to drive up its price, and by accumulating now, the U.S. could help offset growing debt issues in the future.”
Given that Bitcoin’s total supply is capped at 21 million coins, 5% equates to 1.05 million Bitcoins—valued at over $100 billion at current levels.
2) Supply-Demand Imbalance Could Drive Prices Higher
With massive demand from Bitcoin ETFs already in play, this supply-demand imbalance could further boost prices. Manturov notes that under such conditions, Bitcoin price forecasts range from $125,000 in 2025 to as high as $2.9 million by 2050.
It remains uncertain whether Trump’s policies will materialize, but if implemented, the U.S. could not only emerge as a leader in Bitcoin reserves but also exert profound influence over the future of the crypto market. A historic moment for Bitcoin may indeed be approaching.
3. How High Can Bitcoin Go?
The timing of Trump’s return to the presidency is particularly significant because Bitcoin just completed its fourth “halving event” in 2024. This pre-programmed mechanism occurs roughly every four years, automatically cutting in half the amount of Bitcoin miners receive as rewards for processing transactions.
1) Halving Events and Market Rallies
The halving increases the scarcity of newly minted Bitcoin, and historically, this mechanism has triggered market rebounds and propelled Bitcoin to new all-time highs.
As a result, expectations for Bitcoin’s performance in the first half of 2025 were already high, and the optimism brought by Trump could further accelerate adoption.
2) Trump’s Price Expectations
According to sources, Trump privately hopes Bitcoin will reach $150,000 early in his term and views it as an alternative to the stock market.
Trump’s son, Eric Trump, is even more bullish. At the December Bitcoin Conference MENA, he stated that Bitcoin could eventually reach $1 million.
While cryptocurrency speculation, global market dynamics, and geopolitical volatility make such predictions uncertain, given investor enthusiasm and Bitcoin’s fixed supply, reaching $1 million may not be entirely out of the question.
However, in 2025, Bitcoin’s price might align more closely with Trump’s $150,000 forecast. But if market sentiment continues to strengthen, even $150,000 could prove conservative.
4. Potential Risks Remain
A key challenge facing the Trump administration is that uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin’s future outlook persists.
John Prasad, Senior Investment Expert at Mirabaud Group, points out that while Bitcoin holds great potential, it also faces significant uncertainties. He cites inflation pressures, liquidity concerns, global regulatory landscapes, and ongoing debates about Bitcoin’s role as a store of value as reasons why its growth isn’t guaranteed.
Chris Lehman, Washington bureau chief of The Nation, argues that rising acceptance of crypto in the U.S. could lead to a surge in scams and “pump-and-dump” schemes—precisely what former SEC Chair Gary Gensler worked hard to combat.
Although Gensler’s departure was welcomed by the crypto community, looser regulatory frameworks could ultimately harm the credibility of the entire crypto market.
5. Trump’s Transformative Influence
There’s no doubt that Trump’s new administration will be one of the most influential forces on the cryptocurrency ecosystem since Bitcoin’s inception in 2009.
His pledges to establish a Bitcoin reserve and implement crypto-friendly policies are fueling market expectations for 2025 to become a landmark year for digital assets. Many speculative investors already take strong price appreciation for granted.
Yet, the industry’s speculative nature means uncertainty remains, and in an open regulatory environment, bad actors could further damage cryptocurrency’s reputation.
Trump will undoubtedly play a pivotal role in shaping the future of Bitcoin and the broader crypto ecosystem—but how his second term will ultimately impact this market remains full of unknowns.
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