TechFlow News: On January 31, according to CoinDesk, as the U.S. Congress failed to complete the full legislative process for the appropriations bill, the U.S. government is expected to enter a short-term, partial shutdown starting Saturday Eastern Time. However, this event also highlights prediction markets’ sensitivity to “definition precision” in contracts: prediction contracts on Polymarket and Kalshi regarding whether the U.S. government will shut down diverge due to differing trigger-condition definitions. On Polymarket, the relevant contract shows an ~88% probability of a shutdown, whereas a similar contract on Kalshi shows a significantly higher ~93% probability. This discrepancy may stem from certain contracts using an official announcement by the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) as the settlement criterion—even a partial shutdown would qualify as fulfillment. This incident underscores how highly sensitive prediction markets are—especially concerning macro-level events—to contract trigger conditions, the designated official authority for confirmation, and timing. Contract details themselves have thus become a critical factor influencing odds.
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