TechFlow, September 2 — According to Jinshi Data, a CICC research report stated that in the short term, if interest rates are cut while U.S. inflation faces significant upward pressure, economic recovery and rising inflation could accelerate, leading to a bull steepening in short-term Treasuries and a bear steepening in long-term ones. The 10-year yield may rise to around 4.8% within this year, and the ongoing wave of bond issuance and tightening liquidity over the next one or two months could speed up this process. In the long term, if fiscal dominance gradually takes hold over the next one to two years, the central tendency of the U.S. Treasury yield curve may be generally lowered. Specifically, short-term rates would decline with rate cuts; monetary policy could also directly (via QE) or indirectly (by easing financial regulation) stimulate demand for long-dated bonds, thereby suppressing term premium. However, it should be noted that keeping rates low despite economic recovery may lead to a持续抬升 in the inflationary center.
Risk Disclosure: This website's content is not investment advice and offers no trading guidance or related services. Per regulations from the PBOC and other authorities, users must be aware of virtual currency risks. Contact us / support@techflowpost.com ICP License: 琼ICP备2022009338号
