Bitget Research: Fed maintains expectation of three rate cuts this year, crypto market rallies across the board
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Bitget Research: Fed maintains expectation of three rate cuts this year, crypto market rallies across the board
In the past 24 hours, several new trending cryptocurrencies and topics have emerged in the market, which could very likely represent the next wealth-building opportunities.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Bitget Research
Summary
Over the past 24 hours, the Federal Reserve released its interest rate dot plot indicating three rate cuts in 2024, alleviating market concerns about potential rate hikes. This was widely interpreted as a positive signal, triggering a strong rebound in the cryptocurrency market.
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Wealth-generating sectors include: Public blockchain sector, RWA sector;
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User's most searched tokens & topics: Polyhedra Network, BaseTools, RWA sector, Bearchain;
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Potential airdrop opportunities: GRVT, BWB;
Data collection time: March 21, 2024, 4:00 (UTC+0)
I. Market Environment
Early this morning, the Federal Reserve held the 2024 FOMC meeting. According to the interest rate dot plot released during the meeting, most Fed members expect three rate cuts in 2024. This information was widely seen as a dovish signal, leading to a strong rebound in the crypto market—BTC rose approximately 8.3% at its peak, and ETH surged around 9.8%.
Regarding BTC ETFs, today’s data shows that BTC ETFs continue to experience net outflows, with approximately $260 million in net outflows—the third consecutive day of net outflows. BTC price has now recovered about 17.7% from its all-time high of $73,000. After the Fed's dovish announcement, BTC saw a rebound. If BTC ETFs can reverse the trend from net outflows to sustained net inflows before the halving event, it could potentially spark a new bullish cycle.
II. Wealth-Generating Sectors
1) Sector Movement: Public Blockchain Sector (BTC, ETH, SOL)
Main Reason: Early this morning, the Federal Reserve announced expectations for three rate cuts in 2024, easing some market concerns and providing short-term liquidity relief. As the three largest public blockchains in the crypto industry, BTC, ETH, and SOL are increasingly influenced by macroeconomic policies as traditional finance becomes more integrated into crypto. The Fed’s dovish signal triggered a collective rebound among major blockchain assets. However, whether this rally sustains depends on future influencing factors.
Price Performance: BTC up ~8.2% in 24 hours, ETH up ~11.5%, SOL up ~13.2%;
Factors Influencing Future Trends:
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BTC ETF Capital Flows: BTC ETFs have shown three consecutive days of net outflows, while BTC has recovered about 17.7% from its peak of $73,000. If BTC ETF inflows improve and remain consistent following the Fed’s decision, BTC may reverse its downtrend before the halving and enter a strong uptrend pushing toward new highs.
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ETH ETF Approval Prospects: Whether the ETH ETF gains approval by May is the biggest factor affecting ETH’s future trajectory. Market speculation will center around developments related to ETH ETF approval—for example, whether the SEC classifies ETH as a security. These catalysts could increase ETH’s price volatility, so investors should closely monitor news developments and manage risk exposure accordingly.
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Solana Ecosystem Sustainability: The Solana ecosystem boom has directly increased demand for SOL, driving its price higher. However, rapid wealth creation is often followed by swift profit-taking. The key factor for SOL’s future performance lies in whether the Solana ecosystem can retain capital attracted during this growth phase. Investors should monitor overall TVL within the Solana ecosystem and track whether innovative applications continue to emerge.
2) Sector Movement: RWA Sector Leaders (ONDO, CFG)
Main Reason: BlackRock recently filed documents with the U.S. SEC proposing to collaborate with Securitize, a digital asset tokenization firm, to launch the BlackRock USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund. This marks BlackRock’s first foray into asset tokenization, signaling significant progress in real-world asset (RWA) tokenization.
Price Performance: ONDO up ~46% in 24 hours;
Factors Influencing Future Trends:
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Ondo’s Ongoing RWA Product Updates with BlackRock: Ondo Finance has tokenized BlackRock’s short-term U.S. Treasury ETF—iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ: SHV)—creating the OUSG (U.S. Treasuries) product, which is currently the main contributor to Ondo Finance’s TVL. OUSG is currently priced at $105.47 with an annualized yield of 5.17%. Investors should watch for further collaboration updates and new product launches between Ondo and BlackRock, which could positively impact the ONDO token.
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News Flow Impact: Ondo’s official website lists its ecosystem partners, including major traditional financial institutions such as Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, Ankura Trust, Clear Street, and NAV Consulting, particularly in liquidity, custody, and other critical areas. ONDO led the rally following BlackRock-related news. Going forward, investors should keep a close eye on developments from traditional financial institutions, given their strong correlation with ONDO.
3) Sector to Watch: Cross-chain Protocols (AXL, RUNE)
Main Reason: A common challenge across the crypto industry is fragmented liquidity across different blockchains. As crypto gains broader mainstream attention, solving liquidity silos has become a key industry focus. Axler and RuneChain are both leading solutions offering cross-chain liquidity, gaining recognition from the market and capital.
Specific Token List:
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AXL: Axelar functions like a "universal relay chain," verifying and transmitting messages through its own L1 network. It has launched Satellite, a cross-chain transfer product demo enabling asset transfers across multiple EVM chains. The recent strong rebound in AXL suggests capital is aggressively accumulating positions. Investors may consider monitoring and gradually building positions during dips.
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RUNE: THORChain enhances cross-chain liquidity and reduces reliance on centralized exchanges and third parties in DeFi. It enables cross-chain swaps and yield generation across major assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Due to its unique characteristics, RUNE can be viewed as a leveraged exposure to BTC or ETH and may serve as a strategic allocation in diversified portfolios.
III. User Search Trends
1) Popular DApps
Polyhedra Network (ZK): A Web3 infrastructure project and interoperability protocol enabling cross-chain transfers of NFTs and tokens. Backed by top-tier investment firms including Foresight Ventures, Binance Labs, and OKX Ventures, the project has launched on Bitget LaunchPool, where users can stake BGB and USDT to earn over 60% APR.
2) Twitter
BaseTools (BASE): A Telegram bot project deployed on Base. Base is a Layer 2 network developed by Coinbase. Recently, meme coin deployments and wealth effects on the Base chain have started showing signs of momentum, indicating increasing capital inflow into the Base ecosystem. In the near future, 1–2 prominent meme coins may emerge on Base and list on major exchanges. As a TG bot, BaseTool has captured early traffic and is currently trending.
3) Google Search & Regional Trends
Global Trends:
(1) FOMC Meeting (Event)
Yesterday’s Federal Reserve interest rate meeting concluded with Powell’s “dovish” remarks, sparking rallies across crypto, equities, bond, and commodity markets—a classic “when the dollar falls, everything rises” scenario. Key takeaways from the meeting: 1. Maintaining the interest rate range at 5.25%-5.5%, marking the peak of this rate cycle; 2. Three rate cuts expected this year; 3. Preventing reserve shortages, QT (quantitative tightening) will be reduced soon.
Overall, the meeting was positive for risk assets. The crypto market saw a sharp rebound, with core assets like BTC and ETH rising over 10%. Macro policy support continues to underpin crypto valuations, and the bull market outlook remains intact.
Regional Search Trends:
(1) High enthusiasm in Asia for trending sectors such as RWA
Asian regions show strong interest in current hot projects. Yesterday, the RWA sector surged, led by ONDO, generating significant attention across Asia. Other RWA projects popular among Asian users include MKR, MPL, and CFG—worth continued monitoring.
(2) Certain projects appearing in multiple regional search trends
Bearchain (DApp) appeared in search trends in countries such as the U.S. and Canada. The project announced a $69 million airdrop this year, with a valuation of $150 million, backed by top-tier investors including OKX and Polychain. The token has not yet been launched, offering early interaction opportunities for potential airdrops.
IV. Potential Airdrop Opportunities
[GRVT] Decentralized exchange with clear airdrop opportunity
GRVT (Gravity) is an institutional-grade, trustless cryptocurrency trading infrastructure built by professionals from technology and financial markets. Gravity aims to create a platform where traders can enjoy fully private, regulated (KYC and AML), and self-custodied trading environments.
GRVT has secured solid funding totaling $9.3 million from renowned investors including Delphi Digital, ABCDE Capital, and Folius Ventures. Phase 1 is currently live, with a Phase 2 planned, using an engagement + trading-based points reward system.
How to Participate: (1) Register a personal or enterprise account; (2) Complete tasks such as following project Twitter accounts on the website; (3) Activate BOX to obtain platform NFTs and qualify for airdrops.
[BWB] Bitget Wallet’s upcoming platform token with substantial potential airdrop
Bitget Wallet is a Web3 wallet with strong funding, a large global user base (over 19 million users), and ranks among the top 5 globally in total wallet downloads—making it a leading player in the wallet niche and implying a high valuation.
Recently, Bitget Wallet announced its token airdrop plan: distributing BWB points to users of wallets such as MetaMask and Phantom.
How to Participate: Addresses that previously interacted on-chain can check eligibility via the link: https://web3.bitget.com/en/bwb-airdrop?open_in_browser=true
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