With a 70% general election win probability surpassing Trump, what crypto policies will Harris pursue?
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With a 70% general election win probability surpassing Trump, what crypto policies will Harris pursue?
Harris, who has remained silent, and her team members are anti-crypto; the market largely believes that Harris's election would be negative for the crypto industry.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Nanzhi, Odaily Planet Daily
According to prediction market Polymarket data, Kamala Harris's (hereinafter "Harris") probability of winning the 2024 U.S. presidential popular vote has risen to 77%, while Donald Trump's has dropped to 21%. One month ago, following an assassination attempt, Trump’s odds surged to 70%, far exceeding those of Biden, triggering a significant rally in Bitcoin that peaked near $70,000.
The Biden administration has consistently maintained a strict regulatory stance toward crypto. As Vice President and Biden’s successor, will Harris continue such stringent policies? Odaily analyzes based on available market information.
Silent Harris
Public records and White House financial disclosures show that both U.S. Vice President Harris and her husband hold substantial investments, but neither owns any digital assets. She has never made public statements supporting or opposing cryptocurrencies, tokenization, blockchain, or NFTs.
Last Thursday, Democratic Congressman Ro Khanna hosted a meeting aimed at mending relations with the cryptocurrency industry. Approximately twenty people attended, including government officials such as the Deputy Treasury Secretary, Deputy Director of the National Economic Council, Deputy White House Chief of Staff, and Kristine Lucius, a senior advisor to Harris. Attendees from the crypto sector included billionaire Mark Cuban, SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci, and executives from Ripple, Coinbase, Kraken, and Uniswap.
However, Harris did not attend the meeting. According to FOX reporter Eleanor, communication during the session was strained, the atmosphere tense, and disagreements arose. Eleanor attributed this to Harris herself having never taken a public position—her team members were unable to make commitments while attempting to repair crypto relations, resulting in what she described as a posture of “willingness to listen, but no promises.”
Recently, Harris selected Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate. Walz has also never clearly stated his stance on crypto policy. The only publicly known event involving cryptocurrency is that he received a $4,000 political donation in October 2022 from Nishad Singh, former FTX engineering director.
The Team Is Taking Action
Although Harris has not yet explicitly expressed her views on the crypto industry, her team’s actions reveal certain signals.
According to a recent Bloomberg report, Harris has hired three outside advisors to assist in shaping her latest economic messaging, including Mike Pyle—her first economic advisor during her vice presidency—and two former Biden economic aides, Brian Deese and Bharat Ramamurti. Sources indicate that while the overall proposal is relatively moderate, it includes tax proposals targeting wealthy cryptocurrency holders.
Regarding the three external advisors involved in crafting the economic message, Galaxy Research head Alex Thorn noted that Brian Deese and Bharat Ramamurti were key figures within the Biden administration who opposed cryptocurrency, and outlined their respective roles in that opposition. This article will not elaborate further; readers may refer to Alex’s original thread for details (click to view).
Alex further pointed out that Mike Pyle previously worked extensively for Senator Elizabeth Warren, the Senate’s most vocal critic of cryptocurrency. Mike served in Warren’s Senate office and led economic policy development for her presidential campaign.
Market Opinions
Bernstein: Harris Victory Bearish for Crypto Market
Brokerage firm Bernstein recently stated in a research report that if Trump wins the U.S. election in November, it would be positive for the cryptocurrency market, whereas a Harris victory would be negative.
The report notes that Bitcoin weakened after Polymarket odds and polls shifted toward Harris, and expects BTC to remain range-bound until election outcomes become clearer. Trump has been outspoken about his crypto policies and has engaged directly with industry companies, Bitcoin miners, and the broader community, pledging favorable support for Bitcoin and crypto innovation in his platform—even suggesting the possibility of establishing a national Bitcoin reserve.
Gemini Co-founder: Supporting Harris Means Opposing Crypto Industry
The Federal Reserve has taken enforcement action against banks serving pro-crypto clients, requiring them to provide 30 days’ notice before establishing new banking relationships with crypto firms. This move has raised questions about the sincerity of Vice President Harris’s campaign in repairing ties with the crypto industry.
Gemini co-founder Tyler Winklevoss and Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson have both stated that the current U.S. government holds a hostile stance toward the crypto industry, warning voters that supporting Harris could harm the U.S. crypto sector.
Arthur Hayes: It Doesn’t Matter Who Wins—Bitcoin Will Ultimately Rise
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said in an interview that whether Trump or Harris wins the next U.S. presidential election is ultimately unimportant for the crypto industry. Although the industry has donated heavily to Trump, the amount is still insufficient to outweigh institutions like JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Citibank, and Goldman Sachs. Therefore, even if Trump wins, he may face the same challenges as during his first term: despite being able to make friendly remarks about crypto and attempt certain policies, nothing substantial can be achieved if the entire government apparatus remains opposed.
On Bitcoin and monetary policy, Hayes stated that both a Trump and a Harris administration will engage in money printing—albeit through different methods—so cryptocurrencies will rise eventually, though the path may be extremely bumpy.
Paradigm Survey: Harris Needs to Win Support from Crypto Community
According to a recent survey by crypto investment firm Paradigm, Vice President Harris may need to attract greater support from the crypto community to strengthen the Democratic Party’s chances in the November election.
The survey of 804 registered Democrats found that 13% of respondents had not yet decided whether to vote for Harris. Among undecided voters, 18% have invested in cryptocurrency, and 21% of crypto investors believe the Biden administration has been “too hostile” toward the industry.
Overall, the survey suggests that due to the Biden administration’s unfriendliness toward the crypto sector, a small portion of Democrats (1% to 2%) might lean toward Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Republican Senator Vivek Ramaswamy: Harris Will Embrace the Crypto Industry
U.S. Senator Vivek Ramaswamy predicts Harris will embrace Bitcoin and the crypto industry. Ramaswamy said: “I think this is good for the country... This shouldn’t be a partisan issue.”
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