Metrics Ventures Market Outlook: When a Unified Uptrend Meets Heavy Selling Pressure
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Metrics Ventures Market Outlook: When a Unified Uptrend Meets Heavy Selling Pressure
The previous four-year cycle has already changed, and this cycle will continue to extend its lifespan.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsTechFlow December Market Observations Summary:
1/ This month's market has been nothing short of spectacular. Bitcoin’s strong momentum accelerated the entry of previously hesitant external capital. Meanwhile, older, heavily controlled established coins with limited pre-positioning demonstrated significant profitability, triggering broad upward movements among bottom-tier altcoins competing for scarce筹码 (chip) positions. However, actual realized profits within the market are likely minimal. Meme coins, which had built substantial momentum earlier, have already entered consolidation phase ahead of time.
2/ As of the date of writing, external catalysts for crypto assets are showing clearly diminishing marginal effects day by day. Both MSTR and BTC have exhibited high turnover signals typical of market tops. All assets follow inherent financial规律 (patterns), and a consensus-driven rally without correction will inevitably reach its climax and conclusion.
3/ The newly added buying power primarily stems from retail investors—contradicting prevailing narratives within the industry—and once again confirms a shift in market pricing power. This transition carries significant implications for future investment strategies.
Overall Market Performance and Trend Review & Commentary:
The market recently appears extremely active, with fresh capital—particularly retail inflows from the U.S., South Korea, and Europe—generating enthusiastic sentiment. Sectors such as DeFi, benefiting from improved regulatory clarity, have seen organic upward pressure. Notably, beyond these areas, the best-performing assets throughout this move have been veteran, tightly held old coins. Under their influence, the broader altcoin market rallied in an unusually cohesive manner, with surprisingly little divergence.
Rallies without meaningful disagreement or distribution are ultimately unsustainable—like water without roots. In a 24-hour trading environment, a lack of disagreement is paradoxically a sign of underlying market weakness. Therefore, despite Tether’s ongoing issuance of new stablecoins, we remain bearish on the sustainability of most altcoin rebounds. We interpret this seemingly vibrant recovery more as evidence of the crumbling dominance of traditional CEX-based trading systems.
Furthermore, we wish to emphasize: MSTR and BTC’s concentrated volume surges over the past two weeks, coupled with Bitcoin’s failure to accelerate past $100,000, are notably bearish short-term indicators. While we still believe the overarching trend remains intact, growing on-chain profit-taking activity, combined with widespread external optimism predicting MSTR reaching $1,000 and Bitcoin’s “eternal bull run,” suggests risk has accumulated to a non-negligible level.
Based on historical precedent, perfect market timing is unattainable. Yet respecting common sense and prevailing trends remains the optimal approach when navigating digital asset markets today. We believe the prior four-year cycle paradigm has shifted; this cycle will likely extend further in duration, aligning with our recognition of the U.S. dollar system’s structural move toward financialization and decoupling from real economic fundamentals. Nevertheless, storm clouds are gathering. We urge all participants to proceed cautiously and safely through the remainder of this market phase.
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