TechFlow news, July 6, according to Chaoxiang Research, JPMorgan's latest Global Semiconductor Weekly Report pointed out that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 88% in the second quarter, marking the strongest single-quarter performance in the index's history, but the institution judged that this rally is difficult to sustain, unless earnings materialize or the growth rate of cloud providers' capital expenditure truly slows down. Position data shows that momentum factor holdings have fallen 17% from their June highs, and after crowded longs in hardware semiconductors outperformed crowded shorts by nearly 40 percentage points in June, continuous net selling has appeared in July, with the overall position percentile of US stocks falling from the 60th percentile to the 40th percentile within a month.
The derivatives trading desk rarely issued a short volatility strategy targeting memory, optical communication, and semiconductor equipment, buying two-month puts and selling six-month calls. At the individual stock level, buy-side modeling of ASML's 2028 earnings per share continues to be higher than the sell-side, and JPMorgan simultaneously raised its global memory capital expenditure forecast to $450 billion, reiterating Tokyo Electron as the top pick.
