TechFlow reports, June 29, according to a post by Galaxy Digital Head of Research Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins), Galaxy Research has lowered the probability of the CLARITY Act passing within 2026 from 60% to 50%, primarily due to the continuing narrowing of the Senate schedule, rather than a deterioration in the bill's substantive content.
Since the bill passed the Senate Banking Committee (15 to 9) on June 1, it has been placed on the Senate Legislative Calendar as No. 423, but no voting date has been set yet, and the text reconciliation work between the Banking Committee and the Agriculture Committee is still proceeding behind the scenes.
Regarding schedule competition, the reauthorization of FISA Section 702, the FY2027 NDAA National Defense Authorization Act, the SAVE Act Voter ID Act, and Trump's refusal to sign the housing bill that has passed both chambers with overwhelming support conditional on the SAVE Act, are all vying for limited Senate agenda time.
Alex Thorn pointed out that Senate Majority Leader Thune needs to announce the voting time by early July at the latest, otherwise the bill will be postponed to September, at which point it will face midterm election political pressure. If the schedule is announced within two weeks, the probability of passage will rebound to above 60%; if silence continues until mid-July, the probability will be lowered further.
