2024 Crypto Market Outlook: BTC ATH Is Now Consensus, Solana May Outperform Ethereum
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2024 Crypto Market Outlook: BTC ATH Is Now Consensus, Solana May Outperform Ethereum
Read and summarized 13 key insights from the 2024 outlooks of 21 institutions.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Gwen, Youbi Capital
The SEC's approval of a spot BTC ETF gave 2024 a strong start, making this year a significant milestone for the industry. Let’s welcome this year full of innovation and growth, looking forward to more breakthroughs and broader blockchain adoption.
We pay tribute to and sincerely thank the following organizations for their contributions: Hashed, Coinbase, a16z, Nansen, Delphi Digital, Messari, Gemini, Bitcoin Suisse, Outlier Ventures, Pantera Capital, VanEck, Bitwise, The Block, Crypto.com, JP Morgan, Forbes, ETC Group, CoinFund, Swissborg, Spartan, Fidelity.
We reviewed the 2024 outlooks from these 21 firms and summarized 13 key insights:
1) New all-time highs (ATH) for BTC are widely expected. Some institutions have made price predictions: Gemini forecasts a 123% increase, Bitwise expects prices above $80K, and ETC Group anticipates surpassing $100K.
2) The ordinals and inscriptions boom at the end of 2023 not only boosted the BTC ecosystem but also revived the NFT market. The BTC ecosystem remains promising in 2024, with asset issuance protocols, BTC Layer 2 solutions, and cross-chain bridges accelerating development. More dApps—such as DeFi and stablecoins—are expected to emerge on Bitcoin.
3) EIP-4844 and Layer 2 upgrades bring renewed hope for Ethereum, while restaking will be another major narrative this year, potentially reigniting its DeFi ecosystem. JP Morgan and The Block believe that after the Cancun upgrade, Ethereum will firmly maintain its No. 1 position.
4) From a technical standpoint, modular architecture and zk technology are the most anticipated innovations of the year, and the data availability (DA) layer will see intense competition.
5) More than one institution believes Solana has the potential to outperform Ethereum (e.g., Delphi Digital and VanEck), with Firedancer’s launch on Solana mainnet being particularly noteworthy. Competition among other Layer 1 blockchains remains fierce and opinions vary, including Cosmos, Avalanche, and others.
6) DeFi discussions center around DEXs, LSDfi, restaking, and LRTfi. DEXs are expected to recover and challenge CEX dominance, possibly reshaping the centralized exchange landscape. Hybrid models combining DEX and CEX features may attract greater attention, with some institutions highlighting intent-based architectures for improved user experience. Solana’s DeFi ecosystem is also viewed positively.
7) At least one million-user-scale hit game is expected to emerge this year. Major Web2 companies transitioning into crypto, 3A games, and AI-driven narratives will launch in 2024, and fully on-chain games will make significant progress. Meanwhile, gaming-specific infrastructure such as gaming chains deserves close attention. However, few games currently avoid relying on economic incentives to attract users, with airdrops remaining a common tactic. Additionally, several blockchains will focus on building gaming ecosystems, including Avalanche and TON.
8) The integration of AI and Web3 is a key narrative for 2024. AI will permeate all dApp domains, with AI+DePIN being the hottest topic, followed by AI agents, AI services, and AI data applications.
9) DePIN will exhibit a positive flywheel effect during the bull market.
10) The term "consumer app" has largely replaced "SocialFi", and at least one breakout consumer application is expected this year. Opinions differ on the ideal form: most institutions expect tokenized social products to become mainstream; many believe established deSoc projects will continue gaining traction; a few suggest new opportunities in advertising markets or predictive products becoming killer apps.
11) As regulatory frameworks become clearer this year, more traditional financial institutions will experiment with tokenization, bringing institutional attention to the RWA sector. DeFi and TradFi will begin bridging, with stablecoin payments finding broader use cases—more fiat-backed stablecoins like euro-pegged versions will enter public view—and oracles regaining user interest.
12) We will see more traditional corporations and celebrities launching NFT products. NFTfi may turn around, with BRC-20 assets merging with NFTs, and Solana’s NFT market could emerge as a dark horse.
13) As gateways to application traffic, wallets will face renewed competition. Exchanges will continue expanding their wallet offerings, while account abstraction (AA) wallets will deliver superior user experiences.
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