TechFlow News, March 29: Garrett Jin, agent of the “1011 Insider Whale,” stated that the U.S. military’s ground warfare plan has been exposed. Should tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalate, the Federal Reserve could face a threefold policy conflict—balancing inflation control, financial stability, and fiscal financing—leading it to adopt a “financial repression” policy path. This would involve maintaining relatively stable interest rates while releasing implicit liquidity to support Treasury financing and the banking system. Specifically, the Fed might adjust its policy guidance, relax the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) constraint, optimize risk-weighting configurations, and introduce emergency liquidity facilities to steer funds toward the Treasury market.
If tensions ease in the short term, inflation and oil prices may decline temporarily, creating room for a recovery in risk assets. However, if the conflict intensifies further, global markets could undergo structural divergence—pressuring the banking system, weakening the U.S. dollar, and lowering real Treasury yields. Garrett Jin emphasized that the true critical risk signal lies in shifting demand dynamics for U.S. Treasuries. Against this backdrop, the pricing logic for risk assets—including crypto assets—may be fundamentally reshaped, with macro-level liquidity conditions becoming the dominant variable.
