Metrics Ventures: The market has already provided the answer—quietly accompanying the industry's growth is the best strategy
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Metrics Ventures: The market has already provided the answer—quietly accompanying the industry's growth is the best strategy
Ride the wave, trade the trend, this heart is bright—what more is there to say?
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsMetrics Ventures' November Market Insights from the secondary market of the crypto sector:
1/ The prolonged seven-month period of disorderly consolidation within the market has finally reached its end. Price action surrounding the election's resolution clearly reflects what we've repeatedly emphasized in recent months: the severe on-chain liquidity crunch and the growing dominance of off-chain price discovery. Previous cyclical trading behaviors are increasingly constrained by broader macro shifts, and the market has now delivered a clear verdict to all participants.
2/ From an on-exchange perspective, altcoin activities have been severely hampered by evident liquidity shortages. All kinds of price manipulations have ended in failure. This month, the market cap ceiling for newly circulating alts stayed around $1 billion, while new tokens have lost their pricing anchors and the Meme sector continues rapid rotation—further confirming the dire state of on-exchange capital flows.
3/ Strategically, there's no need to reiterate old points. Future FOMC decisions or geopolitical developments will not be decisive factors anymore. The tide is powerful and unstoppable—simply riding along with industry growth remains the best approach.
Overview and Commentary on Overall Market Conditions and Trends:
As of the day this report was written, the most notable differences compared to last month’s update are:
① The unexpectedly smooth conclusion of the U.S. election has greatly alleviated risk concerns. Bitcoin broke out to new highs on strong volume. While time is still needed to confirm the validity of this breakout, the prior technical uncertainties should now be considered resolved across all analytical schools.
② Half of the four major risks that loomed over the market this month—geopolitical tensions, rising long-term U.S. Treasury yields, excessive "Trump trade" speculation, and liquidity shortage fears—have now dissipated. Due to the surprisingly strong government outcome, markets may assign favorable risk premiums to various asset classes for some time ahead.
③ Unfortunately, there is still no clear sign of improved on-exchange liquidity. This breakout lacks the momentum and sentiment strength seen at the beginning of the year. Although many VC-backed coins are nearing the end of their March consolidation phase, it is evident that any upcoming rally will likely pale in comparison to previous cycles.
In the long run, the new era has already begun. While interpretations of macroeconomics, politics, military affairs, and economics may vary, the direction and operating model of capital allocation are now transparent. It bears repeating: the shift in capital flow patterns has significantly weakened the correlation between BTC and on-exchange altcoins. In today's environment of high Bitcoin adoption, the much-anticipated broad altseason can only emerge through either extremely loose liquidity conditions or groundbreaking innovation beyond current paradigms.
This monthly report is unusually brief—the core message being: Ride the wave, follow the trend. With clarity in mind, what more needs to be said?
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