TechFlow news, on January 10, according to Jinshi Data, a research report from Founder Securities stated that December's non-farm data presented mixed signals. The U.S. labor market remains in a moderate downtrend overall, but the marginal improvement in unemployment rate provides the Federal Reserve with more reasons to stay cautious in January. Coupled with the possibility that the Supreme Court may soon declare IEEPA tariffs unconstitutional, this could be short-term bullish for U.S. equities and the dollar, while bearish for U.S. Treasuries. Indicators such as new job additions, job vacancy rate, and hourly wage growth suggest that the U.S. labor market remained relatively weak in December; however, the slight decline in the unemployment rate was one of the few positive signs. Based on interest rate futures and Treasury movements, markets now price in no rate cut by the Fed in January, with the earliest possible easing potentially starting in June. Meanwhile, if the Supreme Court rules IEEPA tariffs unconstitutional, economic outlook could marginally improve and inflationary pressures weaken, though fiscal deficits may widen. Under the combination of a non-urgent Fed rate cut stance and cooling tariffs, short-term Treasuries face multiple headwinds and are likely to remain elevated. U.S. equities could benefit from sustained AI sector strength and reduced tariff disruptions, especially sectors previously hurt by tariffs—such as consumer staples and industrials—which may see higher elasticity.
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