Bitcoin Nears New High—How Are Institutions Forecasting the Market Outlook?
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Bitcoin Nears New High—How Are Institutions Forecasting the Market Outlook?
Institutional players are universally bullish, while the options market is primarily focused on selling call options.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Nan Zhi, Odaily Planet Daily
In the early hours today, BTC briefly rose to 73,650 USDT before pulling back, just about 130 USDT short of its previous high this March at 73,787.1 USDT. Meanwhile, with major macro events such as U.S. non-farm payroll data and the November rate cut decision approaching, volatility in crypto assets is expected to rise further. Bitcoin stands on the verge of reaching a new all-time high, needing only that final push. How are institutions viewing the market outlook? Odaily Planet Daily compiles key perspectives and supporting arguments below.
10x Research: Market narrative shifts — Bitcoin targets $100,000
10x Research noted in its market analysis that as ETF demand grows parabolically, Bitcoin is likely to follow suit, potentially reaching $101,694 by the end of January 2025. A strong bullish window is expected to extend through the first quarter of 2025.
The market narrative is no longer positioning DeFi as the future or an external alternative to traditional finance, but instead pivoting toward Bitcoin as “digital gold.” This framework establishes Bitcoin as a permanent, long-term asset within institutional portfolios.
Bitfinex: Bitcoin to break new highs next month
Analysts from cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex said that the potential for Donald Trump winning the presidential election, combined with historically bullish market conditions, could create a "perfect storm" for price action, possibly pushing Bitcoin to a new all-time high next month.
"The convergence of election uncertainty, the 'Trump trade' narrative, and favorable Q4 seasonality creates a perfect storm for Bitcoin. Regardless of price movements ahead of the election in two weeks, the period ahead will be exciting," they said.
The analysts added that despite significant volatility caused by Middle East geopolitical tensions and other U.S. macroeconomic issues, expectations of Trump potentially winning the November 5 election have driven a sharp rebound in Bitcoin's price.
Options data: $80,000 level emerges as key, call selling dominates
According to data from DeFi derivatives platform Derive, as the U.S. election on November 5 draws near, Bitcoin traders are preparing for heightened volatility, with expected price swings as high as 20%.
"As we approach major financial events, the latest trading analysis reveals compelling insights into market dynamics," said Derive founder Nick Forster on Monday.
Data shows positioning concentrated around the $80,000 Bitcoin strike price, with strong short-term call selling as traders use option premiums to hedge against potential price moves.
"Call selling dominance indicates traders are strategically collecting premium, while the focus on the $80,000 target highlights a potential inflection point for Bitcoin," Forster said.
He explained that over the past 24 hours, call options accounted for over 47% of volume, as traders aim to capture premium from election-related volatility. The volatility patterns across different expiry dates suggest traders are bracing for swings in the coming week, though the directional bias remains unclear.
VanEck: Bitcoin moves positively with Trump’s odds, negatively with USD long-term
Matthew Siegel, Head of Digital Asset Research at VanEck, said Bitcoin’s recent rally appears tied to political shifts and global economic concerns. He pointed out that upcoming U.S. elections, changes in money supply, and international developments in Bitcoin mining are influencing current price trends.
Regarding the impact of the upcoming U.S. presidential election on Bitcoin, he explained that historically, Bitcoin tends to react to shifts in political sentiment—especially when candidates perceived as more supportive of digital assets gain momentum in polls.
Recent price movements align with rising betting odds on Trump, a pro-crypto candidate. "We believe this sets up very favorably for Bitcoin heading into the election. We saw the exact same pattern in 2020, when Bitcoin underperformed and remained low-volatility. Once the winner was announced, we experienced a high-volatility rebound as new buyers entered the market," Siegel said.
He also emphasized the importance of Bitcoin’s long-term negative correlation with the U.S. dollar. Periods of dollar weakness often coincide with Bitcoin price gains, as investors seek alternative stores of value. Another key factor he highlighted is Bitcoin’s correlation with growth in the money supply, particularly M2, which tracks cash and readily available funds. Siegel noted that recent Federal Reserve policy adjustments have reignited money supply growth, renewing investor interest in Bitcoin.
DWF Co-founder: Market remains unstable but directionally bullish
Andrei Grachev, co-founder of DWF Labs, posted on X: "Uptober is the first month of a bullish cycle spanning Q4 2024 to Q1 2025. The market remains highly volatile, but the direction is positive."
"In my view, current trends include Memes, chains that successfully launch meme coin platforms, yield-generating assets, artificial intelligence, and RWA."
Buckle up — history shows 7 out of 9 similar setups led to rallies
Technical analyst Tony Severino recently wrote that Bitcoin is poised for a major price move, as its Bollinger Bands form one of the tightest configurations in history. When Bollinger Bands reach such extreme tightness—a phenomenon known as a "Bollinger Band squeeze"—it signals low volatility and often precedes a strong breakout.
Severino noted that Bitcoin’s Bollinger Bands, used to measure price volatility and identify trend direction, are currently among the three tightest instances ever recorded over a two-week timeframe.
Historically, such contractions have led to substantial Bitcoin price moves. A similar situation occurred in April 2016, when the Bollinger Bands tightened significantly for the first time. Following that, Bitcoin began a strong rally over the subsequent months, marking the start of a bull run. Another key example occurred in July 2023, when the bands again reached extreme tightness—followed once more by a major price surge.
It should be noted that while such compression signals a potential large move, it does not indicate direction—it could result in a sharp rally or a steep drop. For instance, a similar pattern observed in 2018 preceded a significant decline in Bitcoin’s price.
Historical data shows that in nine prior instances of such tight ranges, Bitcoin rallied seven times afterward.
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