Crypto Morning Brief: Probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed in December rises to 86%; tokens including APT, ADA, and ENA are set for major unlocks this week
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Crypto Morning Brief: Probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed in December rises to 86%; tokens including APT, ADA, and ENA are set for major unlocks this week
Ethereum's current price trend resembles that of 2016–2017, potentially signaling an explosive upward move ahead.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: TechFlow
Yesterday's Market Dynamics
Binance responds to USUAL and ACX market cap data errors: Caused by directly adopting CMC data; processes to be optimized going forward
Binance stated on social media: "We have noted recent community discussions regarding token supply data for USUAL and ACX, and immediately conducted an internal investigation. The root cause is as follows: Binance directly uses data from CoinMarketCap (CMC) to display circulating supply information for projects on its 'trading page' and 'price page.' Therefore, under previous procedures, if project teams fail to update their data, both CMC and Binance pages would reflect inaccuracies.
Regarding ACX: On December 6, the Binance team identified incorrect circulating data for ACX and promptly contacted the project team to correct the data on CMC. Regarding USUAL: Changes in token supply information were primarily due to differing standards between CMC and the project team on the definition of circulating supply and how data should be referenced. After discussion, the project team has since corrected the data on CMC. As outlined above, we have identified the root cause and conducted a post-mortem analysis. Going forward, we will work to improve coordination and processes among project teams, CMC, and Binance regarding the display of token circulating supply and other key information, ensuring critical details are verified accurately prior to listing and preventing similar issues in the future."
Trump: No plan to replace Fed Chair Powell
According to Jin10 News, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump said in an interview aired Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press with Kristen Welker” that he does not intend to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell after taking office in January next year. When asked whether he would seek to replace Powell, Trump told Welker: "No, I don’t think so." "I think he’d [resign] if I told him. But if I asked him [to resign], he might not."
Sushi plans to launch multiple products on Solana in 2025, including Wara trading platform and perpetual DEX Susa
Sushi CEO Jared Grey released the 2025 product roadmap, which includes launching Wara—a comprehensive trading platform built on Solana—Susa, an on-chain order book-based perpetual DEX, Kubo, a perpetual contracts product, Blade, an anti-MEV LVR AMM solution, and several other new offerings. Additionally, the SushiSwap aggregator will expand distribution through integration with new partners. Grey also hinted at potential future token airdrops.
APT, ADA, ENA and other tokens face large unlocks this week; APT unlock worth ~$160 million
Data from Token Unlocks shows that APT, ADA, ENA, and other tokens will undergo significant unlocks this week:
Aptos (APT) will unlock approximately 11.31 million tokens at midnight Beijing time on December 12, representing 2.11% of current circulating supply, valued at around $160 million;
Cardano (ADA) will unlock approximately 18.53 million tokens at 8:00 AM Beijing time on December 11, representing 0.05% of current circulating supply, valued at about $22.24 million;
Ethena (ENA) will unlock approximately 12.86 million tokens at 3:00 PM Beijing time on December 11, representing 0.44% of current circulating supply, valued at approximately $12.88 million;
Bitget Token (BGB) will unlock approximately 5.38 million tokens at 8:00 AM Beijing time on December 10, representing 0.38% of current circulating supply, valued at roughly $13.98 million;
io.net (IO) will unlock approximately 2.11 million tokens at 8:00 PM Beijing time on December 11, representing 1.68% of current circulating supply, valued at about $7.46 million.
People’s Court Daily: “Mining” embodies abstract social labor; stealing cryptocurrency constitutes theft
On December 5, the People’s Court Daily published an article titled “Criminal Legal Characterization of Illegal Theft of Virtual Currency.” The case background describes how several defendants conspired to steal USDT using malicious contract codes, ultimately stealing a total of 57,307.11 USDT from victim Hu.
In its analysis, the newspaper concluded that the defendants’ actions violated both the crime of illegally obtaining computer system data and theft, but the case should be classified as theft. According to relevant regulations, whether something is protected by law is not necessarily linked to whether it possesses property attributes. While existing rules deny virtual currency legal tender status, they do not deny its property characteristics. For something to qualify economically as property, it must possess value—including utility, scarcity, and controllability.
Scarcity is reflected in the fixed total supply of cryptocurrencies, which are not infinitely available. Controllability lies in the use of asymmetric encryption technology—cryptocurrencies exist within wallets (addresses), and whoever controls the private key can control the assets.
Utility is demonstrated by the fact that specific data codes forming cryptocurrencies require mining to generate, and mining embodies abstract social labor.
In real life, virtual currencies can be transferred and traded, generating quantifiable economic returns, thus possessing both use value and exchange value. Therefore, virtual currencies have property attributes, and stealing them constitutes the crime of theft.
Analyst: Ethereum’s current price trend resembles 2016–2017 cycle, potentially leading to explosive upside
According to Cointelegraph, data indicates Ethereum is undergoing a breakout pattern similar to XRP. In the week ending December 8, ETH broke above the upper trendline of a three-year symmetrical triangle formation. Market analyst VentureFounder predicts Ethereum will experience an “impulse breakout” in the coming months. He notes the current trajectory closely mirrors Ethereum’s 2016–2017 bull cycle and expects a similar explosive rally that previously pushed ETH to new highs.
VentureFounder emphasized that maintaining $3,800 as support is crucial for Ethereum. Successfully holding this level increases the likelihood of retesting its all-time high of $4,878 in the near term, followed by further upside. He even forecasts an ETH price target of $15,937 by May 2025, which would mark the first time Ethereum’s market capitalization surpasses $1 trillion.
Andrew Kang: ARB is severely undervalued; Stylus platform could become primary growth driver
Andrew Kang, partner at Mechanism Capital, posted on social media that despite Arbitrum ($ARB)’s recent strong performance, it remains fundamentally undervalued. Compared to projects like Sui, Avalanche, and Tron, $ARB trades at only a fraction of their valuations, yet achieves multiples higher in transaction volume and TVL (total value locked)—even excluding HL activity.
Kang noted that many institutional investors are now focusing on these fundamental metrics rather than memes. He believes the Stylus platform—which enables developers to build with Rust/C++—alongside game deployments/Animechain and ongoing cross-chain interoperability research, will serve as the biggest drivers of future growth for Arbitrum.
Fed rate cut odds rise to 86% for 25 basis points in December
According to CME’s “Fed Watch,” the probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates unchanged stands at 14%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut has risen to 86%.
Data: Top 15 institutional Bitcoin holders collectively hold ~1.647 million BTC
As disclosed by HODL15Capital, as of December 7, the top 15 institutional holders of Bitcoin collectively own approximately 1.647 million BTC. BlackRock’s IBIT leads with 523,735 BTC, followed by MicroStrategy with 402,100 BTC, and Grayscale’s GBTC in third place with 212,385 BTC.
Other major holders include Fidelity’s FBTC (200,440 BTC), Tether (82,454 BTC), ARKB (48,393 BTC), BITB (41,062 BTC), MARA Holdings (MARA), HODL, Tesla, Coinbase, HUT, BRRR, SQ, Tether, CLSK, and others.
Market Data
Suggested Reading
Old coins keep surging? You may want to understand ISO 20022 behind it
This article introduces the concept of ISO 20022, a global financial messaging standard, and its applications in the cryptocurrency space. ISO 20022 enables different financial institutions to exchange information using a unified format, improving efficiency in cross-border payments. The article lists several crypto projects actively embracing ISO 20022, such as XRP, XLM, ADA, QNT, ALGO, HBAR, and IOTA, analyzing the relationship between official certification and actual implementation. Overall, ISO 20022 enhances cryptocurrencies’ payment functionality and expands their application scenarios, making it highly significant for the future development of digital assets.
Understanding Zerebro: From token issuance to music creation, making bots more fun
Zerebro is an ambitious AI project dedicated to advancing artificial general intelligence (AGI). Through its “liberating AI” technology, it fundamentally breaks through limitations of traditional AI systems, unlocking creativity and autonomy.
Pudgy Penguins launch token, ME imminent—Is the NFT spring back?
Pudgy Penguins launches token, ME about to go live—is the NFT spring returning? Can token launches rescue NFTs?
From simple interactions to foundational applications, then to practical implementations and evolution of virtual personas. Recommended investment strategies include investing in large-scale AI projects performing well such as AI16Z, as well as smaller AI projects building new applications, interactivity, and virtual identities.
Simmi is an innovative platform integrating social media, AI, and finance. Leveraging Simulacrum AI, it autonomously manages wallets linked to X accounts, offering Web2 users a seamless onboarding experience. Within four days, Simmi raised approximately $500,000 and consistently ranks among the top ten on the AI Agents Index. It partnered with AiBT Agent to launch the $CHAOS token, generating substantial revenue. As the flagship project powered by Empyreal SDK, Simmi is attracting growing attention from both markets and institutional investors.
Hyperliquid airdrop model explained: Why does the “product-first, token-later” approach win?
Hyperliquid’s airdrop model reshapes token distribution norms, highlighting the importance of DeFi and user-centric applications in the industry. By withholding token distribution until after product launch and engaging users through iterative improvements before gradually introducing tokens, it may create strong buy-side pressure. Hyperliquid’s emphasis on community culture and aesthetic design is also commendable. However, it may set unrealistic expectations, posing challenges for projects unable to raise large amounts of capital. Founders should focus on product development rather than chasing massive fundraising rounds.
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