TechFlow News, June 29, according to TechFlow Research, the Goldman Sachs Asia Equity Strategy Team pointed out in its second-half outlook report that behind the strong performance of Asian stock markets in the first half lies extreme structural divergence.
The MXAPJ Index rose 21% in the first half, but 96% of the gains were captured by 8 stocks, with tech stocks in South Korea and Taiwan driving the entire rally. Excluding these two markets, the rest of Asia fell 9%. Japan was similar, with the Nikkei 225 rising 38% and the TOPIX Index rising only 16%.
The key lies in earnings growth rate. Goldman Sachs expects MXAPJ earnings per share to grow 60% by 2026, with South Korea contributing 320% and Taiwan contributing 48%, while ASEAN and Australia only have single-digit growth. This is the fundamental reason why South Korea rose 119% and Taiwan rose 56%.
The chip supply-demand gap is the biggest variable. Goldman Sachs estimates that global computing demand will grow 24 times by 2030, but memory chip supply cannot keep up. Record gaps in DRAM and NAND have already appeared in 2025 and will expand further by 2027. Supply-demand imbalance drives up chip prices, and profits grow even faster than prices.
The macro environment is also improving. Easing geopolitical risks drive oil prices down, and Goldman Sachs lowered its Q4 Brent crude forecast from $90 to $80. Goldman Sachs expects global GDP q-o-q annualized growth rate to return to 2.6% in the second half, with China reaching 4.7%.
Goldman Sachs maintains six overweight directions: AI hardware supply chain, power energy security, capital-intensive industries, space economy, US reindustrialization, and China investment opportunities. In terms of allocation, South Korea, Taiwan, China A-shares, and Japan are all overweight, with an MXAPJ target of 1080 points, corresponding to 25% total return.
Goldman Sachs' conclusion is clear: 80% of returns in Asian markets come from earnings growth, and in the second half, investors should continue to hold onto hardware and chip winners that have already risen, rather than chasing catch-up gains in lagging sectors.
⚠️ The above is compiled from Goldman Sachs' public research report content and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risks, entry requires caution.
