HTX DeepThink: Weak demand in U.S. and Japanese long-term bond auctions sparks liquidity concerns, Bitcoin remains strong
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HTX DeepThink: Weak demand in U.S. and Japanese long-term bond auctions sparks liquidity concerns, Bitcoin remains strong
HTX Research analyst Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) noted in this column that last week's long-term government bond auctions in the US and Japan both saw weak demand, pushing US 20-year Treasury yields above 5% and Japan's long-term interest rates to a 25-year high, fueling market concerns over global liquidity tightening. However, the US Treasury continues primarily raising funds through 3–6 month T-Bills, mainly draining money from money market funds rather than risk assets; the Fed can also pause balance sheet reduction or activate repo facilities at any time, limiting pressure on risk assets. As a result, Bitcoin has shown strong resilience: spot ETFs continue to see modest net inflows, over 70% of on-chain Bitcoin has remained dormant for more than six months, exchange balances keep declining, and buyers from Asia and the Middle East are accumulating during dips. Even if net US debt issuance rises to $1.25 trillion between July and September, heavy short-end issuance combined with repo backstops reduces direct drain risks to high-beta assets. Passive ETF holdings and "hard supply" dispersing selling pressure, together with expectations of dollar depreciation, keep Bitcoin relatively strong. Note: The content of this article is not investment advice, nor does it constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation regarding any investment product.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsTechFlow news, on May 27, HTX Research analyst Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) pointed out in this column that last week's long-term government bond auctions in the United States and Japan both saw weak demand. U.S. 20-year Treasury yields surged above 5%, while Japan's long-term interest rates hit a 25-year high, fueling market concerns about tightening global liquidity. However, the U.S. Treasury is still primarily raising funds through 3–6 month T-Bills, mainly draining money from money market funds rather than risk assets. The Federal Reserve can also pause balance sheet reduction or activate repo facilities at any time, limiting pressure on risk assets.
Bitcoin has therefore shown strong resilience: spot ETFs continue to see modest net inflows, over 70% of Bitcoin on-chain has been held for more than six months, exchange balances keep declining, and buyers from Asia and the Middle East are accumulating during dips. Even if net U.S. Treasury financing rises to $1.25 trillion between July and September, heavy short-end issuance combined with repo backstops reduces direct drain pressure on high-beta assets. Passive holdings via ETFs and widely distributed "hard coins" help disperse selling pressure, and together with expectations of dollar depreciation, Bitcoin remains strong.
Note: The content of this article is not investment advice, nor does it constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation regarding any investment product.
