Black Swan and $MAX: The Prelude to the End of High-FDV Crypto Dilemma
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Black Swan and $MAX: The Prelude to the End of High-FDV Crypto Dilemma
The next cycle will be one of real applications; the crypto industry has reached a stage where it can no longer rely solely on storytelling and high valuations to sell tokens.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsThe Pain of Crypto—The High FDV, Low Float Dilemma
The crypto industry is caught between two worlds—one slowly dying, the other not yet formed.
Almost without exception, tokens launched in 2024 share one common trait: extremely high FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation) with very low circulating supply. After TGE (Token Generation Event), these tokens continuously unlock, creating sustained selling pressure from newly released supplies. The high-FDV, low-float model has become a major pain point in the crypto industry and is widely seen as a key reason why this bull market has failed to truly take off.
In its May 24 research report titled "Observations and Reflections on High-Valuation, Low-Circulating Tokens", Binance pointed out that between 2024 and 2030, a total of $155 billion worth of tokens will unlock—excluding any potential future token issuances. Given this market structure, sustained price appreciation is nearly impossible without significant new capital inflows, which explains the widespread criticism of VC-backed coins with low float and high FDV.
A Hotcoin research report further noted that among the top 300 cryptocurrencies by market cap, 60 have an MC/FDV ratio (market cap to fully diluted valuation) below 0.5, accounting for 20%. Among them, 15 have an MC/FDV ratio under 0.2. Notably, tokens such as Worldcoin (WLD), Saga (SAGA), Ethena (ENA), and Starknet (STRK) have circulation rates below 10%.
These figures highlight the extreme challenges facing the current market, especially under the weight of high FDVs and low circulating supplies, making recovery and healthy development increasingly difficult.
As shown in the chart below, most tokens listed on Binance in 2024 had FDVs above $1 billion, with some exceeding $10 billion at launch. Nearly all of these new tokens have since declined. The prevailing understanding is that VCs and KOLs are dumping onto retail investors, who are now angrily abandoning these tokens in favor of meme coins, partly due to insufficient supply for meaningful price discovery.
(Source: @Ryanqyz_hodl)
Black Swan and $MAX
After months of market reflection on the wave of high-FDV, low-circulating tokens from May to August, new trends are emerging—visible in the TGE approaches of recent high-profile projects.
August 5—the "Black Swan" event—is destined to join March 12 ("312") and May 19 ("519") as a memorable day in Web3 history. On this day, MATR1X, a highly anticipated Web3 gaming platform, launched its native token $MAX on OKX at an opening price of $0.2, with a $160 million FDV and a circulating market cap of $25 million. Prior to this, MATR1X had been regarded by investment firms and KOLs as the leading project and bellwether for the current cycle of Web3 gaming. Launching at such a modest FDV shocked everyone. Reports suggest that the opening price was even lower than what many institutional investors had paid, sparking widespread discussion among global KOLs.
For those unfamiliar with MATR1X: it's a Web3 entertainment platform focused on developing and publishing games. Background highlights include a $20 million funding round (rumored to be $30 million, with $10 million undisclosed), backed by elite investors such as Foulis Ventures (lead investor in StepN), Hana Financial (a top South Korean conglomerate), OKX, Makers Fund (one of the U.S.'s top three gaming funds), SevenX (a leading Web3 gaming fund), and Amber (a top-tier market maker).
MATR1X’s first mobile shooter game, MATR1X FIRE, has surpassed 3 million downloads—all verified real users. According to Google Play, downloads are displayed as 1M+ (Google Play shows 1M+ for anything below 5M), while official Google Analytics data confirms over 3 million total downloads.
(Source: MATR1X official Twitter)
For such a high-caliber project with outstanding fundamentals and user metrics to begin trading at just $160 million FDV far exceeded market expectations.
High Hype and Massive Trading Volume
This launch strategy brought $MAX massive exposure, sparking discussions across Twitter and major communities. Daily trading volume on OKX consistently exceeded $100 million, placing $MAX in the top 4 on OKX’s popularity chart—just behind BTC, ETH, and SOL. Such attention for a new token underscores the market’s embrace of low-FDV models and traders’ long-standing frustration with high-FDV launches.
(Source: CoinMarketCap)
OKX’s Industry Resolve
This shift in market dynamics may also reflect the determination of major exchanges like OKX and Binance to reform the industry. On August 2, OKX’s founder publicly criticized current listing practices, pointing out that some token projects do nothing post-TGE but dump and sell. He stated that exchanges should not be complicit in enabling high-FDV, low-circulation projects and called for collective action to protect the market.
Just days later, $MAX listed on OKX with a $160 million FDV and massive trading volume—hardly coincidental. It’s clear that leading exchanges now recognize the high-FDV, low-float model is unsustainable.
Beyond OKX, Binance has also expressed support for small- and mid-sized crypto projects, inviting high-quality teams to apply through initiatives like Direct Listing, Launchpools, and Megadrops. The goal is to strengthen support for projects with strong fundamentals, organic communities, sustainable business models, and a sense of industry responsibility—thereby advancing the broader blockchain ecosystem.
Burning 200 Million $MAX Pre-Market
In addition to launching at an exceptionally low $160 million FDV, MATR1X executed another striking move—burning 200 million $MAX tokens four hours before trading began on August 5.
This decision puzzled many. Typically, such a bullish move would be announced post-market to boost price and confidence. However, given the Black Swan event on August 5, MATR1X likely aimed to strengthen market sentiment ahead of trading. The founder stated on Twitter that they believe MATR1X has self-sustaining capabilities and plan to maintain deflationary pressure through various mechanisms, actively reducing FDV.
Moreover, according to MATR1X’s official tokenomics page, the team and investor allocations have already burned 50 million tokens, with all investors and team members subject to a 12-month lock-up and a 5-year vesting schedule. Combined with the $160 million FDV launch, pre-market burn of 200 million MAX, team burn of 50 million, and support from 3 million game users, these actions demonstrate MATR1X’s long-term commitment—and signal that the era of high-FDV, low-float TGEs is beginning to crumble.
The Next Cycle Will Be About Real Applications
In Ryanqyz’s recent viral article "What Is Really Happening in the Blockchain Industry?", he offers a deep analysis of the current state and issues across all participants in the crypto space. He points out that VCs, projects, and market participants alike seem trapped in a cycle of prioritizing narrative over real-world application. Many projects attract attention through fabricated stories, then exit by selling tokens—making little distinction between VC tokens and meme coins.
Ryanqyz further argues that the next cycle will be defined by real applications. The crypto industry has reached a stage where it can no longer rely solely on storytelling and inflated valuations to sell tokens. Going forward, only projects capable of self-sustaining revenue and demonstrating genuine Web3 commercialization will succeed. Whether we like it or not, the era of broad-based market rallies may be over. Pioneering projects like MATR1X—actively exploring Web3 applications and rejecting high-FDV launches—deserve our attention and respect.
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