Outlook for Q3 and Q4: BTC may return to 60K—prepare to accumulate tokens at lower prices
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Outlook for Q3 and Q4: BTC may return to 60K—prepare to accumulate tokens at lower prices
Long-term: Bullish; Current: Bearish.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: 0XKYLE
Compiled by: TechFlow
As you can see, the market is extremely volatile right now. The so-called "narratives" are actually just亮点 during uptrends, driven by shifts in liquidity. But in the current downtrend, these narratives disappear in less than a day—leaving people like me completely disoriented!
But honestly, I don’t mind much. In fact, I’m kind of relieved. Lower prices mean it’s a perfect time to step back, relax, and research which coins could be worth buying when liquidity inevitably returns—but will it really come back?
So today, I just want to jot down some of my thoughts.
Long-Term Thoughts
In the long run, I remain very bullish on crypto. I won’t repeat the usual lines about “revolutionary finance,” but I did write a solid tweet thread explaining my views—anyway, I believe that being in this industry makes sense not only from a “market cap” perspective but also as a career move.
Zooming into specific timelines, I’m cautiously观望 regarding how the market will perform in 2025. This is my weak spot in macroeconomics—I haven’t fully grasped this complex landscape. I understand the basics, but I lack concrete data to judge whether rate cuts are bullish or bearish (my initial thought is long-term bullish, short-term bearish), and I have no prior real-world experience with similar macroeconomic conditions to reference.
I’d like to say I’m bullish, but that’s more of a prayer than a rigorous argument. 2025 looks promising—if we assume Trump will win the presidency based on current Republican candidate odds—then following that logic, it suggests looser credit, higher market risk appetite, and most importantly, friendlier crypto policies (Trump recently said he wants “Bitcoin made in America!”).
The risks are: 1) If the Democratic candidate wins—they seem less favorable toward crypto; and 2) Even if Trump wins, it doesn’t guarantee everything will be fine—we might still face poor macroeconomic conditions, given stocks are at all-time highs and some alarming indicators are flashing red, unseen since 2008 (check out *The Big Short*).
Unfortunately, this long rant leads to only one conclusion: I don’t know! My baseline expectation is bullish for 2025, and that’s what I’m planning around: a Republican president, loose monetary policy, and an overall upward trend despite some bumps along the way.
Short-Term Thoughts
Given the bullish base case for 2025, what’s my view on the short term (monthly and weekly)? I think risk assets—including crypto—will look very strong in Q4 2025—but I don’t think crypto will perform well right now.
In fact, even though BTC rose from 53,000 to 58,000, I remain very bearish. I’ve been bearish since the FOMC meeting a few weeks ago, when BTC hit 72,000 but failed to break through, while equities reached new highs. Clearly, the peak bearish moment has passed; as GCR says: be most bearish at the top, less bearish at the bottom.
I’m still bearish, but relatively cautious—I bought significant spot exposure at the 53,000 level because those are typically good levels to accumulate. On my perpetual futures account, I’m still shorting some high-FDV tokens while hedging with some long ETH positions.
Where do I think this ends? Well, I think we’re closer to the “anger” phase of market sentiment (the tweet above was posted before the rise to 53,000); 53,000 is where people start getting angry, so another drop down to 40,000 makes sense to me.
I do expect a bounce in the 53,000–60,000 range; but I believe you should sell into any touch of 60,000. I can already imagine the scene—when 60,000 is reclaimed, everyone turning extremely bullish, shouting “I told you so” and “this was just a dip.”
Where could I be wrong?
If BTC goes up, then I’m wrong. Of course, that’s half-joking. If BTC regains and holds the 60,000–62,000 range, I’ll turn technically bullish; but more importantly, I’ll need to see altcoins react positively. I need to feel genuine market risk appetite before going fully bullish. Right now, these bounces (e.g., from 53,000 to 57,000) aren’t like the “risk-on” scenarios we saw in January or March—they’re more like dead cat bounces or liquidation-driven buying.
Still, if I’m wrong, I won’t worry too much—that’s exactly why I bought spot at 53,000! My allocation may be slightly below ideal, but that’s easy to adjust. I’d rather miss the exact bottom and buy later than be right here and overexposed on the long side.
What next?
To sum up:
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Long-term: Bullish
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Current: Bearish
I don’t know exactly where the market will bottom, but I lean toward Q3 or Q4, simply due to the “summer doldrums” narrative (which holds credibility, though I won’t elaborate). Simply put: summer slowdowns, low trading volumes, lingering sell pressure (like Mt. Gox and German government sales)—but by Q3/Q4, potential catalysts emerge: FTX distributions (rumored $16B?), ETH ETF approvals, and a potentially bullish Q4 setup (similar to what we saw in 2023).
So what now? Prepare for the return of risk-on conditions! To cut straight to the point—here are the themes I believe will perform exceptionally well when risk appetite returns:
ETH ETF and DeFi
Scroll Twitter for a few minutes and you’ll surely see posts about the “impact of the ETH ETF”—so I don’t need to explain why an ETH ETF is bullish. Some think it’ll be bearish because ETH has underperformed this year—but I believe past performance doesn’t dictate future returns.
If we re-enter a risk-on environment, the tailwinds from an ETF approval would be extremely bullish for me—simple as that.
RWA
Another narrative tied to ETH is “institutions are entering”—so tokens linked to this theme could perform strongly. Expect speculators to rush in searching for the next “BlackRock-linked RWA.”
Fundamentals
I’ll skip my usual long rant on this topic—I talk about it frequently on Twitter. Essentially, I believe tokens with real utility will outperform the strongest. We’ve already seen some on-chain tokens (like BANANA and ACX) shine; but the broader market hasn’t fully caught up yet.
Token Selection
This might be the part I’m most excited about—accumulating tokens at low prices! While I appreciate Jason Choi’s take that asset selection accounts for only 20% of returns, with timing the inflection point making up 80%, I still enjoy picking assets. I believe that selecting strong small-cap tokens can deliver returns far exceeding 20% (that 20% figure applies mainly to large players limited to investing only in the top 50 altcoins).
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