ETH posts biggest single-day gain since August—has the "October rally" self-fulfilling prophecy come true?
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ETH posts biggest single-day gain since August—has the "October rally" self-fulfilling prophecy come true?
The U.S. presidential election campaign is once again in full swing.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: 1912212.eth, Foresight News
At the beginning of October, a significant market pullback sparked growing skepticism among some investors, raising concerns that the historically bullish month might finally be different this time. Yet again, history seems to prove it's still the same.
After surging to an all-time high of $66,000 at the end of September, BTC didn't pause but instead plunged dramatically, testing lows near $59,000. However, it was precisely this volatility that set the stage for an even stronger rebound. Starting October 11, market sentiment shifted abruptly—BTC surged 3.67% in a single day, reclaiming the $63,000 level and then racing higher to reach $66,500.
Meanwhile, Ethereum also broke free from constraints, climbing from $2,300 to $2,650 with a daily gain exceeding 6.52%, marking its largest single-day increase since August.
Fueled by excitement and optimism, multiple sectors including public blockchain tokens like SUI, SEI, APT; stablecoin-related ENA; AI-focused ARKM, WLD; and meme coins all experienced substantial rallies.
In derivatives markets, short positions suffered heavy losses. Total liquidations across platforms reached $246 million within 24 hours, with $210 million attributed to short squeezes. BTC open interest also spiked above $37 billion.
With altcoins going into frenzy mode, is the second half of the bull market truly beginning?
BTC Spot ETF Sees Major Daily Net Inflows
Since early October, net outflows have been roughly balanced by inflows. From October 8, there were three consecutive days of net outflows totaling nearly $180 million.
However, on October 11, data reversed sharply—Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a record single-day net inflow of $253.54 million, the highest since October began. Following this significant capital inflow from off-exchange sources, BTC price began its strong upward move on the same day.
Off-chain investor confidence remains relatively firm.
Fed Expected to Continue Rate Cuts, Market Sentiment Stable
This week, the U.S. released two key inflation indicators—September’s CPI and PPI data. Both headline and core CPI showed year-on-year and month-on-month increases above expectations. Nevertheless, the 2.4% annual CPI rise marked the lowest since February 2021. Meanwhile, PPI remained flat month-on-month, signaling further cooling in inflation pressures.
Goldman Sachs economists noted that while the September CPI and PPI readings presented mixed signals, the final figures were close to forecasts, indicating U.S. inflation continues moving toward the Fed's 2% target. The central bank appears to be nearing its goal.
Following the release of these major inflation reports, traders are now almost certain the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at both the November and December meetings.
U.S. Presidential Election
Historically, the crypto market tends to rally around the time of the U.S. presidential election. With results expected on November 5—just 20 days away—the countdown has begun.
Moreover, Bloomberg reported that even Vice President Kamala Harris, traditionally not closely linked to the crypto space, is actively campaigning for votes.
On Monday, Harris unveiled a new initiative offering loans to Black entrepreneurs and others facing financial barriers. According to her campaign platform targeting Black male voters, the plan aims to provide up to one million loans, with up to $20,000 eligible for forgiveness. Harris also pledged support for a clear crypto regulatory framework, aiming to offer greater investment certainty for the 20% of African Americans who own or have owned digital assets.
Meanwhile, Trump-affiliated DeFi lending project World Liberty Financial has been making waves recently, bringing in seasoned executives and preparing for the public sale of its WLFI token.
Data from Polymarket shows Donald Trump currently holds a substantial lead over Harris in predicted odds of winning.
The market generally believes a Trump presidency would be positive for crypto. However, given that both presidential candidates have expressed pro-crypto views, the negative impact of either candidate winning is considered negligible.
The 2016–2020 bull cycle occurred under Republican President Trump, while the 2020–2024 period saw Democratic President Biden in office. In both administrations, the BTC-led crypto market experienced strong bull runs.
Looking back at the past two market cycles, the political party of the U.S. president has not altered the upward trajectory of the crypto market.
Once the election outcome is finalized, some观望 funds may abandon hesitation and boldly enter the crypto market.
Outlook for Future Price Movements
Coinbase Analysts: Macro Drivers Shift from Monetary Policy to U.S. Election Results
Coinbase analysts David Duong and David Han noted that despite Bitcoin’s lackluster price performance this week, “market sentiment has largely remained unchanged—evidenced by stable perpetual contract funding rates and open interest levels over the past week.” They emphasized that macro factors influencing crypto performance are shifting from monetary policy to the U.S. election outcome. Despite recent upticks in CPI and core PPI, market expectations for rate cuts remain broadly intact.
They also mentioned that China’s upcoming fiscal policy briefing this Saturday could indirectly affect the crypto market, especially during a period when many traditional markets will be closed. Cryptocurrencies may serve as a proxy for market sentiment regarding the scale and strength of any announced fiscal measures.
Bitfinex: BTC Short-Term Holder Realized Price Emerges as Key Resistance
The latest analysis from Bitfinex Alpha highlights the short-term holder realized price (around $63,000) as a critical resistance level. A breakout above this zone could trigger further upside momentum, whereas failure may lead to a retest of support at $59,000—or even $55,000.
Bitfinex Alpha notes the market remains in a passive state, with future direction hinging on whether Bitcoin can surpass the short-term holder realized price. Traders are advised to stay alert for potential pullbacks while preparing for a possible strong rebound.
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