Macro Research: Bitcoin Rallies Strongly, U.S. Stock Performance Could Be Key to Breaking Through 70,000
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Macro Research: Bitcoin Rallies Strongly, U.S. Stock Performance Could Be Key to Breaking Through 70,000
Investors should continue to monitor the future market, particularly the trend of U.S. stocks and their potential impact, while paying close attention to key events in the AI and Meme sectors.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Huobi Growth Academy
Over the past week, the market has begun a strong rebound. Will this rally turn into a reversal? Recently, U.S. economic data has gradually weakened, and calls for rate cuts are growing louder. Several Federal Reserve officials have hinted they are nearing a rate cut decision, though no specific timing has been confirmed. Ethereum spot ETFs may soon allow staking, Bitcoin is surging—testing the $65,000 level—and some altcoins have already outperformed the broader market. We believe Bitcoin has moved beyond its valuation floor, but it may next face headwinds from a potential downturn in U.S. equities.
Macroeconomic Environment
Trump’s Support Rises After Assassination Attempt
Former U.S. President Donald Trump survived a shooting during a campaign rally aimed at securing his return to the presidency by year-end, bringing him one step closer to the White House.
Source: The Economist
In recent years, Trump has consistently supported the crypto market, vowing that the U.S. must not let other countries—especially China—take leadership in cryptocurrency. This has raised market expectations for a more lenient regulatory environment in the U.S., while also sparking speculation over whether China might introduce further regulatory easing measures.
The U.S. Economy Awaits Direction
The U.S. economy is at an inflection point. According to the Atlanta Fed's GDP Now model estimate on July 10, the U.S. Q2 GDP annualized growth rate is projected at 2.0%. On one hand, the economy continues to expand, with GDP growth close to its potential rate, driven notably by strong investment activity. On the other hand, as American households exhaust their excess savings and high interest rates suppress consumption, consumer spending’s role as a key growth driver is clearly weakening. Overall, the U.S. economy awaits direction, but signs of cooling are intensifying.
Market Situation and Future Trends
This week, reduced selling pressure fueled a strong market rally. Bitcoin (BTC) exhibited particularly robust price action, lifting the broader altcoin market. On July 23, the potential approval of Ethereum spot ETFs could provide short-term sentiment support, pushing the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index into "Greed" territory.
Source: Coinglass
Bitcoin’s recent performance resembles that of the Nasdaq index, regaining relative strength. As we noted last week, once selling pressure eased, a sharp short-term rally followed. However, before actual rate cuts begin, U.S. stocks may decline and drag down the market. Therefore, we must closely monitor the trajectory of U.S. equities.
Source: Nasdaq Official Website
Promising Sectors
1) AI Sector
Highlight: WLD Delays Unlock Schedule
According to the Worldcoin Foundation, WLD tokens allocated to Tools for Humanity (TFH), the team behind Worldcoin, were originally set to begin linear daily unlocks starting July 24, 2024. However, TFH has now extended the vesting period for 80% of WLD held by team members and investors from three to five years.
Reason for Rebound:
The AI sector had previously experienced an oversold correction. With BTC and overall market sentiment recovering, WLD’s rapid rebound has helped reignite momentum across the sector, driving stronger performances from major tokens like TAO and NEAR.
2) Meme Coin Sector
Highlight: Ethereum Spot ETF Approval Imminent
The market anticipates that ETH spot ETFs may be approved by the SEC on July 23. Positioning within the Ethereum ecosystem ahead of this event could yield significant returns.
Recommended Tokens:
Etherfi: Etherfi’s Season 2 airdrop eligibility checker is now live. Season 3 will run from July 1 to September 14, distributing 25 million ETHFI tokens.
PEPE: Currently the most prominent meme coin in the ETH ecosystem, PEPE boasts a powerful community base and can be monitored as a major beta play on ETH.
User Watchlist
1) Twitter-Trending Tokens
$VANCE
J.D. Vance was once a vocal critic of Trump but later shifted to support Republican leadership. He officially accepted the vice-presidential nomination at the 2024 Republican National Convention, pledging loyalty to Trump. Vance first gained fame through his book *Hillbilly Elegy*, which was later adapted into a film. The memoir details his upbringing in a poor mountain region and offers insights into America’s social and economic challenges.
Additionally, Vance is regarded as a pro-crypto politician. While his recent financial disclosures do not show any crypto purchases or sales, in 2022 he disclosed holding between $100,000 and $250,000 worth of Bitcoin.
$ETHFI
The ether.fi Foundation announced it has published a document outlining current and future functionalities aimed at enhancing ETHFI token utility, market dynamics, and user engagement. Additionally, the foundation announced on X that Season 2 ETHFI claim is now live.
Ether.Fi allows users to stake while retaining control of their private keys. Deposits are restaked locally using Eigenlayer to support external systems such as rollups and oracles, thereby increasing returns for ETH stakers.
2) Trending DApps
Meet48
Meet48 Metaverse is a unique virtual idol creation platform integrating AI data models, dance choreography, idol song generation, and customizable virtual idol avatars. Users can create UGC content via AI tools and upload them to the platform to earn rewards. Moreover, MEET48 is a Web3- and AI-powered social metaverse incorporating music, songs, and dance. Here, users can interact with real-world idols, connect with like-minded friends, create their own Avatars, and nurture them into global superstars.
Summary
Over the past week, the market staged a strong rebound, with Bitcoin and Ethereum showing notable upward momentum. As U.S. economic data cools and calls for rate cuts grow louder, market anticipation for Federal Reserve policy shifts intensifies. The potential approval of Ethereum spot ETFs and the introduction of staking functionality have further boosted market sentiment. Bitcoin has broken through key resistance levels, and some altcoins have outperformed the broader market. However, future market movements will still depend heavily on U.S. equity trends and their potential spillover effects. In this macro context, developments in the AI and Meme sectors warrant close attention from investors.
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