Foresight Ventures: Restaking sector remains hot, MOVE language emerges
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Foresight Ventures: Restaking sector remains hot, MOVE language emerges
Institutional crypto investment products see significant net outflows, with major funds accelerating withdrawals.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Mike
A. Market Outlook
1. Macro Liquidity
Monetary liquidity has deteriorated. The Federal Reserve's latest meeting kept rates unchanged, dashing March rate-cut expectations. The federal funds rate target range remains at 5.25–5.50%. Since the last hike in July 2023, the Fed’s policy rate has stayed at a 22-year high. Banks are beginning to face stress, and multiple signals suggest liquidity risks may erupt soon. The U.S. dollar index turned positive while U.S. equities plunged, registering their largest drop in six months. The crypto market followed suit with declines.
2. Overall Market Performance
Top 100 gainers by market cap:
BTC rebounded after oversold conditions this week, with altcoins showing strong activity. Market focus centered on restaking and SUI.
1. JUP: A Solana-based trading platform similar to 1INCH+GMX, aggregating 60% of Solana’s trading volume, though it is not yet dominant in spot trading. Recently listed on major exchanges, its market cap now exceeds Uniswap.
2. PENDLE: A leading interest rate derivatives protocol benefiting from the restaking narrative, experiencing rapid TVL growth. Eigenlayer, the leading restaking protocol, is about to launch an airdrop; annualized yields for restaked ETH protocols could reach 50%, attracting large DeFi players. Other potential airdrop candidates include Ether.fi, Swell, Puffer, Renzo, and Eigenpie.
3. TAO: A PoW-based AI compute leader within the Polkadot ecosystem. A new proposal suggests issuing sub-tokens for each subnet. Recently, Vitalik Buterin highlighted TAO as a promising example of Crypto-AI integration.
3. BTC Market Analysis
1) On-chain Data
BTC’s price movement mirrors previous halving cycles. The true average market price stands at $33,000. Historically, during bull runs, prices often retest cost basis as support. This phenomenon is partly due to significant redemptions from Grayscale’s GBTC product. As a closed-end trust fund, GBTC accumulated 660,000 BTC in 2021. Since transitioning, 110,000 BTC have been redeemed from the GBTC ETF, creating substantial market headwinds.
Stablecoin market cap increased 0.6% week-on-week. In Q4 2023, Tether—the parent company of USDT—reported $2.8 billion in profit, its highest quarterly earnings ever. Tether’s total profit for 2023 reached $6.2 billion.
The long-term MVRV-ZScore indicator, based on overall market cost basis, reflects aggregate profitability. Readings above 6 signal tops; below 2 indicate bottoms. The MVRV has dropped below key level 1, meaning holders are generally underwater. The current reading is 1.40, suggesting early recovery.
Institutional crypto investment products saw significant net outflows, indicating accelerating withdrawal of institutional capital.
2) Futures Market
Funding rates: Rates were normal this week, reflecting neutral market sentiment. Rates between 0.05–0.1% suggest excessive long leverage, signaling short-term tops; rates between -0.1–0% indicate heavy short leverage, pointing to short-term bottoms.
Open Interest: BTC open interest declined this week, indicating pullback by major players.
Long/Short Ratio: 1.5, indicating normal sentiment. Retail sentiment often acts as a contrarian indicator: below 0.7 indicates fear; above 2.0 indicates greed. Due to high volatility, this metric has weakened predictive power.
3) Spot Market
After a sharp drop, BTC bounced forming a right shoulder pattern. Monthly chart resembles June 2019, suggesting Q1 will likely be dominated by consolidation. Current U.S. fundamentals do not support an early or rapid rate cut. Whether it comes in March or May, as long as the direction is clear, some pullbacks before the bull run are expected.
B. Market Data
1. Total Value Locked (TVL) Across Chains
2. TVL Distribution by Chain
This week, total TVL stood at $56.4 billion, up $2.1 billion (3.9%). BTC slightly rebounded above $43,000. Major chains showed mixed performance: ETH and ARB dipped under 1%, BSC and TRON rose ~1%, SOLANA surged 17%, while SUI led with a 26% weekly increase—up 104% month-to-date.
3. Protocol-Level TVL by Chain
1) Ethereum TVL Overview
2) BSC TVL Overview
3) Polygon TVL Overview
4) Arbitrum TVL Overview
5) Optimism TVL Overview
6) Base TVL Overview
7) Solana TVL Overview
4. NFT Market Data
1) NFT-500 Index
2) NFT Market Overview
3) NFT Marketplace Share
4) NFT Buyer Analysis
NFT markets fell sharply this week, with floor prices of all blue-chip projects declining. MAYC dropped 8%, BAYC down 7%, Azuki down 10%, and Pudgy Penguins, LilPudgys, and Milady each fell around 20%. Trading volume also dropped ~30%. Both first-time buyers and repeat purchasers declined, reflecting extremely bearish market sentiment.
5. Latest Project Fundings
6. Post-Investment Updates
1) Ion Protocol – DeFi
Ion Protocol launched a Staking and Restaking Ecosystem Dashboard to help users better understand LSTs, LRTs, and other DeFi expansion protocols.
For more details: https://ionprotocol.notion.site/ab5a83ceb5d84770829d1a03be4630fb?v=dfe9975fee3c47b09c783557bf67f4dc
2) Engine of Fury – GameFi
Engine of Fury has released its Alpha gameplay, launching a one-week rollout from February 29 to March 6. Participants can earn $FURY token allocations and NFT rewards. Full game release is expected in the second half of the year.
The project has partnered with over 250 Web3 KOLs, reaching over 15 million followers, and collaborated with several esports stars with over 5 million combined followers.
Engine of Fury currently has 150,000 community members. Popular Twitter posts have reached 200,000 views, while top TikTok videos have exceeded 8 million views.
3) Node Guardians – Infrastructure
Node Guardians’ first Hacker House will take place in Denver from February 23 to March 4, having recruited and supported eight hackers so far.
[Disclaimer] Markets involve risk; invest with caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Readers should consider whether any opinion, view, or conclusion expressed herein aligns with their individual circumstances. Investment decisions are your own responsibility.
NFTFundingVRSolanaWeb3TrustAirdropETFStakingPoWPublic ChainGameFiStablecoinGamePolygonDataDerivativesOptimismArbitrumCORETetherTronDashAzukiForesight VenturesGMXBAYCMAYCTwitterFederal ReserveGBTCFuturesPolkadotUSDTUnited StatesIndexInfrastructure1INCHUNIFunding RateGrayscalePendleTikTokTakiRENEcoDIARenPudgy PenguinsBaseKinSTEMHTProtoEigenLayerEther.FiSuiIon ProtocolEigenpie
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