Founder Securities: The market prices in no Fed rate cut in January, with the earliest easing possibly starting in June
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Founder Securities: The market prices in no Fed rate cut in January, with the earliest easing possibly starting in June
According to Jinshi Data, Fangzheng Securities' research report stated that December's non-farm data showed mixed signals. The U.S. labor market remains on a moderate downtrend overall, but the marginal improvement in unemployment rate provides the Federal Reserve with more reasons to stay cautious in January. Combined with the possibility that the Supreme Court may soon declare IEEPA tariffs unconstitutional, this could be short-term positive for U.S. equities and the dollar, while negative for Treasuries. Key indicators such as non-farm payrolls, job vacancy rate, and wage growth suggest continued relative weakness in the U.S. labor market in December; however, the slight decline in unemployment rate stands out as one of the few bright spots. Based on rate futures and Treasury movements, markets now price in no Fed rate cut in January, with the first cut potentially delayed until June at the earliest. Meanwhile, if the Supreme Court rules IEEPA tariffs unconstitutional, economic outlook could see marginal improvement and inflationary pressure ease, though fiscal deficits may widen further. Under the combination of a Fed in no rush to cut rates and cooling tariff tensions, short-term Treasuries face multiple headwinds and are likely to remain elevated. U.S. equities stand to benefit from sustained AI-driven momentum and reduced tariff disruptions, especially sectors previously hurt by tariffs—such as consumer staples and industrials—which may see stronger rebounds.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsTechFlow news, on January 10, according to Jinshi Data, a research report from Founder Securities stated that December's non-farm data presented mixed signals. The U.S. labor market remains in a moderate downtrend overall, but the marginal improvement in unemployment rate provides the Federal Reserve with more reasons to stay cautious in January. Coupled with the possibility that the Supreme Court may soon declare IEEPA tariffs unconstitutional, this could be short-term bullish for U.S. equities and the dollar, while bearish for U.S. Treasuries. Indicators such as new job additions, job vacancy rate, and hourly wage growth suggest that the U.S. labor market remained relatively weak in December; however, the slight decline in the unemployment rate was one of the few positive signs. Based on interest rate futures and Treasury movements, markets now price in no rate cut by the Fed in January, with the earliest possible easing potentially starting in June. Meanwhile, if the Supreme Court rules IEEPA tariffs unconstitutional, economic outlook could marginally improve and inflationary pressures weaken, though fiscal deficits may widen. Under the combination of a non-urgent Fed rate cut stance and cooling tariffs, short-term Treasuries face multiple headwinds and are likely to remain elevated. U.S. equities could benefit from sustained AI sector strength and reduced tariff disruptions, especially sectors previously hurt by tariffs—such as consumer staples and industrials—which may see higher elasticity.
