Hyperliquid has redefined the PerpDEX ceiling—so how do we value Bluefin?
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Hyperliquid has redefined the PerpDEX ceiling—so how do we value Bluefin?
Bluefin's reasonable FDV range is between $400 million and $600 million.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsBy: NingNing
Hyperliquid, with a ~$14 billion FDV, has redefined the ceiling for the PerpDEX sector. So, what will Bluefin's FDV be at its upcoming TGE?
Before building a valuation model, let’s first understand the major shifts in the broader PerpDEX landscape:
Regulatory inflection point approaching: Due to their leveraged nature and inherent customer losses, perpetual contracts face strict regulatory scrutiny. Numerous jurisdictions—including the United States—prohibit both centralized exchanges (CEXs) and PerpDEXs from offering perpetual trading services. This has significantly constrained the market size and user base of PerpDEXs.
However, with Trump’s sweeping electoral victory, the pace of crypto regulatory compliance is accelerating. PerpDEXs are highly likely to enter a new springtime. Two recent developments are particularly noteworthy: First, David Sacks—Trump’s appointee as crypto and AI advisor—holds significant positions in dYdX, a leading player in the sector. Second, the CFTC is set to replace the SEC as the primary regulator for the crypto industry. As widely known, the CFTC played a key role in approving Bitcoin futures on the CME, and it maintains a relatively more favorable stance toward PerpDEX regulation compared to the SEC.
Shift in product paradigm: Since GMX, there hasn’t been any major innovation in PerpDEX product design—most projects have merely iterated on the GMX framework.
Now, thanks to infrastructure-as-a-service platforms like Cosmos SDK and OP Stack, building and operating blockchain infrastructures has become commoditized. AppChains have emerged as a popular choice among next-gen PerpDEXs: HyperLiquid, for example, is a Layer-1 appchain built on Cosmos SDK, while Aevo operates as a Layer-2 solution based on OP Stack.
Yet another group of rising PerpDEXs in this cycle—including Bluefin and Jupiter—are choosing instead to build atop high-performance Layer-1 blockchains. Solana and Sui offer abundant and low-cost block space, enabling these platforms to maintain composability while continuously tapping into native ecosystem growth for TVL, liquidity, and new users—creating a virtuous cycle that feeds back into the broader ecosystem.
The three pillars of valuation modeling: benchmark selection, comparison dimensions (feature selection), and valuation calculation.
From the above analysis, we can see that Bluefin’s true peer isn’t Hyperliquid, but rather Jupiter—sharing similar product paradigms and ecosystem positioning. However, since Bluefin and Jupiter are at different stages of their product lifecycle, our valuation model should place greater emphasis on Bluefin’s growth potential given its earlier stage.
Let’s examine Bluefin’s metrics:
1. Current performance
TVL: $35 million
Daily average trading volume: $70 million
Cumulative trading volume: $38 billion
Market share: Over 85% of Solana’s perpetual contracts market
User base: 72,000 monthly active users
2. Growth trajectory
TVL: +220% increase over 90 days
Users: +185% increase over 90 days
Fees revenue: Peak of $80,000 per day
Trading volume: Peak of $180 million per day
Jupiter’s comparable metrics:
Daily average trading volume: $900 million (spot + perpetual)
TVL: $2.4 billion
FDV: $13.1 billion
Based on these indicators, combined with subjectively weighted factors and calculated using a softmax function, Bluefin’s fair FDV range falls between $400 million and $600 million.
Yet, a $400–600 million FDV is not Bluefin’s endgame—it’s just the beginning.
If Sui continues its rapid growth trajectory and Bluefin achieves further breakthroughs across its product suite—including DEX aggregators, spot trading, and PerpDEX—its FDV reaching over $1 billion within this cycle is entirely possible.
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