The Bull Market Rally (Part 1): Aiming for $200,000, Bitcoin Ushers Into a New Era
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The Bull Market Rally (Part 1): Aiming for $200,000, Bitcoin Ushers Into a New Era
Bitcoin is becoming an important asset class: a strategic national reserve asset.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsBy Anderson Sima, Foresight News
On November 10, Bitcoin's price surged past $80,000, reaching an all-time high. So far this year, Bitcoin has gained over 84%, outperforming all other major asset classes globally—including traditional assets like gold. Bitcoin consistently hits new highs during each bull market cycle. So what could its potential price be after the 2024 halving?
Jan van Eck, CEO of VanEck—one of the world’s largest ETF managers—recently stated in an interview: “My base assumption is that Bitcoin’s total value will eventually reach half the value of all outstanding gold, putting its potential price around $300,000. We are indeed seeing significant inflows from individual investors into Bitcoin ETFs.”
In my view, due to the ripple effects of Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House, Bitcoin could reach the $200,000 mark in this bull market.
Bitcoin’s New Era: A Strategic National Reserve Asset
The primary reason Bitcoin could surpass $200,000 is that it has entered a new narrative phase. After the “digital gold” thesis has gradually been accepted by mainstream financial institutions, Bitcoin is emerging as a critical asset class: a strategic national reserve asset.
On November 10, David Bailey, CEO of Bitcoin Magazine, said on his social media platform: “At least one sovereign nation is actively acquiring Bitcoin and has already become one of the top five holders. I hope we’ll hear about them soon.”
This aligns with information I’ve gathered recently from insiders—a yet-unconfirmed report stating: “A country has recently expressed strong interest in purchasing Bitcoin and has already contacted relevant institutions.”
Currently, governments including those of China, the U.S., and Russia are involved in holding Bitcoin.
First, the U.S. government does hold a substantial amount of Bitcoin, primarily acquired through law enforcement seizures. According to recent data, the U.S. government holds an estimated 200,000+ BTC, valued between $5 billion and $12 billion depending on market fluctuations.
Moreover, at the Bitcoin Conference on July 28, Trump declared that if elected in November, he would fire SEC Chair Gary Gensler, halt any sale of the U.S. government’s Bitcoin holdings, and establish a “strategic Bitcoin reserve.”
In Russia’s case, its interest in Bitcoin stems from sanctions that have restricted its access to the global financial system. Following U.S. sanctions, Russia has actively explored alternatives to bypass the SWIFT system for cross-border trade, with Bitcoin becoming a key tool. In 2024, President Putin signed a law officially legalizing Bitcoin mining, emphasizing the use of Russia’s abundant energy resources to support the industry—an initiative that could provide a steady supply of Bitcoin for national reserves and trade needs.
These actions indicate that Russia is viewing Bitcoin and other digital assets as instruments to counter sanctions and enhance financial sovereignty. On October 23, according to Bloomberg Terminal, as the BRICS summit opened in Kazan, Russia, cryptocurrency was added to the agenda. Russian lawmakers are advancing a proposal whereby Russian miners could sell their tokens to international buyers, while domestic buyers could use Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to pay for imported goods—effectively circumventing Western sanctions.
China’s involvement mainly occurs at the judicial level, particularly in cases involving the freezing and confiscation of virtual currency assets. Authorities have repeatedly conducted investigations into illicit funds and money laundering, including freezing and seizing Bitcoin. While there is no public record of these confiscated assets, certain judicial cases suggest that government agencies may need to hold crypto assets under specific circumstances.
Two smaller nations have already taken the lead. Since 2021, El Salvador has been purchasing Bitcoin; according to The Bitcoin Office of El Salvador, the country continues to buy 1 BTC daily, accumulating a current holding of 5,929.7 BTC, worth approximately $470 million. Another mysterious sovereign state is Bhutan, nestled in the Himalayas. Its national investment agency, Druk Holdings, has been mining Bitcoin using hydropower since 2019 and currently holds about 13,029 BTC, valued at over $1 billion.
Bitcoin: A Key Chip in Great Power Competition
Why are these sovereign nations increasingly engaging with Bitcoin? The fundamental reason lies in shifting global geopolitics.
Over the past decade, the global economy has undergone multiple major disruptions, with deglobalization and trade protectionism on the rise. The safe-haven attributes of traditional assets have been severely tested. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes in recent years have intensified financial market uncertainty, significantly increasing global demand for safe-haven assets. As a decentralized, tamper-proof digital asset, Bitcoin is increasingly seen by institutions and investors alike as a hedge against inflation and systemic risk.
Although Bitcoin lacks physical backing, its unique properties have solidified its status as “digital gold.” With growing global demand for gold purchases, countries such as Russia, Turkey, and China are stockpiling gold to hedge against dollar risks—and their enthusiasm for investing in digital assets is rising accordingly. As a complement to gold, Bitcoin offers these nations a more flexible and convenient hedging mechanism.
Market expectations surrounding the next U.S. president, Donald Trump, also play a crucial role. He is widely expected to significantly ease regulations on digital assets. If he returns to power, his crypto-friendly policies could profoundly reshape global perceptions of Bitcoin. Should the Trump administration actively pursue a Bitcoin strategy, both U.S. allies and rivals would have strong incentives to acquire Bitcoin as a hedge. This move would not only reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar but also provide a powerful anti-inflationary tool for national financial systems. Such dynamics would dramatically increase international demand for Bitcoin, pushing its price to new heights.
Targeting $200,000
Historically, every Bitcoin halving event has been followed by a significant price surge. For example, prices soared after the 2012, 2016, and 2020 halvings. The 2024 Bitcoin halving could serve as a catalyst for another rally, with many expecting the bull market peak to occur within 12–18 months post-halving.
In this cycle, institutional investment in Bitcoin is rising sharply. With the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S., the world’s largest asset management firms are increasing their Bitcoin allocations. Institutional participation brings greater liquidity and stability, serving as a key driver behind this round of price appreciation.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has entered a new easing cycle. The latest FOMC meeting announced a 25-basis-point rate cut, and based on the dot plot, further cuts are expected throughout 2025. Rising expectations of lower interest rates will further support Bitcoin’s upward momentum.
As of 2024, the global market value of gold stands at approximately $13.5 trillion. In contrast, Bitcoin’s market cap is around $1.57 trillion—roughly one-tenth of gold’s. Despite its smaller size, Bitcoin possesses immense potential due to its scarcity (capped at 21 million coins), decentralization, ease of storage, and technological advantages.
If Republicans led by Trump maintain control of both the Senate and House of Representatives, the U.S. will likely enjoy favorable regulatory and monetary conditions for cryptocurrencies until the next midterm elections in 2027. Should Bitcoin reach a $4 trillion market cap within two years, its price would hit $200,000. Only time will tell how high it ultimately goes.
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