Is the bull market's wave of sudden wealth about to arrive?

Author: Riyue Xiaochu

In a major bull market, the most explosive phase isn't about gains of 20% or 50%, nor even 2x to 5x increases. It's when assets surge 20x, 50x—this is when real fortunes are made.

And it's not just one sector—it's wave after wave across different sectors. As long as you're holding cash, eventually your coin will explode in value. If you’re lucky enough to catch two such waves, the returns become unimaginable.

You often hear people say, "The big one is coming?" Or see posts claiming, "It'll happen this April/May." So, is it really about to start?

To answer this, I’d like to analyze from the perspective of capital flow. The situation is changing—the environment is shifting, the battle between bulls and bears is evolving, and so are the players (whales). Simply copying past patterns or historical data won’t necessarily lead to success.

Capital flows and irrational human behavior are first principles. No matter how manipulators draw their charts or spread negative news, capital movement is real. Likewise, no matter what, humans can never fully overcome their weaknesses—they will always act irrationally. These two factors are like fundamental laws of physics: whether an apple falls on Newton’s head or someone else’s, whoever gets hit discovers gravity.

Therefore, let’s use capital flow as our lens to predict the next wave of wealth creation in the bull market. This surge mainly comes from three overlapping waves of capital inflow.

1. BTC Rotation Capital

A major altcoin rally usually follows a significant rise in BTC. There’s a broad market consensus: BTC goes up first, then alts take off. Beyond sentiment, a key driver is that profits taken from BTC begin rotating into altcoins. Imagine BTC reaching $100,000—its market cap would hit $2 trillion. Even if only 5%-10% of that capital rotates into alts, that’s still $100–200 billion flowing into smaller coins. Remember, markets get excited over just $1 billion in USDT minting—imagine $100 billion entering the space.

2. Market Missed-Out Capital

Before any major move, there’s often a period of consolidation. Many panic-sell and end up holding all stablecoins (USDT). When BTC starts rising again, these investors remain sidelined, too afraid to buy back in. But as prices keep climbing, this pent-up “missed-out” capital gradually re-enters the market. Given the size of the crypto ecosystem, hundreds of billions of dollars can flow back during a true bottom recovery.

3. Newcomer Capital

Once the first two waves kick in, certain coins start skyrocketing—creating breakout leaders. Think Doge and Shiba Inu in 2021. Those who were early often bring in friends and family. Back then, many of my friends only knew Bitcoin and Dogecoin—hadn’t even heard of Ethereum. New entrants typically start small, testing the waters. After seeing quick gains, they believe crypto really is a goldmine. Regretting their small initial bets, they pour more money in—racing into the market.

Understanding these three capital drivers gives us clarity on when the big wave arrives. And based on this logic, the massive bull run cannot happen yet.

First, regarding BTC rotation capital: BTC is still mid-cycle in its uptrend. Few holders are ready to rotate into alts at this stage. Moreover, this year’s rally has been largely driven by ETF inflows—and those institutional funds cannot easily shift into altcoins.

Second, missed-out capital: overall market positioning is already quite heavy. There isn’t a large pool of sidelined investors waiting to jump in.

So we must wait a bit longer. Don’t lose heart. Stay strong, fellow believers—we will ultimately reach the dawn of victory.