In a global sports mega-year, how should the broader sports sector in 2024 "mark the boat to find the sword"?
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In a global sports mega-year, how should the broader sports sector in 2024 "mark the boat to find the sword"?
This article aims to briefly review notable sports-related tokens, analyze the price trends of leading tokens in this sector, and attempt to uncover potential trading patterns behind this year's global sporting events—akin to "marking the boat to find a lost sword."
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Frank, Foresight News
2024 has been a landmark year for global sports events, ranging from the ongoing 2023 AFC Asian Cup (January 12 to February 10), to the European Championship—often dubbed the "Mini World Cup" (June 14 to July 14)—and the Paris Olympics opening in July (July 26 to August 11), all the way to the U.S. presidential election on November 5. Major sports and political events span the entire year.
In particular, the back-to-back European Championship and Olympic Games from June to August, as globally prominent international sporting events with immense international influence and fan bases, will undoubtedly bring significant attention and speculative momentum to related sports-sector tokens.
This article aims to briefly outline notable sports-related tokens and, by reviewing price trends of leading tokens during the 2021 European Championship and 2022 FIFA World Cup, attempt to uncover potential trading patterns behind this year’s global events—a form of “marking the boat” investment strategy.
Which Sports-Related Tokens Are Worth Watching?
“What rolls on the pitch isn’t a football—it’s gold.” Sports-related tokens have long been among the most cyclical and speculation-prone investment assets in the crypto world.
These can broadly be categorized into three types: sports blockchains (e.g., Chiliz, TOPGOAL), fan tokens for teams/celebrities (e.g., SANTOS, BAR, CITY), and prediction & betting-related tokens (sports NFTs are not covered in this article).
Sports Blockchains
Chiliz (CHZ)
Foremost is Chiliz (CHZ), a blockchain fintech provider for sports and entertainment. Chiliz has served as the foundational blockchain platform for numerous football clubs issuing fan tokens and launched Socios.com—an interactive rewards app tailored for fan engagement in the sports and entertainment sectors.
On Socios.com, fans purchase CHZ to exchange for a club’s fan token, gaining voting rights on club matters—even participating in management decisions (from jersey design to daily governance votes) or interacting directly with players.
Currently, CHZ has a market cap of approximately $880 million, making it the undisputed leader in the sports sector by market value.
TOPGOAL (GOAL)
TOPGOAL is a Web3 football metaverse platform where users can trade officially licensed digital player cards and participate in football games. It partners with renowned athletes and clubs to create new digital experiences and entertainment consumption models for stars, clubs, and fans alike.
Prominent players such as Del Piero, Michael Owen, Guti, and Rivaldo have already joined. GOAL is TOPGOAL’s governance token, with a market cap of only about $2 million at the time of writing.
Team / Celebrity Fan Tokens
Next are fan tokens issued on blockchains like Chiliz for various teams/clubs. Holders typically receive exclusive benefits, including voting privileges and access to exclusive club rewards.
As of writing, Chiliz has partnered with top-tier football clubs such as Manchester City, Arsenal, Barcelona, Atlético Madrid, Juventus, Roma, AC Milan, Inter Milan, and Paris Saint-Germain, launching a total of 63 team-specific fan tokens. Notable ones include:
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AC Milan Football Club Fan Token: AC Milan Fan Token (ACM)
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Tottenham Hotspur FC Fan Token: Tottenham Hotspur FC Fan Token (SPURS)
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Paris Saint-Germain Football Club Fan Token: Paris Saint-Germain Fan Token (PSG)
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Juventus Football Club Fan Token: Juventus Fan Token (JUV)
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FC Barcelona Football Club Fan Token: FC Barcelona Fan Token (BAR)
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Portugal National Football Team Fan Token: Portugal National Team Fan Token (POR)
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Atlético de Madrid Football Club Fan Token: Atletico de Madrid Fan Token (ATM)
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Inter Milan Football Club Fan Token: Inter Milan Fan Token (INTER)
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Mexican Football Club Fan Token: Mexican Football Club (SAN)
Additionally, major exchanges have collaborated with top global teams to issue fan tokens (mostly built on Chiliz). For example, LAZIO, SANTOS, and PORTO are widely regarded as part of the “Binance ecosystem,” issued on BNB Chain.
From a broader perspective, Binance has listed a total of 10 fan tokens so far, including (team-based, same below):
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Santos FC Fan Token: Santos FC Fan Token (SANTOS)
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S.S. Lazio (LAZIO)
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FC Porto Fan Token: FC Porto Fan Token (PORTO)
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FC Barcelona Fan Token: FC Barcelona Fan Token (BAR)
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Manchester City Fan Token: Manchester City Fan Token (CITY)
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Paris Saint-Germain Fan Token: Paris Saint-Germain Fan Token (PSG)
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Juventus Fan Token: Juventus Fan Token (JUV)
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AC Milan Fan Token: AC Milan Fan Token (ACM)
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Atletico de Madrid Fan Token: Atletico de Madrid Fan Token (ATM)
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AS Roma Fan Token: AS Roma Fan Token (ASR)
OKX has listed six fan tokens, including:
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Argentine Football Association Fan Token: Argentine Football Association Fan Token (ARG)
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Portugal National Team Fan Token: Portugal National Team Fan Token (POR)
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Flamengo Fan Token: Flamengo Fan Token (MENGO)
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Trabzonspor Fan Token: Trabzonspor Fan Token (TRA)
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Manchester City Fan Token: Manchester City Fan Token (CITY)
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Galatasaray Fan Token: Galatasaray Fan Token (GALFT)
Prediction & Betting Tokens
Beyond the above, demand for prediction and betting services often surges around major sports and political events—especially global spectacles like the World Cup, European Championship, and U.S. presidential elections.
Take Polymarket, the leading prediction market, for instance—its trading volume exceeded $50 million in January alone, setting a new monthly record.
Key drivers behind this surge included predictions on El Salvador’s presidential election, whether a spot Bitcoin ETF would be approved, and ongoing markets such as which team will win Euro 2024, who will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election, Federal Reserve rate cuts, and the Democratic nominee for the U.S. presidency.
However, Polymarket has not issued a token yet. Other platforms like Aver and BetDEX have shallow liquidity pools and also haven’t launched tokens.
Nevertheless, as the European Championship, Olympics, and U.S. election approach in the second half of the year, participating in respective betting pools could offer an enriching addition to one’s investment strategy.
The Historical Pattern of “Surge First, Then Crash”?
Looking back at historical price movements, we observe that ahead of major sporting events like the European Championship, sports-related tokens generally follow a “surge first, then crash” pattern. The timing and trajectory of these moves vary depending on specific circumstances.
Given that such events occur every four years—long intervals relative to the evolution of the crypto market—we’ll focus here on the most recent examples: the 2021 European Championship and the 2022 Qatar World Cup, using the flagship sports blockchain token CHZ and fan tokens SANTOS and PSG listed on Binance as case studies for a brief review.
2021 European Championship
The UEFA Euro 2020 tournament (held in 2021 due to pandemic delays) ran from June 12 to July 12, 2021.
Taking CHZ, the leading sports sector token, as an example, its secondary market performance four months before kickoff and throughout the tournament can be divided into roughly three phases:
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Four months pre-event: Gradual rise: Around February 12, CHZ began strengthening, rising from $0.30 on February 12 to a peak of $0.9449 on March 12—an increase of over 214% in just 30 days;
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Two months pre-event: Double top formation: After March 12, CHZ dropped to a low of $0.36 by April 16—over 60% decline from the peak—then rebounded to $0.84 on April 16, forming a double-top before resuming its downtrend;
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During the event: Sideways decline: One week before the June 12 opening, CHZ held relatively strong but sharply declined over 7% on opening day, then continued falling throughout the tournament, bottoming out at $0.178—down more than 80% from its four-month high;
Similarly, Paris Saint-Germain fan token PSG followed a comparable trajectory—showing signs of movement three months before the event, completing a full rally within about six weeks, then entering a prolonged downtrend, accelerating downward after the tournament began:
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Three months pre-event: Early surge: Around March 10, PSG spiked 52% in a single day, then rose from a low of $10.862 to a high of $59 by April 27—an increase of over 443% in 47 days;
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Two months pre-event: Peak and fall: From April 27 until just before the tournament, PSG steadily declined to $10.78—nearly returning to its starting point, down over 80% from its peak. On opening day, June 12, it plunged again, with volatility exceeding 10%;
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One month post-event: New highs: Curiously, after the tournament ended, PSG surged rapidly, climbing from $15 to $61.50 within a month—an increase of over 310%;
2022 Qatar World Cup
The 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar took place from November 20 to December 18, 2022.
Again using CHZ as a benchmark, its price behavior five months before kickoff and through the event can be broken into three phases:
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Five months pre-event: Short-term bottom: Around June 18, CHZ hit a short-term low of $0.0811, then entered a two-month gradual uptrend—from $0.0811 on June 18 to $0.265 on August 24, up over 226% in 66 days;
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Three months pre-event: Triple top formation: After peaking on August 25, CHZ created secondary peaks on September 23 and November 7, forming a triple-top pattern over the next three months;
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During the event: Continuous decline: One week before the November 20 opening, CHZ rose over 50% in five days—from $0.178 on November 14 to $0.275 on November 19—but then crashed, closing nearly 20% lower on opening day. Prices continued falling throughout the tournament, hitting a low of $0.1123 on December 17—down nearly 60% from the previous month’s peak;
Meanwhile, the “Binance-affiliated” fan token SANTOS started moving about four months before the event, formed a double top three months prior, then declined continuously, accelerating downward after the tournament began—following a similar “three-phase” pattern:
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Four months pre-event: Initial move: Around July 15, SANTOS showed unusual activity with 15% volatility, then entered a rapid one-month rally—from $3.82 on July 15 to $21.49 on August 19, up over 462% in 34 days;
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Three months pre-event: Double top: After peaking on August 19, SANTOS fell to $9.8—down over 50%—then rebounded to a new high of $22.67 on September 25, forming a double top;
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During the event: Steady decline: After reaching its peak on September 25, SANTOS declined steadily until the tournament start, losing over 50% in just a few days during the final fortnight, and closed nearly 20% lower on opening day, continuing to fall thereafter;
Summary
Overall, whether during the 2021 European Championship cycle or around the 2022 Qatar World Cup, sports blockchain tokens like CHZ tend to start moving 4–5 months before the event, surge rapidly within 1–2 months, gain over 200%, and often form at least a double-top pattern along the way.
Fan tokens like SANTOS follow a broadly similar path, with slight differences:
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Timing-wise, they tend to start about one month later (3–4 months pre-event), with the overall cycle shortened by roughly a month;
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In terms of gains, they are more leveraged, often surging 300%–400% or more, surpassing CHZ’s ~200% rallies;
However, as the European Championship and World Cup approach, early speculative capital tends to exit at peaks. These tokens often top out 2–3 months before kickoff and face sharp declines once the tournament begins.
From this perspective, with the 2024 global event cycle set to kick off in June, now is precisely the “marking the boat” launch window for the sports sector—offering highly relevant insights.
Thus, “buy the rumor, sell the news”—a timeless truth in investing—is almost a crypto trading iron law when applied to cyclical, forward-looking sectors like sports (around major event cycles) and their associated tokens.
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