ETF fund flows may signal the next market act—will ETH finally take the baton from BTC?
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ETF fund flows may signal the next market act—will ETH finally take the baton from BTC?
Last week, Ethereum spot ETFs saw net inflows of $349 million, while Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced net outflows of $388 million during the same period.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsWritten by: Azuma, Odaily Planet Daily
On December 29, Eugene Ng Ah Sio, a highly influential trader within the crypto community, shared his outlook and expectations for Q1 2025 on X, predicting that ETH will be the best-performing major token in the next quarter.
Eugene outlined three bullish reasons for ETH: technical momentum; Trump's favor (especially WLF’s significant purchases in the Ethereum ecosystem); and the development status of the Base ecosystem. He later posted again emphasizing that since Trump's election, capital inflows into spot Ethereum ETFs have undergone a complete 180-degree shift.
ETF Capital Flows: Is Ethereum More Favored?
Eugene isn't exaggerating. According to SoSoValue data, since Trump's victory on November 6, capital inflows into spot Ethereum ETFs have surged significantly—outpacing even those of Bitcoin spot ETFs during the same period.
By late December, this trend has become even more pronounced.
Data from SoSoValue shows that during last week’s trading sessions (December 23–27, US Eastern Time), spot Ethereum ETFs recorded a weekly net inflow of $349 million, while Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $388 million. This stark contrast in capital flows may signal stronger market expectations for ETH going forward.
At the time of writing, official ETF inflow/outflow data for Monday is not yet fully released. However, according to Lookonchain’s on-chain monitoring, yesterday ten US Bitcoin ETFs had a net outflow of 3,000 BTC ($275.59 million), while nine Ethereum ETFs saw a net inflow of 16,359 ETH ($54.33 million)—suggesting the trend remains unchanged.
The Full Trump-Themed Basket
Besides ETF flow data, another factor supporting ETH sentiment is the continued accumulation by Trump-family-related project WLFI.
In recent months, WLFI has successively purchased multiple Ethereum-based tokens such as AAVE, LINK, ENA, and ONDO. However, ETH remains its largest holding by far.
While this is partly due to WIFI itself being built on the Ethereum network, the narrative "the President is already in—why are you still hesitating?" continues to generate strong FOMO effects.
Looking Back at Historical Data: Will the Script Repeat?
Coinglass data reveals that historically, in the first quarter following both U.S. presidential elections and Bitcoin halving cycles, ETH has performed exceptionally well. In Q1 2017 and Q1 2021, ETH surged 518% and 161%, respectively—outperforming BTC’s returns of 11.9% and 103.2% in those quarters.
If history repeats itself, ETH could see a significant rally in Q1 next year.
Potential Beta Plays
If ETH does indeed rise as expected, certain Ethereum ecosystem tokens may offer higher risk/reward beta exposure, including:
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Trump-themed basket: AAVE, LINK, ENA, ONDO;
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Grayscale Top 20 picks: LINK, UNI, AAVE, ENA, OP, LDO;
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Tokens potentially benefiting from ETF staking expectations: LDO, EIGEN, RPL, SSV;
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Top AI-focused projects in the Ethereum ecosystem: VIRTUAL, GAME, AIXBT;
Odaily Note: The above tokens are listed solely as examples within specific sectors or themes and do not constitute investment advice.
Contrarian View
While several prominent investors and traders, including Eugene, have openly expressed bullish views on ETH, there are also voices expressing pessimism about ETH’s future performance.
Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, painted a more bearish scenario, expecting ETH to continue underperforming and fail to reach new highs in 2025 amid a “hawkish” macro environment: “We expect a more conservative outlook for ETH in 2025. Unlike previous years, early hawkish policies may be tested by weakening liquidity tailwinds.”
With markets currently experiencing high volatility, all forecasts represent partial conclusions based on individual perspectives and indicators. No one can predict the future—always remember to do your own research (DYOR) before making any moves.
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