Arthur Hayes on the U.S. Election and Bitcoin: It Doesn't Matter Who Wins—Bitcoin Will Reach Hundreds of Thousands or Even Millions of Dollars
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Arthur Hayes on the U.S. Election and Bitcoin: It Doesn't Matter Who Wins—Bitcoin Will Reach Hundreds of Thousands or Even Millions of Dollars
The U.S. should weaken the dollar and ultimately buy bitcoin and gold, which would solve many problems.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Trista Kelley
Compiled by: TechFlow
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What is Trump's impact on cryptocurrency?
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Arthur Hayes discussed this issue in an interview, along with Gary Gensler and Wall Street’s infiltration of crypto.
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He also mentioned why Bitcoin’s price could reach $1 million.
Arthur Hayes’ first job was on Deutsche Bank’s trading floor in Hong Kong. In September 2008, the day he started, Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy. He was only 22 at the time.
The days of high-intensity trading and million-dollar bonuses came to an abrupt end.
Young traders like Hayes were weeded out by regulation, compliance departments, and a dull office culture.
Then he discovered cryptocurrency.
In an interview with DL News, he said: “When I read the Bitcoin whitepaper, it resonated with my true philosophy—things like the corrupt banking system and its absurdities.”
A decade passed—during which he co-founded the BitMEX cryptocurrency exchange, reached billionaire status, and later pleaded guilty in the U.S. and served probation—now the crypto industry is beginning to resemble the banking world he once left behind.
“It still has that energy from diverse people all over the world”—Arthur Hayes
Today, financial giants including BlackRock and Franklin Templeton offer retail investors cheap and secure access to crypto investments.
Fidelity wants to include Bitcoin in U.S. pension funds.
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Hayes believes the industry remains largely unchanged.
“It still has that energy from diverse people all over the world—some from finance, some from tech—who want something different,” Hayes said last week from his office in Singapore.
“They want uncapped returns, even though it’s extremely volatile and you can lose quickly if you’re not careful. But at least there’s a chance to generate extremely high product adoption or immense wealth.”
As a crypto OG, Hayes holds broad credibility.
He has also become one of the most influential and widely followed market commentators, covering crypto and beyond.
Ahead of Monday’s market crash, Hayes spoke with DL News about elections, the financial industry’s acceptance of crypto, and his views on Bitcoin’s price.
On the election
AH: They think Trump is right, so things will move faster under him. Whether it’s Trump or Harris, it doesn’t matter.
DLN: Why?
AH: Yes, crypto has donated a lot of money. But I don’t think the donations are enough to outweigh JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Citibank, and Goldman Sachs.
If you think about the staff in these institutions, they’re actually people from financial firms.
So, if Trump wins and tries to implement policies, it would be good—but I think he might face similar problems as during his first term.
You can make all these great promises and try to push policies through, but if all branches of government oppose them, nothing gets done.
On Bitcoin and monetary policy
AH: Whether it’s a Trump or Harris administration, they’ll print money. Their methods differ, but money will be printed.
Therefore, your crypto will go up—it may be very volatile, but ultimately, we know the trend.
On SEC Chair Gary Gensler
DLN: SEC Chair Gary Gensler seems like a big villain in the industry. Do you share that view?
AH: People confuse symptoms with the problem. You can listen to his lectures—he’s very smart. But when he’s in government, he performs poorly.
It’s purely political. You could replace him with someone else, but it wouldn’t make much difference. Gary Gensler isn’t the problem, nor is the SEC.
If the regulations you dislike remain, and your elected representatives choose to focus on other issues instead of creating a framework for crypto, firing Gary Gensler won’t change anything.
People are angry at Gary Gensler, but he’s actually irrelevant.
On the plan for a Bitcoin reserve
AH: I think it’s almost impossible, even if Trump wins.
You need a certain number of people voting for it, and if it negatively impacts the U.S. Treasury or the Fed, or affects the visibility of the U.S. bond market, it won’t happen.
DLN: Do you think it’s a good idea, even if it won’t happen?
AH: Oh, it’s a great idea. The U.S. should weaken the dollar and eventually buy Bitcoin and gold—that would solve many problems.
They’d weaken the dollar, and Bitcoin and gold would rise.
Do I think the U.S. government will actively try to acquire Bitcoin? Highly doubtful. They’ll buy gold before they buy Bitcoin.
But it’s the same trade, and that’s our motivation for doing it.
On BlackRock’s role in crypto
AH: The whole point of crypto is no gatekeepers.
BlackRock should be able to use Bitcoin, and someone in the Philippines without financial services should also be able to use crypto.
Is the incentive structure strong enough? Does the game theory behind blockchain operations and related mechanisms ensure against centralization? If centralization occurs, are there consequences?
I’ve written about whether the impact of passive investing will seep into crypto and lead to them controlling all Bitcoin, thereby rigidifying the network.
Theoretically, it could happen. But it’s still an open competitive landscape.
If you own a BlackRock product, you own a derivative of crypto, not crypto itself—BlackRock owns your crypto.
So, BlackRock products are attractive because they’re simple, but they’re not crypto.
On Bitcoin’s price
AH: Bitcoin’s price in this cycle will be extremely high—hundreds of thousands of dollars, possibly even $1 million.
There’s a massive amount of debt needing refinancing. We’re entering a period of significant change in the global monetary system.
We don’t know what it will look like, but those who gained the most over the past 80 years will strongly resist change.
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