2024 Crypto Bull Market New Paradigm: Traditional Top Signals Are Obsolete, Key Indicators Come From Those Not Yet Entered
TechFlow Selected TechFlow Selected
2024 Crypto Bull Market New Paradigm: Traditional Top Signals Are Obsolete, Key Indicators Come From Those Not Yet Entered
When a metric becomes a target, it ceases to be a good metric.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Metaquant
Translation: TechFlow
Not everyone will succeed in this cycle.
You need to shift your mindset and think beyond the crowd. The ranking of the Coinbase app won't tell you when the market peak arrives.
Start thinking differently.
"When a metric becomes a target, it ceases to be a good metric."
In other words, when we set a specific goal, people tend to pursue that goal at all costs, often neglecting other equally important factors.
Moreover, I believe most of the top indicators frequently mentioned on CT may no longer apply this time.
The clear peak signals in 2017 were already less obvious in 2021, and the same will likely hold true for 2024–25.
We are entering a phase of rapid acceleration in crypto adoption. Now, virtually all retail investors have heard of cryptocurrency—some had heard of it in 2017, nearly everyone by 2021. Don’t mistake signs of adoption for peak signals. Don’t let past traumas cloud your judgment.
Another key point is the shift in influence—companies like BlackRock now control Bitcoin. They are the major ETF providers and hold shares in each other.
As such, they now have the power to shape BTC market sentiment. They also control many media platforms and can steer public narratives at will.
In other words, if this bull run is primarily driven by institutional investment, then traditional retail metrics become far less relevant. The key indicators this cycle will come from those not yet in the market. Yes, possibly retail investors who haven't yet touched crypto—the "late majority" and "laggards"—but you need to think on a broader scale.
Sovereign Wealth Funds
Imagine countries with sovereign wealth funds starting to diversify into Bitcoin. Some have already invested in equities, so this scenario is plausible.
• Saudi Arabia - $400 billion
• Abu Dhabi - $800 billion
• China - $1 trillion
• Norway - $1 trillion
• Australia - $150 billion
• Qatar - $300 billion
• Singapore - $500 billion
Corporate Treasury
In 2021, we saw Tesla buy Bitcoin; more recently, Reddit disclosed its crypto holdings. This trend has only just begun. When you start seeing more and more companies diversifying their balance sheets into crypto every day, it might be time to consider reducing risk.
Stock Market IPOs
Coinbase’s 2021 IPO was the first major crypto company to go public. This time, we may see dozens of crypto firms going public, and one of these listings could mark the market peak.
Excessive Leverage
In the final stages of a bull market, large hedge funds, corporations, or even small nations might over-leverage and eventually suffer losses—another possible scenario in this cycle.
Rehypothecation Crisis
The next Luna-like collapse could stem from the rehypothecation space and potentially trigger a bear market. It seems many have overlooked the massive impact de-pegging or liquidation events in this area could cause.
Gold Reserves
The ultimate blow-off signal might be governments diversifying part of their gold reserves into Bitcoin—the so-called "digital gold."
Some additional minor signals:
Labor Shortages in Low-Income Countries
Another notable sign could be labor shortages in low-income countries, as workers earn $300–600 per month mapping roads via HiveMapper or other DePIN projects—more than their usual wages. In the last cycle, Axie and StepN saw similar dynamics on a smaller scale; this time, it could happen on a much larger scale.
Las Vegas Sphere
In 2021, Times Square was flooded with low-quality meme coin ads. This cycle, continuous crypto advertising on the Las Vegas Sphere for weeks on end could serve as a similar phenomenon.
Funding Rounds
A relatively reliable signal is tracking venture capital flows. When funding rounds surge—even surpassing traditional finance investment levels—it could be an indicator to consider exiting the market.
"Financial markets are inherently unpredictable. Therefore, we must prepare for different scenarios... believing you can accurately predict future developments contradicts how I view markets." — George Soros
Join TechFlow official community to stay tuned
Telegram:https://t.me/TechFlowDaily
X (Twitter):https://x.com/TechFlowPost
X (Twitter) EN:https://x.com/BlockFlow_News
@QuantMeta
